Forecasting of Future Medical Care Expenditure in Japan Using a System Dynamics Model

Abstract

Background The aim of this study was to construct a system dynamics (SD) model to estimate the future medical care expenditure and to address the dynamic issues of health care that should be resolved. In particular, the measures for promoting the spread of generic drug (GE drug) usage in Japan and reducing cancer-related medical expenses were investigated regarding their future impact on medical finances. Methods The SD model was constructed from FY 2018 to FY 2050. The change in the future GE drug quantity share was analyzed by using a regression equation. The impact of the increase in medical expense for cancer and the change in the future national medical care expenditure were also estimated. Results The annual total medical care expenditure in FY 2050 would arrive at 58.9–64.2 trillion JPY (US$ 535.1–584.0 billion) (1.3–1.5 times higher than that in FY 2018) with different trends in age groups. The cumulative total medical care expenditure was expected to decrease by about 787.0–989.4 billion JPY (US$ 7.2–9.0 billion) if the impact of the spread of GE drug usage was considered. On the other hand, due to the continuous increase in the cancer-related medical expense, the cumulative total medical care expenditure was estimated to increase about 7554.3–11715.0 billion JPY (US$ 68.7–106.5 billion). Conclusions If the cancer-related medical expense continues to increase in the future, an increase of 686.4–1104.2 billion JPY (US$ 6.2–10.0 billion) in FY 2050 is expected which suggests that this disease field should be prioritized regarding the measures to maintain medical finances.

System dynamics modeling for cancer prevention and control: A systematic review

“…People were the primary unit being modeled in 50% of the studies (n = 16) [34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49], while 16% modeled patient experience or behavior (n = 5) [50][51][52][53][54]. Other primary units modeled include cells (n = 4; 13%) [33, [55][56][57], environmental contaminants (n = 4; 13%) [58][59][60][61], currency (n = 2; 6%) [62,63], and web search queries (n = 1; 3%) [64]. The abstracted characteristics of all studies included in this review are available in S1 Table . Study topics were clustered around several themes: Eight studies (25%) focused on cancer screening, each of which focused on a different type of cancer or associated condition (e.g., Lynch syndrome, anal dysplasia).…”

“…Of the ten studies discussing detection, no two related to screening for the same type of cancer. Topics of the remaining articles were heterogeneous and included cancer disparities [48,54], treatment workflows [45,49], healthcare service utilization or cost [51,63], public awareness of diseases [64], and survivor quality of life [50].…”

Japan’s approval of oral abortion pills: A new era of opportunities and challenges in aligning with global standards

“… 13 In this context, alternatives must be considered, such as the provision of services by other trained health professionals or the establishment of medical centers in isolated regions. Nevertheless, despite these inherent challenges, telemedicine offers clear advantages in terms of accessibility and cost-effectiveness, 9 – 11 and these strengths may be especially advantageous in Japan, where rising healthcare costs and uneven distribution of healthcare providers, particularly physicians, are major issues, 14 , 15 and therefore, an active discussion is needed for its introduction.…”