Forecasting the Trend Analysis of Trade Balance of Pakistan: A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation

Peramalan Ekspor Dengan Hibrida Arima-Anfis

“…Hasil ramalannya memperlihatkan pertumbuhan ekspor akan semakin mengecil. Rafiq, Yun, & Ali, (2016) menggunakan ARIMA untuk memprediksi neraca perdagangan Pakistan dengan data dari tahun 1975 sampai 2015. Hasil penelitiannya menunjukkan bahwa kondisi neraca perdagangan Pakistan diprediksi memburuk dan perlu penanganan serius dari pembuat kebijakan di Pakistan.…”

Modeling and Forecasting Foreign Trade Values in Medical Devices

“…To our knowledge, there is a limited number of studies, including future estimation of imports and exports, [1][2][3][4][5][6] and study on the estimation of Turkey's medical device import and export has not been reported. The most detailed study comparing predictive models for medical device demand forecasting was conducted by Xu et al 7 The authors compared the predictive abilities of 5 prediction methods, the Naïve method, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), linear regression, back-propagate neural network (BPNN) support vector regression for the future prediction of medical device demand.…”

“…[8][9][10][11][12] Anatolyev et al proposed a decomposition approach for predicting foreign exchange, 5 and Rafiq et al introduced an investigation on forecasting the trend of trade balance of the target country. 6 In addition, some research companies, such as Business Management Institute and Evaluate Medtech, publish quarterly reports on analyzing medical device market and forecasting market size, which use demographic indicators and the known economic parameters, such as growth rate and gross domestic product. 7,8 However, to our knowledge, although there are some studies on forecasting foreign data, there is no study that proposes a model for forecasting medical device foreign trade values.…”