Frequency analysis of extreme precipitation in different regions of the Huaihe River Basin

Abstract

Affected by climate change and human activities, the frequency and uncertainty of extreme precipitation have shown an increasing trend, which has brought great challenges to the prevention of flood disasters. The Huaihe River Basin (HRB) is located at the junction of northern and southern China and is more susceptible to climate change. In order to obtain the spatio‐temporal distribution characteristics of extreme precipitation in the HRB, in this study, the L‐moments method was used to analyse the regional frequency distribution of the annual precipitation (YP), the maximum one‐day rainfall (RM1day), the maximum five‐day rainfall (RM5day) and the maximum 15‐day rainfall (RM15day) in the HRB. The results show that the HRB can be divided into five sub‐zones on the basis of the division of natural sub‐basins to ensure regional consistency. The accuracy of quantile estimation will decrease as the return periods increase. When the return period is less than 100 years, the relative root mean square error (RMSE) can be guaranteed to be relatively small, and the cumulative RMSE is less than 0.3. However, after the return period is greater than 100 years, the 90% confidence interval of the quantile estimate increases rapidly, indicating that the estimated quantile error increased. The northwestern part of the HRB may experience extreme annual precipitation, which is different from the normal precipitation distribution. The extreme precipitation in Zone 1, Zone 2–2 and Zone 4 is not only strong but also has a large increase speed, making these areas the key focus zones for flood control and anti‐logging. This study can provide important reference for the prediction and prevention of extreme precipitation in the HRB.

Reliability of Ensemble Climatological Forecasts

“…For example, the Bernoulli‐Gaussian distribution is subject to inadequate flexibility when fitting skewed precipitation data. The Bernoulli‐GEV distribution can produce too wide spreads due to overfitting of large samples, indicating that the heavy tail is suitable to extreme values (Jin et al., 2022; Papalexiou et al., 2013; Sun et al., 2022). Nevertheless, the log‐sinh transformation and the Bernoulli‐Gamma distribution yield CRPSS rel mostly falling below 0.20.…”

Effects of local aerosol and transported dust pollution on the surface energy balance over farmland in eastern China during spring

“…The HRB (30 °-36 °N, 112 °-122 °E), a transitional belt between the subtropical and temperate climate regions in eastern China, is an area known to be sensitive to climate change (Jin et al, 2022). It belongs to the warm temperate semi-humid monsoon climate zone, with the mean annual precipitation varying between 600 and 1400 mm, and the average air temperature (T a ) ranging from 11 °C to 16 °C (Xu et al, 2021).…”

Rapid Urbanization Increased the Risk of Agricultural Waterlogging in the Huaibei Plain, China

“…Due to its wide range, severity, and great economic consequences, waterlogging has negative impacts on agricultural production and economic development [7]. In addition, due to climate change and rapid urbanization, the intensity and frequency of precipitation have increased [8] and resulted in frequent waterlogging disasters, which are serious threats to agriculture [9,10]. The control of waterlogged arable land has drawn great attention from governments, researchers, and food producers.…”

“…This area is located in the Huaihe River Basin, which is characterized by low-lying terrain and a diverse network of rivers. Due to climate warming and human activities, the intensity and frequency of precipitation have increased [8]. Affected by the drainage project and the water level of the river, precipitation during heavy rainfall cannot be discharged in a timely manner, resulting in serious waterlogging [20,21].…”

“…Recent research has focused on the changing trends of extreme rainfall [8], hydrological process modeling [23,24], and waterlogging control on cultivated land [19,21]. Applying the results of these studies to the practice of irrigation and drainage engineering is challenging.…”