Foreign Policy and the Rational Public in Comparative Perspective

Isernia, Pierangelo; Juhász, Zoltán; Rattinger, Hans

doi:10.1177/0022002702046002002

Cited by 71 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…that to speak of "public opinion" at all may be a misnomer, and therefore to presume that public officials can sensibly respond to or manipulate such a slippery entity is a mistake. However, in Canada, Europe and the United States, there is ample evidence that despite these legitimate methodological and theoretical critiques, when individual opinions are aggregated and tracked over time, collective opinion looks far more stable and reasonable than individual responses to survey questions, and demonstrates consistent correlations with policy and changes in the environment~Bélanger and Petry, 2002;Feld and Groffman, 1988;Isernia et al, 2002;Johnston, 1986;Page and Shapiro, 1992!. Another reason as to why policy might diverge with opinion as measured by polls is that, although elected officials may try to respond to public opinion, they do not think that polls accurately represent the real state of public opinion. They may therefore rely on other indicators or interpretations of public opinion that they find more useful than polls to assess where majority opinion stands on an issue.…”

Section: Theoretical Expectations Regarding the Correlation Between Omentioning

confidence: 99%

Public Opinion and Policy Making in Canada 1994–2001

Pétry

Mendelsohn

2004

Can J Pol Sci

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Abstract. This study examines the consistency between public opinion and public policy during the period 1994–2001 by matching responses to national survey questions on 230 issues with enacted policy proposals on the same issues. Policy outcomes were consistent with majority opinion 49 per cent of the time. This represents a significant drop from 69 per cent during the Mulroney years (1985–1993). Low opinion-policy consistency since 1994 is primarily attributable to divergences between public majorities that are increasingly supportive of a change toward the right and the policies of Jean Chrétien that are more leftist and status quo oriented than those of his predecessor. We argue that these divergences go largely unnoticed by the public because they tend to occur on low-profile issues. On the other hand, the evidence suggests a much tighter correlation between opinion and policy on a small number of high-profile issues of which the public is much more aware, thereby creating the appearance of attentiveness to Canadian public opinion.Résumé. En comparant les décisions sur 230 enjeux de politiques publiques avec les résultats de sondages nationaux sur ces mêmes enjeux, cet article cherche à quantifier le degré d'adéquation entre l'opinion publique et la politique gouvernementale entre 1994 et 2001. Les calculs révèlent que seulement 49 pour cent des décisions du gouvernement de Jean Chrétien sont allées dans le même sens que l'opinion publique, en nette diminution par rapport aux 69 pour cent observés pendant la période Mulroney (1985–1993). La baisse de corrélation depuis 1994 est principalement attribuable à la divergence entre une opinion publique de plus en plus favorable au changement et idéologiquement orientée à droite et la politique du gouvernement de Jean Chrétien sensiblement plus résistante au changement et idéologiquement plus à gauche que celle de son prédécesseur. Le public a tendance à ignorer le manque de corrélation entre l'opinion et les politiques gouvernementales parce que les enjeux en question sont relativement peu importants. Par contre, il semble que la corrélation entre l'opinion et les politiques soit beaucoup plus forte dans un petit nombre d'enjeux importants que le public reconnaît, créant ainsi l'apparence d'un gouvernement attentif aux souhaits de l'opinion publique canadienne.

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Section: Theoretical Expectations Regarding the Correlation Between Omentioning

confidence: 99%

Public Opinion and Policy Making in Canada 1994–2001

Pétry

Mendelsohn

2004

Can J Pol Sci

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“…For example, Eichenberg (1989) reviewed historical evidence on support for NATO and found that it was quite stable and ultimately unaffected by vociferous debates about nuclear weapons in the 1980s (1989,. Several additional scholars reviewed similar evidence through the early 2000s and also found largely stable trends (Isernia, Juhasz, and Rattinger 2002). Reviewing the evidence, Everts (1995, 409) concludes that opinions of specific security policies do not have a large impact on support for the alliance: '' .…”

Section: Results: Support For Increased Defense Spendingmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Acceptability of War and Support for Defense Spending

Eichenberg

Stoll

2016

Journal of Conflict Resolution

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We study the factors that influence citizen support for defense spending in fourteen democracies over the period 2004-2013. We pose two research questions. First, what factors influence citizen support for war and military force? We refer to this as the acceptability of war. Second, in addition to the acceptability of war, what other factors affect support for defense spending? Our principal finding is that citizen acceptance of war and support for defense spending are most influenced by basic beliefs and values. Gender also has a strong negative influence on attitudes toward war and thus indirectly lowers support for defense spending among women. Attitudes toward war and defense spending are also sometimes influenced by short-term threats and by alliance considerations, but the effects are not as substantively meaningful. We conclude with a summary of the results and a discussion of the implications for theory and policy.

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“…When they do exist, such studies were typically conducted in the context of crises and based on US foreign policy (e.g. Wilcox et al 1996;Isernia et al 2002;Goldsmith et al 2005). This study offers a transnational comparison on public opinion and foreign relations in a noncrisis situation.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

EU perceptions in Northeast Asia: a cross-national comparative study of press coverage and citizens’ opinion

Zhang

2010

Asia Eur J

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This study provides a unique and innovative comparative investigation of the press coverage and citizens' opinion towards the European Union (EU) and its bilateral relations with the three most important Northeast Asian countries, People's Republic of China, Japan and South Korea. On the basis of media content analysis of mainstream national newspapers and opinion surveys of the general public and elite stakeholders, the analysis explores the extent to which media agenda and framing, the shared interests between the EU and the respective country, and social and personal connections influence citizens' opinions of the EU and its bilateral relations in these three countries.

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Foreign Policy and the Rational Public in Comparative Perspective

Cited by 71 publications

References 23 publications

Public Opinion and Policy Making in Canada 1994–2001

Public Opinion and Policy Making in Canada 1994–2001

The Acceptability of War and Support for Defense Spending

EU perceptions in Northeast Asia: a cross-national comparative study of press coverage and citizens’ opinion

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