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The paper empirically examines the causal interactions between Chinese financial development and economic growth using the perspective of complex systems as a metaphor in an attempt to provide a better understanding of the co-evolution of China's real and financial sectors. Using Hsiao's version of the Granger causality tests, the empirical results support a complex set of bidirectional causality between the financial development proxies and economic growth variables. Despite numerous alleged financial intermediation's inefficiencies, bidirectional causality would suggest a coherent and effective finance-growth ecosystem.Financial development, economic growth, financial intermediation, China, granger causality, ecosystems, complex systems,

Background The aim of this study was to construct a system dynamics (SD) model to estimate the future medical care expenditure and to address the dynamic issues of health care that should be resolved. In particular, the measures for promoting the spread of generic drug (GE drug) usage in Japan and reducing cancer-related medical expenses were investigated regarding their future impact on medical finances. Methods The SD model was constructed from FY 2018 to FY 2050. The change in the future GE drug quantity share was analyzed by using a regression equation. The impact of the increase in medical expense for cancer and the change in the future national medical care expenditure were also estimated. Results The annual total medical care expenditure in FY 2050 would arrive at 58.9–64.2 trillion JPY (US$ 535.1–584.0 billion) (1.3–1.5 times higher than that in FY 2018) with different trends in age groups. The cumulative total medical care expenditure was expected to decrease by about 787.0–989.4 billion JPY (US$ 7.2–9.0 billion) if the impact of the spread of GE drug usage was considered. On the other hand, due to the continuous increase in the cancer-related medical expense, the cumulative total medical care expenditure was estimated to increase about 7554.3–11715.0 billion JPY (US$ 68.7–106.5 billion). Conclusions If the cancer-related medical expense continues to increase in the future, an increase of 686.4–1104.2 billion JPY (US$ 6.2–10.0 billion) in FY 2050 is expected which suggests that this disease field should be prioritized regarding the measures to maintain medical finances.

This study aimed at assessing the effects of bilateral trade intensity by export categories in the China–Africa trade links on economic growth in Africa, by using a production function approach in a panel system GMM estimator. The findings suggest that conditional on the level of the logistics index and China’s FDI to Africa, economic growth tends to be greater in countries with higher index of trade intensity in manufactured exports to China. Another noticeable finding is that the potential contribution of manufactured exports to economic growth is higher than that of primary exports; African countries are constrained in their trade expansion with China by low-logistics quality. Surprisingly, the current logistics infrastructure, as low quality as they are, remain somehow adequate for primary commodity exports to China. JEL Codes: F14, F43, O19, O47, O55