2022
DOI: 10.24191/mjoc.v7i1.14641
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Forecasting the Unemployment Rate in Malaysia During Covid-19 Pandemic Using Arima and Arfima Models

Abstract: The unemployment issue is one of the most common problems faced by many countries around the world. The unemployment rates in developed countries often fluctuate throughout time. Similarly, Malaysia is also affected by the inconsistent unemployment rate especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, in order to understand the trend better, ARIMA and ARFIMA were used to model and forecast the unemployment rate in Malaysia in this study. The dataset on the unemployment rate in Malaysia from January 2010 unt… Show more

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Cited by 3 publications
(4 citation statements)
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“…The Box-Jenkins technique stresses the likelihood of time series data variables based on the variable's own data [18]. Previous studies using the ARIMA approach, such as research [11], predicted future unemployment rates in Malaysia using the ARIMA method (2,1,2). Other research, especially [10], indicates that the ARIMA approach (1,2,1) is useful for predicting the unemployment rate in Nigeria.…”
Section: Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (Arima)mentioning
confidence: 99%
See 2 more Smart Citations
“…The Box-Jenkins technique stresses the likelihood of time series data variables based on the variable's own data [18]. Previous studies using the ARIMA approach, such as research [11], predicted future unemployment rates in Malaysia using the ARIMA method (2,1,2). Other research, especially [10], indicates that the ARIMA approach (1,2,1) is useful for predicting the unemployment rate in Nigeria.…”
Section: Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (Arima)mentioning
confidence: 99%
“…For stationary series, the ARIMA model is implemented. The ARIMA model can be represented as ARIMA (p,d,q), where p and q represent the selected AR and MA processes and q represents the differencing process in achieving stationary [11].…”
Section: Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (Arima)mentioning
confidence: 99%
See 1 more Smart Citation
“…Thus long, the education system has been focused solely on producing graduates, independent of the requirements of the workforce, leading to a large number of graduates being rejected by the job market because their skills are outdated (Jalinus & Efendi, 2020). Minister in the Prime Minister's Department (Economy) of Malaysia, Datuk Seri Mustapa Mohamed mentioned the unemployment rate has been trending downward, and in June 2022 it hit a new low of 3.8%, the lowest level since before the Covid-19 pandemic (Ismail et al, 2022). Moreover, according to Lakshmanan (2022), it is a difficult conundrum to solve that one cannot acquire work experience without employment, but it is extremely difficult to find employment when one has no relevant work history.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%