Forecasting the effects of global warming on radial growth of subalpine trees at the upper and lower distribution limits in central Japan

Takahashi, Koichi; Okuhara, Isao

doi:10.1007/s10584-012-0547-9

Cited by 14 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 47 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…In contrast to comparable studies that divided the entire data set once into two periods for calibration and verification (Laroque & Smith 2003, Takahashi & Okuhara 2013, we randomly selected half of the observation years for calibration and the remaining half for verification and repeated this procedure many times. This results in a large number of regression models with the same predictors but different coefficients, depending on the chosen calibration years, and allows a comprehensive evaluation of the robustness of the final model and the quality of the predictors by analyzing the statistical spread across the calibration-verification runs.…”

Section: Calibration and Verificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For example, the inclusion of November precipitation of the previous year for beech at the central site in the final model is difficult to explain, and it may be that a small number of predictors were retained because of statistical mathematics only. To avoid the inclusion of spurious interaction terms, the models could have been constructed with a restricted number of exclusively significant climate variables resulting from foregoing correlation and/or response function analysis (Takahashi & Okuhara 2013), including the removal of inter-correlations. However, we favored to include all variables into model building to allow for capturing potential lag effects or hidden interactions between environmental factors affecting tree-ring growth.…”

Section: Calibration and Verificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…There is a selection of approaches for modeling tree growth ranging from relatively simply models using climatic data only (Laroque & Smith 2003, Goldblum & Rigg 2005, Takahashi & Okuhara 2013) to more complex ones using additional ecophysiological variables as predictors for regression equations (Rathgeber et al 2005, Girardin et al 2008. For instance, Laroque & Smith (2003) and Takahashi & Okuhara (2013) used temperature and precipitation to predict tree-ring width, while Girardin et al (2008) extended this empirical approach by incorporating process-based physiological model results into the regression equations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For instance, Laroque & Smith (2003) and Takahashi & Okuhara (2013) used temperature and precipitation to predict tree-ring width, while Girardin et al (2008) extended this empirical approach by incorporating process-based physiological model results into the regression equations. Rathgeber et al (2005) argue that empirical models based solely on meteorological variables are of weak predictive power, because of their limited ability to properly factor in the water budget.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Impact of climate change on tree-ring growth of Scots pine, common beech and pedunculate oak in northeastern Germany

Bauwe¹,

Jurasinski²,

Scharnweber³

et al. 2016

iForest

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Tree growth depends, among other factors, largely on the prevailing climatic conditions. Therefore, changes to tree growth patterns are to be expected under climate change. Here, we analyze the tree-ring growth response of three major European tree species to projected future climate across a climatic (mostly precipitation) gradient in northeastern Germany. We used monthly data for temperature, precipitation, and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) over multiple time scales (1, 3, 6, 12, and 24 months) to construct models of tree-ring growth for Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) at three pure stands, and for common beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) and pedunculate oak (Quercus robur L.) at three mature mixed stands. The regression models were derived using a two-step approach based on partial least squares regression (PLSR) to extract potentially well explaining variables followed by ordinary least squares regression (OLSR) to consolidate the models to the least number of variables while retaining high explanatory power. The stability of the models was tested through a comprehensive calibration-verification scheme. All models were successfully verified with R²s ranging from 0.21 for the western pine stand to 0.62 for the beech stand in the east. For growth prediction, climate data forecasted until 2100 by the regional climate model WETTREG2010 based on the A1B Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenario was used. For beech and oak, growth rates will likely decrease until the end of the 21 st century. For pine, modeled growth trends vary and range from a slight growth increase to a weak decrease in growth rates. The climatic gradient across the study area will possibly affect the future growth of oak with larger growth reductions towards the drier east. For beech, site-specific adaptations seem to override the influence of the climatic gradient. We conclude that Scots pine has great potential to remain resilient to projected climate change without any greater impairment, whereas common beech and pedunculate oak will likely face lesser growth under the expected warmer and dryer climate conditions. The results call for an adaptation of forest management to mitigate the negative effects of climate change for beech and oak.

show abstract

Section: Calibration and Verificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Calibration and Verificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Impact of climate change on tree-ring growth of Scots pine, common beech and pedunculate oak in northeastern Germany

Bauwe¹,

Jurasinski²,

Scharnweber³

et al. 2016

iForest

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Possible scenarios for forest ecosystems include changes in species composition, including the disappearance of multiple taxa (Thomas et al 2004), some of them key or ''foundation'' species (Ellison et al 2005), upward shifting of ecosystems (Parmesan and Yohe 2003), and extended die-off phenomena (Anderegg et al 2013). Plant demography studies based on permanent plots (Gustafson and Sturtevant 2013), tree rings (Takahashi and Okuhara 2013), and palaeoecological data (Tinner et al 2013) have been used to predict the future distribution of species and ecosystems, but some questions still remain. For instance, the two phylogenetically similar pinyon species Pinus edulis Engelm.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tree growth, cambial phenology, and wood anatomy of limber pine at a Great Basin (USA) mountain observatory

Ziaco

Biondi

2016

Trees

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Key message Anatomical features of Pinus flexilis under warmer and drier conditions along an altitudinal transect revealed a shorter growing season and shifts in the timing of wood formation. Abstract Future climate change driven by greenhouse warming is expected to increase both frequency and severity of drought events and heat waves. Possible consequences for forest ecosystems include changes in foundation species and extended die-off phenomena. We investigated tree growth under the set of biotic and abiotic conditions, and their interactions, that are expected in a drier and warmer world using mountain observatories designed to capture elevation gradients in the Great Basin of North America. Stem cambial activity, wood anatomy, and radial growth of limber pine (Pinus flexilis) were examined at two different elevations using automated dendrometers and repeated histological microcores in 2013-2014. Mean annual temperature was 3.7°cooler at the higher site, which received 170 mm year -1 of precipitation more than the lower site. Mean air temperature thresholds for xylogenesis computed using logistic regression were 7.7 and 12.0°C at the higher and lower site, respectively. No differences in the onset date of cambial activity were found under such naturally contrasted conditions, with the global change analog provided by the lower site. Growing season was shortened by increasing drought stress at the lower site, thereby reducing xylem production. Stem expansion was only detectable by automated dendrometers at the higher site. Using elevation to simulate climatic changes and their realized ecosystem feedbacks, it was possible to express tree responses in terms of xylem phenology and anatomical adaptations.

show abstract

Effects of climatic conditions on annual shoot length and tree-ring width of alpine dwarf pine Pinus pumila in central Japan

Takahashi

Aoki

2015

J Plant Res

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This study compared the effects of climatic conditions on annual shoot length (ASL) and tree-ring width (TRW) of alpine dwarf pine Pinus pumila in central Japan, by using dendrochronological techniques. Chronologies of ASL (1951-2009) and TRW (1972-2009) were standardized to remove non-climatic signals, and correlation tests were done for non-standardized observed values and standardized indices with monthly temperatures and precipitation. Monthly mean temperatures from March to October, except for July, increased during 1951‒2009; observed values and a standardized index of ASL increased during this period. For the rate of increase in ASL, the standardized index was lower than the observed values. However, these values of TRW showed no trends. The observed values and standardized index of TRW positively correlated with temperatures of the beginning of the growing season of the current year. The observed values of ASL positively correlated with temperatures during the growing season of the previous and current years. However, the standardized index of ASL positively correlated with only June temperatures of the previous and current years. The different results of ASL between observed values and standardized indices indicate that many significant correlations of observed values were attributable to increasing trends of temperature and ASL. This study suggests that standardized ASL of P. pumila tended to increase greater than TRW, that high temperatures at the beginning of the growing season increases ASL and TRW, and that analyzing observed values of ASL may overestimate the effects of temperature on ASL of P. pumila.

show abstract

Forecasting the effects of global warming on radial growth of subalpine trees at the upper and lower distribution limits in central Japan

Cited by 14 publications

References 47 publications

Impact of climate change on tree-ring growth of Scots pine, common beech and pedunculate oak in northeastern Germany

Impact of climate change on tree-ring growth of Scots pine, common beech and pedunculate oak in northeastern Germany

Tree growth, cambial phenology, and wood anatomy of limber pine at a Great Basin (USA) mountain observatory

Effects of climatic conditions on annual shoot length and tree-ring width of alpine dwarf pine Pinus pumila in central Japan

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About