Forecasting range shifts of a cold‐adapted species under climate change: are genomic and ecological diversity within species crucial for future resilience?

Abstract

Cold-adapted taxa are experiencing severe range shifts due to climate change and are expected to suffer a significant reduction of their climatically suitable habitats in the next few decades. However, it has been proposed that taxa with sufficient standing genetic and ecologic diversity will better withstand climate change. These taxa are typically more broadly distributed in geographic and ecological niche space, therefore they are likely to endure higher levels of populations loss than more restricted, less diverse taxa before the effects of those losses impact their overall diversity and resilience. Here, we explore the potential relationship between intraspecific genetic and ecological diversity and future resilience, using the cold-adapted plant Primula farinosa. We employ high-throughput sequencing to assess the genomic diversity of phylogeographic lineages in P. farinosa. Additionally, we use current climatic variables to define niche breadth and niche differentiation across lineages. Finally, we calibrate species distribution models (SDMs) and project the climatic preferences of each lineage on future climate to predict lineagespecific shifts in climatically suitable habitats. Our study predicts relative persistence of future suitable habitats for the most genetically and ecologically diverse lineages of the cold-adapted P. farinosa, but significant reduction of them for two out of its four lineages. While we do not provide specific experiments aimed at identifying the causal links between genetic diversity and resilience to climate change, our results indicate that greater genetic diversity and wider ecological breadth may buffer species responses to rapid climatic changes. This study further highlights the importance of integrating knowledge of intraspecific diversity for predicting species fate in response to climate change.

The future of cold‐adapted plants in changing climates: Micranthes (Saxifragaceae) as a case study

“…Although we do not have information on the genetic diversity of these species, the correlation between increased genetic diversity and increased range size allows us to hypothesize that these two circumpolar species may have increased genetic diversity. High levels of genetic diversity within a species have been correlated with wider ecological breadth, and consequently, these species are thought to be able to cope with a broader range of climatic changes (Theodoridis, Patsiou, Randin, & Conti, ). In spite of the fact that these species are predicted to maintain large geographic areas despite changing climate, it is notable that less than half of the current habitat for both species overlaps with predicted future habitat (Table ).…”

The role of cryptic diversity and its environmental correlates in global conservation status assessments: Insights from the threatened bird's‐eye primrose (Primula farinosa L.)

“…Our sampling design aimed at representing most genetic and ecogeographic variation within P. farinosa (Albert et al, ; Gotelli & Stanton‐Geddes, ). For its European distribution, we used 57 populations reported previously (Theodoridis et al, , ) and selected one to three individuals per population based on the size of the available genomic data (i.e., maximizing the total number of sequencing reads per individual). For its Asian distribution, we sampled 14 populations for the first time (two individuals per population) across Mongolia.…”

“…We first calculated niche overlap between genetic groups using Schoener's D similarity index (Schoener, ), a metric that ranges from 0 (completely discordant niches) to 1 (identical niches). We then defined a background extent for each genetic group using a 20 km buffer zone around the sampling localities (Theodoridis et al, ) and tested whether the ecological niches of the groups tend to be more similar to each other than would be expected by chance using background (or niche) similarity tests (Broennimann et al, ; Warren, Glor, & Turelli, ). These tests randomly shift the density of occurrences in one range and calculate similarity (Schoener's D ) using the observed niche from the other range.…”

“…Regarding its conservation status, P. farinosa has gone extinct or is facing extinction mainly caused by human‐driven changes in its wetland microhabitats and is included in the IUCN Red Lists of several European countries (Croatia: Topić & Stančić, ; Ukraine: Didukh, ; Hungary: Salamon‐Albert & Morschhauser, ; Poland: Gajewski, Sitek, Stolarczyk, Nowak, & Kapała, ; Denmark: Sørensen, Larsen, Orabi, & ørgaard, ; United K ingdom: Cheffings et al, ; Slovakia: Turis et al, ; Romania: Coldea, Stoica, Puşcaş, Ursu, & Oprea, ). Additionally, the species is predicted to suffer a dramatic reduction in its climatically suitable habitats in certain regions across its European range (Theodoridis, Patsiou, Randin, & Conti, ).…”

A novel tool to assess the effect of intraspecific spatial niche variation on species distribution shifts under climate change

“…Local models are built separately for each partition and their predictions are combined across the entire range of the species (D'Amen, Zimmermann, & Pearman, 2013;Ikeda et al, 2017;Pearman, D'Amen, Graham, Thuiller, & Zimmermann, 2010). These studies indicate that such local approaches can significantly alter model outcomes (Smith et al, 2019;Theodoridis, Patsiou, Randin, & Conti, 2018). However, detailed information on relevant intraspecific differentiation is available for few species only.…”