The effect of aviation responses to the control of imported COVID-19 cases

Abstract

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has a lasting and unprecedented negative impact on the global aviation industry. While countries such as China have successfully curbed the domestic outbreak of the virus due to various restrictive and preventive measures, the challenge of avoiding imported cases remains. More importantly, it is still unclear to what extent the implemented aviation emergency responses have effectively mitigated the transmission risk of the virus. This paper provides an empirical assessment of aviation responses to the control of imported COVID-19 cases, with a focus on the following three strategies: the “circuit breaker” policy, the “negative Nucleic Acid testing (NAT)”, and the “double negative tests” requirement. Non-recursive structural equation models with latent variables were applied to detailed international flight data and individual epidemic survey data of Guangzhou, China, between May 1 and November 30, 2020. The results show that the “double negative tests” measure has a positive effect on eliminating the number of SARS-CoV-2 positive carriers, while the effects of “circuit breaker” and its co-intervention with “negative NAT” are minimal. This study provides important implications to civil aviation agencies for medium and long-term risk control of imported cases. Specifically, although the circuit breaker mechanism does have a moderate influence on the risk control of imported COVID-19 cases, it may be more effective to carefully maintain stringent pre-boarding screening and testing continuously to curb the number of imported cases.

Mathematics learning orientation: Mathematical creative thinking ability or creative disposition?

“…Subsequently, the data underwent inferential statistical analysis utilizing Structural Equation Modeling (SEM), employing the Non-Recursive Model using Linear Structural Relationship (LISREL) software developed by Karl Jöreskorg and Dag Sörbom from Uppsala University. The rationale for selecting the Non-Recursive Model stems from the prediction that the two variables under investigation exhibit a reciprocal cause-and-effect relationship or lack a clearly defined causal direction (Bagozzi, 1980;Felson & Bohrnstedt, 1979;Jöreskog & Sörbom, 1993;Vacca & Zoia, 2019;Young, 1998;Yu & Chen, 2021).…”

On the contagion leakage via incoming flights during China’s aviation policies in the fight against COVID-19

“…These increases proved that key drivers of cargo business remained supportive although there were rebounds of the COVID-19 outbreak in some regions ( Ho et al, 2021 ). The effects of three interventional aviation policies on restraining viral transmission from international flights were evaluated by Yu and Chen (2021) : the Circuit Breaker mechanism, boarding control requirements of “negative NAT”, and the double negative tests. The data was from one Chinese airport: 996 inbound passengers arriving at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport, together with a seven-month flight data (May 1–November 30, 2020).…”

Air transportation and COVID-19: A tale with three episodes

“…Air traffic of passenger transport in China’s domestic market had revived to pre-pandemic level under a series of management expedients, including the adjustment of Circuit Breaker measures. Yu and Chen [56] utilized non-recursive structural equation models to evaluate the single/joint executions of three air traffic strategies in China, revealing that the conjunction of Circuit Breaker and double negative tests contributed to curbing the importation risk of COVID-19. This study, however, analyzed only one airport for the first six months after imposing Circuit Breaker.…”