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Tree growth depends, among other factors, largely on the prevailing climatic conditions. Therefore, changes to tree growth patterns are to be expected under climate change. Here, we analyze the tree-ring growth response of three major European tree species to projected future climate across a climatic (mostly precipitation) gradient in northeastern Germany. We used monthly data for temperature, precipitation, and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) over multiple time scales (1, 3, 6, 12, and 24 months) to construct models of tree-ring growth for Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) at three pure stands, and for common beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) and pedunculate oak (Quercus robur L.) at three mature mixed stands. The regression models were derived using a two-step approach based on partial least squares regression (PLSR) to extract potentially well explaining variables followed by ordinary least squares regression (OLSR) to consolidate the models to the least number of variables while retaining high explanatory power. The stability of the models was tested through a comprehensive calibration-verification scheme. All models were successfully verified with R²s ranging from 0.21 for the western pine stand to 0.62 for the beech stand in the east. For growth prediction, climate data forecasted until 2100 by the regional climate model WETTREG2010 based on the A1B Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenario was used. For beech and oak, growth rates will likely decrease until the end of the 21 st century. For pine, modeled growth trends vary and range from a slight growth increase to a weak decrease in growth rates. The climatic gradient across the study area will possibly affect the future growth of oak with larger growth reductions towards the drier east. For beech, site-specific adaptations seem to override the influence of the climatic gradient. We conclude that Scots pine has great potential to remain resilient to projected climate change without any greater impairment, whereas common beech and pedunculate oak will likely face lesser growth under the expected warmer and dryer climate conditions. The results call for an adaptation of forest management to mitigate the negative effects of climate change for beech and oak.

This study aimed to assess trends of hydro-meteorological variables in the Upper Omo-Ghibe river basin, Ethiopia. Data records from eleven rainfall, eight air temperature, and five streamflow stations between 1981 to 2008 were investigated. The trends and change points were evaluated for different periods of time depending on data availability. Mann-Kendall and Pettit tests were used to identify trends and change points at a 5% significance level. The tests were applied to mean annual, monthly and seasonal time scales. Rainfall exhibited statistically decreasing trends at a mean annual time scale, while seasonal rainfall depicted heterogeneous results in both directions. For the majority of the stations, air temperature showed statistically significant increasing trends. The magnitude of change in temperature for mean annual, wet and dry season has increased about 0.48, 0.46, and 0.61 °C per decade for Jimma station. The Pettit test revealed that the late 1980s and 1990s were the change points. There is generally a decreasing trend in streamflow. The decline in annual rainfall and rise in temperature affected the streamflow negatively. Overall, the results indicate that trend sand change point times varied considerably across the stations and catchments. The identified significant trends can help to support planning decisions for water management.

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