Fractal-fractional mathematical modeling and forecasting of new cases and deaths of COVID-19 epidemic outbreaks in India

Abdulwasaa, Mansour A.; Abdo, Mohammed S.; Shah, Kamal; Nofal, Taher A.; Panchal, Satish K.; Kawale, Sunil; Abdel‐Aty, Abdel‐Haleem

doi:10.1016/j.rinp.2020.103702

Cited by 57 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…The effect of the awareness programs and different hospitalization schemes to study the transmission dynamics of the virus through an epidemic model is presented in [ 8 ]. A new proposed model is given in [ 9 ] to simulate the new cases and deaths of the virus outbreak in India. The study of the virus impact in Brazil through a multiple-delay mathematical model and the optimal control strategies is illustrated in [ 10 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Numerical simulation and stability analysis of a novel reaction–diffusion COVID-19 model

et al. 2021

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In this study, a novel reaction–diffusion model for the spread of the new coronavirus (COVID-19) is investigated. The model is a spatial extension of the recent COVID-19 SEIR model with nonlinear incidence rates by taking into account the effects of random movements of individuals from different compartments in their environments. The equilibrium points of the new system are found for both diffusive and non-diffusive models, where a detailed stability analysis is conducted for them. Moreover, the stability regions in the space of parameters are attained for each equilibrium point for both cases of the model and the effects of parameters are explored. A numerical verification for the proposed model using a finite difference-based method is illustrated along with their consistency, stability and proving the positivity of the acquired solutions. The obtained results reveal that the random motion of individuals has significant impact on the observed dynamics and steady-state stability of the spread of the virus which helps in presenting some strategies for the better control of it.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Numerical simulation and stability analysis of a novel reaction–diffusion COVID-19 model

et al. 2021

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“…The worldwide issue of the spread of the ailment attracted the consideration of analysts from different fields, which prompted the rise of various propositions to examine and predict the development of the epidemic [23,24]. Our contribution relates to the consideration of the best-known class, which is the classification that presently shows up in clinical diaries [25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36]. This new work incorporates various theoretical and practical analyses on examining the dynamic conduct of the speed of spreading the coronavirus infection (COVID-19) disease and how to lessen the spread of infection in the public arena, and numerical simulations are likewise considered in this work.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Theoretical and numerical analysis for transmission dynamics of COVID-19 mathematical model involving Caputo–Fabrizio derivative

2021

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This manuscript is devoted to a study of the existence and uniqueness of solutions to a mathematical model addressing the transmission dynamics of the coronavirus-19 infectious disease (COVID-19). The mentioned model is considered with a nonsingular kernel type derivative given by Caputo–Fabrizo with fractional order. For the required results of the existence and uniqueness of solution to the proposed model, Picard’s iterative method is applied. Furthermore, to investigate approximate solutions to the proposed model, we utilize the Laplace transform and Adomian’s decomposition (LADM). Some graphical presentations are given for different fractional orders for various compartments of the model under consideration.

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“…Abdo et al [15] developed a classical COVID-19 model to fractional order model using Mittag-Leffler kernel; they investigated the existence, Ulam stability analysis, and simulation results. Many modelings of different real-world problems under different kinds of fractional derivatives can be found in [16][17][18][19][20].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mathematical Modeling and Forecasting of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia under Fractal-Fractional Derivative in Caputo Sense with Power-Law

Jeelani

Alnahdi

Abdo

et al. 2021

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This manuscript is devoted to investigating a fractional-order mathematical model of COVID-19. The corresponding derivative is taken in Caputo sense with power-law of fractional order μ and fractal dimension χ. We give some detailed analysis on the existence and uniqueness of the solution to the proposed problem. Furthermore, some results regarding basic reproduction number and stability are given. For the proposed theoretical analysis, we use fixed point theory while for numerical analysis fractional Adams–Bashforth iterative techniques are utilized. Using our numerical scheme is verified by using some real values of the parameters to plot the approximate solution to the considered model. Graphical presentations corresponding to different values of fractional order and fractal dimensions are given. Moreover, we provide some information regarding the real data of Saudi Arabia from 1 March 2020 till 22 April 2021, then calculated the fatality rates by utilizing the SPSS, Eviews and Expert Modeler procedure. We also built forecasts of infection for the period 23 April 2021 to 30 May 2021, with 95% confidence.

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Fractal-fractional mathematical modeling and forecasting of new cases and deaths of COVID-19 epidemic outbreaks in India

Cited by 57 publications

References 48 publications

Numerical simulation and stability analysis of a novel reaction–diffusion COVID-19 model

Numerical simulation and stability analysis of a novel reaction–diffusion COVID-19 model

Theoretical and numerical analysis for transmission dynamics of COVID-19 mathematical model involving Caputo–Fabrizio derivative

Mathematical Modeling and Forecasting of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia under Fractal-Fractional Derivative in Caputo Sense with Power-Law

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