Frequency of typhoon landfall over Guangdong Province of China during the period 1470–1931

Chan, Johnny C. L.; Shi, Jiu-En

doi:10.1002/(sici)1097-0088(200002)20:2<183::aid-joc479>3.3.co;2-l

Cited by 16 publications

(22 citation statements)

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“…Previous studies of Chinese typhoon activities based on historical documentary data (Lee and Hsu 1989;Chan and Shi 2000) rarely address methodological issues explicitly. By quantitatively and qualitatively comparing the records over a twenty-six-year period in which the historical and the instrumental datasets overlap, we have provided an unusual example that shows the importance of data validation and calibration for paleotempestology based on historical documentary evidence.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Lee and Hsu's inventory table lists 571 records of typhoon strikes from AD 975 to 1909 during a period of 935 years. By contrast, Chan and Shi's (2000) recent study used only local gazettes from twenty-two cities or counties in the vicinity of Guangzhou in the central part of Guangdong Province-a small subset of our dataset. Although they did not explicitly state the number of landfall events included in their dataset, the inventory compiled by Qiao and Tang (1993)-their data source-lists only 203.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Recently, Chan and Shi (2000) published a study that examines the frequency of typhoon landfalls in the Guangdong Province during the period 1470-1931 based on local government records compiled by Qiao and Tang (1993). Even though their study and ours focus on the same province, we use a different data source (Lee and Hsu 1989) and a much larger and more complete dataset.…”

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confidence: 99%

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A 1,000-Year History of Typhoon Landfalls in Guangdong, Southern China, Reconstructed from Chinese Historical Documentary Records

Liu

Shen

Louie

2001

Annals of the Association of American Geographers

164

130

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In China, the abundance of historical documentary records in the form of Fang Zhi (semiofficial local gazettes) offers an extraordinary opportunity for providing a high-resolution historical dataset for the frequency of typhoon strikes. We have reconstructed a 1,000-year time series of typhoon landfalls in the Guangdong Province of southern China since AD 975 based on data compiled from Fang Zhi. Even though the 571 typhoon strikes recorded in the historical documents probably underrepresent the total number of typhoon landfalls in Guangdong, calibration of the historical data against the observations during the instrumental period 1884-1909 suggests that the trends of the two datasets are significantly correlated ( r ϭ 0.71), confirming that the time series reconstructed from historical documentary evidence contains a reliable record of variability in typhoon landfalls. On a decadal timescale, the twentyyear interval from AD 1660 to 1680 is the most active period on record, with twenty-eight to thirty-seven typhoon landfalls per decade. The variability in typhoon landfalls in Guangdong mimics that observed in other paleoclimatic proxies (e.g., tree rings, ice cores) from China and the northern hemisphere. Remarkably, the two periods of most frequent typhoon strikes in Guangdong (AD 1660 -1680, 1850-1880) coincide with two of the coldest and driest periods in northern and central China during the Little Ice Age. Conceivably, the predominant storm tracks shifted to the south during these cold periods, resulting in fewer landfalls in Japan and the east-central Chinese coast but more typhoons hitting Guangdong. Spectral analysis of the Guangdong time series reveals an approximately fiftyyear cycle in typhoon landfall frequency. While the physical mechanism remains to be identified, it is tempting to relate this periodicity to the pentadecadal variability identified in the North Pacific Index (NPI) time series.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

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A 1,000-Year History of Typhoon Landfalls in Guangdong, Southern China, Reconstructed from Chinese Historical Documentary Records

Liu

Shen

Louie

2001

Annals of the Association of American Geographers

164

130

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“…These data have partly been compiled as an important chapter in various books of natural disaster or meteorological record collections [36,[68][69][70][71][72][73] . A 1000-year time series of typhoon landfalls for Guangdong Province has been produced from fang zhi sources [74,75] Statistical analyses on the historical typhoon data from Guangdong reveal distinct multi-decadal (~50 years) and higher-frequency variations in typhoon landfall that may be linked to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and ENSO [74,75] . It is also inferred that there exists an obvious linear relationship between the frequency of typhoon landfall in Guangdong and ENSO phases, i.e., more frequent typhoon landfalls in La Niña years than in El Niño years.…”

Section: Paleotempestological Studies Using Historical Documentary Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Perspectives on the linkage between typhoon activity and global warming from recent research advances in paleotempestology

Fan

Liu

2008

Sci. Bull.

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“…Methods involving the analysis of reports of storm damage within documents offer the best approach to estimating TC occurrence, intensity, and track over land (Boose, 2004). Information from historical sources has been used, for example, to construct chronologies of hurricane activity in the Caribbean (Millas, 1968;Caviedes, 1991;Boose et al, 2004;García-Herrera et al, 2007;Mock, 2008;Chenoweth and Divine, 2012), Atlantic (Mock, 2004;García Herrera et al, 2005;Chenoweth, 2006;Glenn and Mayes, 2009) and eastern Pacific (Chenoweth and Landsea, 2004;Raga et al, 2013), and typhoons in the western Pacific (Chan and Shi, 2000;Ribera et al, 2008;Liu et al, 2012); see Nash and Adamson (2014). However, despite a relative wealth of available historical material, no attempt has yet been made to explore TC damage reports for Madagascar.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tropical cyclone activity over Madagascar during the late nineteenth century

Nash

Pribyl

Klein³

et al. 2014

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Tropical cyclones (TCs) represent the most significant natural hazard for the economy and population of Madagascar. Planning for the impacts of future cyclone strikes requires a detailed understanding of the frequency of destructive storms in the past. In this paper, we utilise historical documentary materials to construct an initial framework of TCs making landfall on Madagascar during the latter half of the 19th century. The study focuses on 1862–1900 as this is the period of most extensive documentary records. Accounts of storm damage contained within historical sources are used to reconstruct TC tracks over land, with details of wind damage converted into Fujita (F) Scale classes to classify TC intensity. A total of 20 TCs are identified, of which only 17 are included within the IBTrACS dataset for the southwest Indian Ocean. The TCs of 13–14 March 1872 and 28 January–1 February 1893 were the most destructive of the late 19th century, with F3+ levels of wind damage identified from historical accounts. We compare our results with data for TCs within the IBTrACS dataset that made landfall on Madagascar during the period 1970–2012. This comparison suggests that (1) fewer TCs made landfall during the 19th century compared with the post-satellite era, but that of these (2) a greater proportion appear to have crossed the northeast of the island. There is no significant correlation between numbers of landfalling TCs and either mean annual SOI or DMI. We conclude with a consideration of additional archival collections that may be used in future investigations to enhance our chronology

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Frequency of typhoon landfall over Guangdong Province of China during the period 1470–1931

Cited by 16 publications

References 0 publications

A 1,000-Year History of Typhoon Landfalls in Guangdong, Southern China, Reconstructed from Chinese Historical Documentary Records

A 1,000-Year History of Typhoon Landfalls in Guangdong, Southern China, Reconstructed from Chinese Historical Documentary Records

Perspectives on the linkage between typhoon activity and global warming from recent research advances in paleotempestology

Tropical cyclone activity over Madagascar during the late nineteenth century

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