Motivated by precision counting of BPS black holes, we analyze six-derivative couplings in the low energy effective action of three-dimensional string vacua with 16 supercharges. Based on perturbative computations up to two-loop, supersymmetry and duality arguments, we conjecture that the exact coefficient of the ∇ 2 (∇φ) 4 effective interaction is given by a genus-two modular integral of a Siegel theta series for the non-perturbative Narain lattice times a specific meromorphic Siegel modular form. The latter is familiar from the Dijkgraaf-Verlinde-Verlinde (DVV) conjecture on exact degeneracies of 1/4-BPS dyons. We show that this Ansatz reproduces the known perturbative corrections at weak heterotic coupling, including tree-level, one-and two-loop corrections, plus non-perturbative effects of order e −1/g 2 3 . We also examine the weak coupling expansions in type I and type II string duals and find agreement with known perturbative results. In the limit where a circle in the internal torus decompactifies, our Ansatz predicts the exact ∇ 2 F 4 effective interaction in four-dimensional CHL string vacua, along with infinite series of exponentially suppressed corrections of order e −R from Euclideanized BPS black holes winding around the circle, and further suppressed corrections of order e −R 2 from Taub-NUT instantons. We show that instanton corrections from 1/4-BPS black holes are precisely weighted by the BPS index predicted from the DVV formula, including the detailed moduli dependence. We also extract two-instanton corrections from pairs of 1/2-BPS black holes, demonstrating consistency with supersymmetry and wall-crossing, and estimate the size of instanton-anti-instanton contributions.G (24,8) ab,cd = R.N.[P ] is a genus-h Siegel-Narain theta series for a lattice of signature (p, q) with a polynomial insertion (see (B.4) and (2.32) for the genus-one and two cases), ∆ and Φ 10 are the modular discriminants in genus-one and two, and R.N. denotes a specific regularization prescription. We demonstrated that the Ansätze (1.4) and (1.5) satisfy the relevant supersymmetric Ward identities, and that their asymptotic expansion at weak heterotic string coupling g 3 → 0 reproduces the known perturbative contributions, up to one-loop and two-loop, respectively, plus an infinite series of O(e −1/g 2 3 ) corrections ascribed to NS5-instantons, Kaluza-Klein (6,1)-branes and H-monopole instantons. We went on to analyze the limit R → ∞ and demonstrated that the O(e −R ) corrections to F (24,8) abcd and to G (24,8) ab,cd were proportional to the known helicity supertraces of 1/2-and 1/4-BPS four-dimensional black holes, respectively. In particular, the DVV formula for the index of 1/4-BPS states [5], with the correct contour prescription [9], emerges in a transparent fashion after unfolding the integral over the fundamental domain Sp(4, Z)\H 2 onto the full Siegel upper-half plane H 2 .In [22], we extended the study of the 1/2-BPS saturated coupling F (24,8) abcd to the case of CHL heterotic orbifolds of prime order N = 2, 3,...