Frequency Analysis of Extreme Water Levels Affected by Sea-Level Rise in East and Southeast Coasts of China

Chen, Yimei; Huang, Wenrui; Xu, Sudong

doi:10.2112/si68-014.1

Cited by 18 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…The distribution of these peaks con- verges to the GPD theoretical distribution. In addition, the threshold leads to a sample more representative of extreme events (Coles, 2001). However, the threshold selection is subjective, and an optimal threshold is difficult to obtain.…”

Section: The Sampling Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling dependence and coincidence of storm surges and high tide: methodology, discussion and recommendations based on a simplified case study in Le Havre (France)

Daoued¹,

Hamdi²,

Mouhous-Voyneau³

et al. 2020

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Coastal facilities such as nuclear power plants (NPPs) have to be designed to withstand extreme weather conditions and must, in particular, be protected against coastal floods because it is the most important source of coastal lowland inundations. Indeed, considering the combination of tide and extreme storm surges (SSs) is a key issue in the evaluation of the risk associated with coastal flooding hazard. Most existing studies are generally based on the assumption that high tides and extreme SSs are independent. While there are several approaches to analyze and characterize coastal flooding hazard with either extreme SSs or sea levels, only few studies propose and compare several approaches combining the tide density with the SS variable. Thus this study aims to develop a method for modeling dependence and coincidence of SSs and high tide. In this work, we have used existing methods for tide and SS combination and tried to improve the results by proposing a new alternative approach while showing the limitations and advantages of each method. Indeed, in order to estimate extreme sea levels, the classic joint probability method (JPM) is used by making use of a convolution between tide and the skew storm surge (SSS). Another statistical indirect analysis using the maximum instantaneous storm surge (MSS) is proposed in this paper as an alternative to the first method with the SSS variable. A direct frequency analysis using the extreme total sea level is also used as a reference method. The question we are trying to answer in this paper is then the coincidence and dependency essential for a combined tide and SS hazard analysis. The results brought to light a bias in the MSS-based procedure compared to the direct statistics on sea levels, and this bias is more important for high return periods. It was also concluded that an appropriate coincidence probability concept, considering the dependence structure between SSs, is needed for a better assessment of the risk using the MSS. The city of Le Havre in France was used as a case study. Overall, the example has shown that the return level (RL) estimates using the MSS variable are quite different from those obtained with the method using the SSSs, with acceptable uncertainty. Furthermore, the shape parameter is negative from all the methods with a much heavier tail when the SSS and the extreme sea levels (ESLs) are used as variables of interest.

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Section: The Sampling Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling dependence and coincidence of storm surges and high tide: methodology, discussion and recommendations based on a simplified case study in Le Havre (France)

Daoued¹,

Hamdi²,

Mouhous-Voyneau³

et al. 2020

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…As a matter of fact, high water levels are the only type of data that is directly measured and they typically have high precision and accuracy [10][11][12]. Such an approach is relatively common in modelling coastal floods caused by storm surge events [31][32][33]. A similar approach has been developed to estimate extreme ground water levels by Fürst et al [34].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Design Flood Estimation: Exploring the Potentials and Limitations of Two Alternative Approaches

Okoli

Breinl

Mazzoleni

et al. 2019

Water

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The design of flood defence structures requires the estimation of flood water levels corresponding to a given probability of exceedance, or return period. In river flood management, this estimation is often done by statistically analysing the frequency of flood discharge peaks. This typically requires three main steps. First, direct measurements of annual maximum water levels at a river cross-section are converted into annual maximum flows by using a rating curve. Second, a probability distribution function is fitted to these annual maximum flows to derive the design peak flow corresponding to a given return period. Third, the design peak flow is used as input to a hydraulic model to derive the corresponding design flood level. Each of these three steps is associated with significant uncertainty that affects the accuracy of estimated design flood levels. Here, we propose a simulation framework to compare this common approach (based on the frequency analysis of annual maximum flows) with an alternative approach based on the frequency analysis of annual maximum water levels. The rationale behind this study is that high water levels are directly measured, and they often come along with less uncertainty than river flows. While this alternative approach is common for storm surge and coastal flooding, the potential of this approach in the context of river flooding has not been sufficiently explored. Our framework is based on the generation of synthetic data to perform a numerical experiment and compare the accuracy and precision of estimated design flood levels based on either annual maximum river flows (common approach) or annual maximum water levels (alternative approach).

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“…Some restored the stationary time series by removing the increment caused by SLR [9][10][11], while some tried to generate stationary samples by duplicating the characteristics of historical tidal processes, which were assumed to be stationary [12]. Other researchers assumed that the rate of high tidal levels was time-dependent, and conducted frequency analysis on the recorded series with a time-correlated variable [8][9][10][11][12][13]. [12].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…[12]. Other researchers assumed that the rate of high tidal levels was time-dependent, and conducted frequency analysis on the recorded series with a time-correlated variable [8][9][10][11][12][13].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Flooding in Delta Areas under Changing Climate: Response of Design Flood Level to Non-Stationarity in Both Inflow Floods and High Tides in South China

Tang

Guo

et al. 2017

Water

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Abstract:Climate change has led to non-stationarity in recorded floods all over the world. Although previous studies have widely discussed the design error caused by non-stationarity, most of them explored basins with closed catchment areas. The response of flood level to nonstationary inflow floods and high tidal levels in deltas with a dense river network has hardly been mentioned. Delta areas are extremely vulnerable to floods. To establish reliable standards for flood protection in delta areas, it is crucial to investigate the response of flood level to nonstationary inflow floods and high tidal levels. Pearl River Delta (PRD), the largest delta in South China, was selected as the study area. A theoretical framework was developed to quantify the response of flood level to nonstationary inflow floods and the tidal level. When the non-stationarity was ignored, error up to 18% was found in 100-year design inflow floods and up to 14% in 100-year design tidal level. Meanwhile, flood level in areas that were ≤22 km away from the outlets mainly responded to the nonstationary tidal level, and that ≥45 km to the nonstationary inflow floods. This study will support research on the non-stationarity of floods in delta areas.

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Frequency Analysis of Extreme Water Levels Affected by Sea-Level Rise in East and Southeast Coasts of China

Cited by 18 publications

References 26 publications

Modeling dependence and coincidence of storm surges and high tide: methodology, discussion and recommendations based on a simplified case study in Le Havre (France)

Modeling dependence and coincidence of storm surges and high tide: methodology, discussion and recommendations based on a simplified case study in Le Havre (France)

Design Flood Estimation: Exploring the Potentials and Limitations of Two Alternative Approaches

Flooding in Delta Areas under Changing Climate: Response of Design Flood Level to Non-Stationarity in Both Inflow Floods and High Tides in South China

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