Forecasting technology insertion concurrent with design refresh planning for COTS-based electronic systems

Singh, Paramvir; Sandborn, Peter

doi:10.1109/rams.2005.1408387

Cited by 5 publications

(12 citation statements)

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“…Although the data about the expected production lifetimes of parts available during a system's design phase may be incomplete and/or uncertain, it will allow the forecast of obsolescence and subsequent development of strategic approaches that will reduce sustainment costs [4,22].…”

Section: Obsolescence Forecastingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This approach analyzes the BoM of a product and grades for each component the likelihood of becoming obsolete [4,22].…”

Section: Obsolescence Management Tools Comparisonmentioning

confidence: 99%

“… High costs associated with their redesign because of the strict requalification requirements [22]  Little or no control over their supply chain because of their low production volumes [4,13,14,22]  Field life (sustainment) costs that are much higher than the original purchase price [22] These systems are designed for long-term sustainment and are usually composed of low volume complex electronic. These two characteristics exposes sustainment-dominated systems to obsolescence [6,12].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Obsolescence management for long-life contracts: state of the art and future trends

Rojo

Roy

Shehab

2009

Int J Adv Manuf Technol

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This paper provides a comprehensive literature review on the problem of obsolescence in "sustainment-dominated systems" that require support for many decades. Research on this topic continues to grow as a result of the high impact of obsolescence on the in-service phase of long-term projects. Research on obsolescence also seeks to understand how it can be managed, mitigated and resolved. The paper aims to clarify and classify the different activities that may be included in an obsolescence management planning, taking into account not only electronic components but also other aspects of the system such as mechanical components, software, materials, skills and tooling. The literature review shows that although there are many commercial tools available that support the obsolescence management during the in-service phase of the life cycle of a system, little research has been done to forecast the costs incurred.

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Section: Obsolescence Forecastingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This approach analyzes the BoM of a product and grades for each component the likelihood of becoming obsolete [4,22].…”

Section: Obsolescence Management Tools Comparisonmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Obsolescence management for long-life contracts: state of the art and future trends

Rojo

Roy

Shehab

2009

Int J Adv Manuf Technol

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“… Strict requalification requirements, which lead to high redesign costs, [6]  Low production volumes, which lead to little or no control over the associated supply chain [4,6,7,8], and  Higher sustainment costs compared to original cost of the system [6].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…6 shows the impact of weight assigned to "implementation time" goal on the rank order. The current weight is just under 0.2 and the rank order changes when weight on…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Selection of obsolescence resolution strategy based on a multi criteria decision model

Pingle

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Multi‐objective approach to forecast design refresh time due to COTS obsolescence

Özkan

Bulkan

2022

Systems Engineering

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The purpose of this study is to provide program managers and systems engineers with a novel algorithm in determining the design refresh time (DRT) of sustainmentdominated systems due to COTS obsolescence. Most of the research done so far has focused on cost optimization. The main contribution of the study is two-fold. First, besides cost optimization, we have introduced efficiency optimization within a balanced approach to determine the DRT, under multiple objectives. Second, we used a set-based approach over the hypervolume quality values of solutions rather than population-based Pareto solutions. We proposed a discrete-time simulation model by using Multi-Objective Evolutionary Algorithms where the deterioration over the quality values of Pareto solution sets is used as an indicator for a DRT. We supported the proposed mathematical model in theory with empirical findings from a case study for a sustainment-dominated Naval Command and Control System that was designed in 2004 and deployed in 2007. We ran the simulation as for 2007 and conducted an analysis over the cost and operational efficiency objectives to compare the situation experienced in real life against the simulation outputs of the proposed model. The results revealed that not only the total life cycle cost but also efficient operational sustainability of a system would be increased significantly if the system had gone through design refreshes as proposed by the model. We showed that the deterioration of the Pareto optimal solutions' hypervolume quality values over time is an effective marker to decide the optimal DRT under conflicting multiple objectives.

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Forecasting technology insertion concurrent with design refresh planning for COTS-based electronic systems

Cited by 5 publications

References 4 publications

Obsolescence management for long-life contracts: state of the art and future trends

Obsolescence management for long-life contracts: state of the art and future trends

Selection of obsolescence resolution strategy based on a multi criteria decision model

Multi‐objective approach to forecast design refresh time due to COTS obsolescence

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