Forecasting temporal world recovery in air transport markets in the presence of large economic shocks: The case of COVID-19

Gudmundsson, Sveinn Vidar; Cattaneo, Mattia; Redondi, Renato

doi:10.1016/j.jairtraman.2020.102007

Cited by 142 publications

(92 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…The uncertainties of aviation management and the related unprecedented high costs burdening international passengers can be avoided given sound and comprehensive evaluations. Thirdly, since the influence of the COVID-19 on the aviation sector is likely to last at least 2–4 years ( Gudmundsson et al, 2021 ), in addition to the implementation of the stringent inbound case-control measures as examined in this paper, the aviation sector should also take a more proactive role, such as through international collaboration and adopting scientific assessments, as advocated by Sun et al (2021) . These strategies will help improve the aviation resilience to the Pandemic through more rational, integrated and optimization decision-making and operational management.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

The effect of aviation responses to the control of imported COVID-19 cases

Meng

Chen

2021

Journal of Air Transport Management

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The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has a lasting and unprecedented negative impact on the global aviation industry. While countries such as China have successfully curbed the domestic outbreak of the virus due to various restrictive and preventive measures, the challenge of avoiding imported cases remains. More importantly, it is still unclear to what extent the implemented aviation emergency responses have effectively mitigated the transmission risk of the virus. This paper provides an empirical assessment of aviation responses to the control of imported COVID-19 cases, with a focus on the following three strategies: the “circuit breaker” policy, the “negative Nucleic Acid testing (NAT)”, and the “double negative tests” requirement. Non-recursive structural equation models with latent variables were applied to detailed international flight data and individual epidemic survey data of Guangzhou, China, between May 1 and November 30, 2020. The results show that the “double negative tests” measure has a positive effect on eliminating the number of SARS-CoV-2 positive carriers, while the effects of “circuit breaker” and its co-intervention with “negative NAT” are minimal. This study provides important implications to civil aviation agencies for medium and long-term risk control of imported cases. Specifically, although the circuit breaker mechanism does have a moderate influence on the risk control of imported COVID-19 cases, it may be more effective to carefully maintain stringent pre-boarding screening and testing continuously to curb the number of imported cases.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

The effect of aviation responses to the control of imported COVID-19 cases

Meng

Chen

2021

Journal of Air Transport Management

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“…Towards the end of 2020, the IATA estimated revenues at $328 billion, with over $118 billion in losses for airlines in 2020 and >$20 billion in losses as an early estimate for 2021 ( Annual, 2020 ). However, there are several other independent estimates for the financial burden of the pandemic on the air transportation sector ( Dube et al, 2021 ); ( Gudmundsson et al, 2021 ) . Government support in the form of economic bailouts has also been an important issue.…”

Section: Covid-19 Impacts On the Civil Aviation Industrymentioning

confidence: 99%

Airport pandemic response: An assessment of impacts and strategies after one year with COVID-19

Arora¹,

Tuchen²,

Nazemi³

et al. 2021

Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives

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The COVID-19 pandemic has caused an unprecedented crisis for the air transportation industry, affecting millions of aviation users and stakeholders. As the aviation sector has faced disease outbreaks and extreme events before—albeit not at the same scale—and will, in all likelihood, face them again, we provide an assessment in this study that a) gives an overview of the effects of the pandemic, b) categorizes the response mechanisms that were observed, and c) proposes a framework for a coordinated global response to future disease outbreaks. We highlight that of the many lessons, recommendations, and suggestions that emerged during previous outbreaks, few were introduced effectively into civil aviation practices and operations. Based on multiple data sources for passengers, cargo, and flight schedules, we assess the impact of COVID-19 on the global aviation industry and compare the data of some prominent airports to highlight the need for a coordinated response to effectively deal with future disruptions. As global aviation navigates its ongoing recovery, we discuss different responses during the pandemic including guidelines issued by bodies such as International Civil Aviation Organization, operational decisions such as closing terminals, increased cleaning frequencies, and mask mandates etc. We emphasize the need for resilience to accommodate disease outbreaks in future planning, design, and preparedness strategies for airports and airlines. We further argue that the existing civil aviation system needs a coordinated global response mechanism to combat future outbreaks and propose a framework with a threat response matrix to keep aviation safe and operational during future pandemics and mitigate socioeconomic fallout.

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“…A redesign of the control procedures, therefore, becomes necessary [41]. Forecasts attest to a recovery of the air transport sector by 2022 for up to six years, although with a considerable influence of the geographical location, such as the Asia Pacific region expected to be the one that would have the fastest recovery, followed by North America and Europe [42]. The airlines with more fleets and a greater diversity of aircraft are certainly going to be the most flexible to this outbreak [43].…”

Section: Aspects Of the Covid-19 Pandemic In Relation To Air Transportmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Covid-19 Pandemic on Air Transport: Overview and Implications

Arena¹,

Aprea²

2021

AEER

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The current situation of the COVID-19 pandemic has led to multiple changes in the international market as well as in the lifestyle of people worldwide. The transport sector has undoubtedly been one of the most affected sectors due to restrictions imposed by the governments across the world to protect the health of their citizens, particularly the restrictions imposed on the operation of airlines. On the other hand, the reduction in travel by means of transport has contributed in part to the improvement in the environmental conditions on account of reduction in the levels of CO2 emissions and pollution. The present paper discusses the major consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic on the aviation industry. The data and critical observations presented in this paper were collected from the detailed studies published on this crucial topic and thus provide a broad overview to the reader.

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Forecasting temporal world recovery in air transport markets in the presence of large economic shocks: The case of COVID-19

Cited by 142 publications

References 35 publications

The effect of aviation responses to the control of imported COVID-19 cases

The effect of aviation responses to the control of imported COVID-19 cases

Airport pandemic response: An assessment of impacts and strategies after one year with COVID-19

Impact of Covid-19 Pandemic on Air Transport: Overview and Implications

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