Forecasting the limits to the availability and diversity of global conventional oil supply

Hallock, John L.; Tharakan, Pradeep J.; Hall, Charles A. S.; Jefferson, Michael; Wu, Wei

doi:10.1016/j.energy.2004.04.043

Cited by 94 publications

(52 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…These may increase yield, but if the fertilizer is removed yields probably would fall to levels below their original pre-fertilization value because site quality has declined (Hall and Hall 1993;Hall et al 1998). Since N fertilizers are very energy intensive this may become a much larger issue in the future if energy prices increase greatly, especially after Ecuador ceases to be a net producer of petroleum (Hall et al 2003;Hallock et al 2004). …”

Section: Nutrient Balances and Agricultural Practicesmentioning

confidence: 98%

Nitrogen and phosphorus budgets for a tropical watershed impacted by agricultural land use: Guayas, Ecuador

et al. 2006

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Large-scale changes in land use are occurring in many tropical regions, with significant impacts on nitrogen and phosphorus biogeochemistry. In this study we examine the relationships between land use, anthropogenic nutrient inputs, and riverine nutrient exports in a major agricultural watershed of the Pacific coast of South America, the Guayas River basin of Ecuador. We present comprehensive nutrient budgets for nitrogen (N) and phosphorous (P) for the Guayas River basin and 10 sub-watersheds. We quantify the four major anthropogenic nutrient fluxes into and out of the region: N and P fertilizer application, N fixation by leguminous crops, net import/export of N and P in agricultural products (food and feed), and atmospheric deposition. We also estimate inputs of N from biological N fixation in forests and of P from weathering sources in soils and bedrock. The sum of these sources represents net inputs of N and P to each watershed region. Overall, synthetic fertilizers are the largest input to the Guayas Basin for N (53%) and P (57%), and the largest outputs are N and P in crops. Losses of N and P in river export account for 14-38% of total N and P inputs, and there is significant accumulation of N and P, or unmeasured forms of N and P export, in most of the sub-basins. Nutrient balances are indicative of the sustainability of land use practices in a region, where a negative balance of N or P indicates nutrient depletion and subsequent loss of soil fertility, yield, and economic viability. Although the nutrient balance of the entire Guayas Basin is positive, there are negative or near zero balances in two sub-watersheds with extensive banana, coffee and permanent crops. In these basins, degradation of soil quality may be occurring due to these net nutrient losses. Our data show that nutrients are leaving the basin primarily as export crops, with riverine losses of nutrients smaller than crop exports. Nonetheless, there is a direct relationship between nutrient inputs and river outputs, suggesting that agricultural management practices in the basin may have direct impacts on N and P delivery to the highly productive Guayas estuary.

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Section: Nutrient Balances and Agricultural Practicesmentioning

confidence: 98%

Nitrogen and phosphorus budgets for a tropical watershed impacted by agricultural land use: Guayas, Ecuador

et al. 2006

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“…Hallock et al (2004) project the course of conventional petroleum production for the case where recoverable conventional oil is equal to the USGS high estimate. The USGS high estimate is very close to Rogner's estimate of resources available from categories I-IV, so these Hallock projections are used as a proxy for production of conventional oil in the comparison.…”

Section: Calculation Three -Petroleum Substitutes From Other Fossil Fmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The adjustment procedure performed with the Hallock et al (2004) data amounts to an assumption that the share of unconventional oil production remains at the current percentage, because BP data include unconventional oil. Thus, the question we are able to ask with these data is: "if production of unconventional oil remains only at today's percentage of total oil production, how much synfuel would needed to meet IMAGE demand, and what would the carbon consequences of this be?"…”

Section: Calculation Three -Petroleum Substitutes From Other Fossil Fmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The USGS high estimate is very close to Rogner's estimate of resources available from categories I-IV, so these Hallock projections are used as a proxy for production of conventional oil in the comparison. The Hallock et al (2004) projection is also adjusted to match actual production of all fuels from 2000-2003, so that IMAGE and Hallock projections are normalized in the years 2000-2003.…”

Section: Calculation Three -Petroleum Substitutes From Other Fossil Fmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Data from Hallock et al (2004) are utilized to model production of conventional oil. Hallock et al (2004) project the course of conventional petroleum production for the case where recoverable conventional oil is equal to the USGS high estimate.…”

Section: Calculation Three -Petroleum Substitutes From Other Fossil Fmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Scraping the bottom of the barrel: greenhouse gas emission consequences of a transition to low-quality and synthetic petroleum resources

2007

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We investigate uncertainties about conventional petroleum resources and substitutes for conventional petroleum, focusing on the impact of these uncertainties on future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We use examples from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios as a baseline for comparison. The studied uncertainties include, (1) uncertainty in emissions factors for petroleum substitutes, (2) uncertainties resulting from poor knowledge of the amount of remaining conventional petroleum, and (3) uncertainties about the amount of production of petroleum substitutes from natural gas and coal feedstocks. We find that the potential effects of a transition to petroleum substitutes on GHG emissions are significant. A transition to low-quality and synthetic petroleum resources such as tar sands or coal-to-liquids synfuels could raise upstream GHG emissions by several gigatonnes of carbon (GtC) per year by mid-century unless mitigation steps are taken.

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The Hubbert diffusion process: Estimation via simulated annealing and variable neighborhood search procedures—application to forecasting peak oil production

Sant’Ana

Román-Román

Torres-Ruiz

2018

Appl Stoch Models Bus & Ind

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Accurately charting the progress of oil production is a problem of great current interest. Oil production is widely known to be cyclical: in any given system, after it reaches its peak, a decline will begin. With this in mind, Marion King Hubbert developed his peak theory in 1956 based on the bell-shaped curve that bears his name. In the present work, we consider a stochastic model based on the theory of diffusion processes and associated with the Hubbert curve. The problem of the maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters for this process is also considered. Since a complex system of equations appears, with a solution that cannot be guaranteed by classical numerical procedures, we suggest the use of metaheuristic optimization algorithms such as simulated annealing and variable neighborhood search. Some strategies are suggested for bounding the space of solutions, and a description is provided for the application of the algorithms selected. In the case of the variable neighborhood search algorithm, a hybrid method is proposed in which it is combined with simulated annealing. In order to validate the theory developed here, we also carry out some studies based on simulated data and consider 2 real crude oil production scenarios from Norway and Kazakhstan.

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Forecasting the limits to the availability and diversity of global conventional oil supply

Cited by 94 publications

References 23 publications

Nitrogen and phosphorus budgets for a tropical watershed impacted by agricultural land use: Guayas, Ecuador

Nitrogen and phosphorus budgets for a tropical watershed impacted by agricultural land use: Guayas, Ecuador

Scraping the bottom of the barrel: greenhouse gas emission consequences of a transition to low-quality and synthetic petroleum resources

The Hubbert diffusion process: Estimation via simulated annealing and variable neighborhood search procedures—application to forecasting peak oil production

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