From Childhood System Contact to Adult Criminal Conviction: Investigating Intersectional Inequalities using Queensland Administrative Data

Abstract

It is well known that youth justice contact is associated with criminal conviction in adulthood. What is less well understood is whether ‘cross-over’ children, who have contact with both child welfare and youth justice systems, experience relatively worse outcomes and, if so, whether these outcomes vary by important demographic factors, such as sex and race. Criminal careers scholars have examined patterns of adult convictions for different groups, but attempts to understand intersectional variation in these outcomes have been constrained by limitations of standard statistical analysis. Using administrative data from the Queensland Cross-sector Research Collaboration, we adopt a flexible regression model specification to explore the cumulative effects of both child welfare and youth justice contact on adult conviction trajectories, and how these associations vary by sex and Indigenous status. We find clear evidence across all demographic groups that contact with both justice and welfare systems in childhood is associated with increased likelihood and severity of conviction trajectories in adulthood. The cumulative effect of cross-over status results in greater equity of negative outcomes across groups, although the conviction profile is worst for Indigenous men. Evidence of an additional inequality is present only for non-Indigenous women, who have the lowest likelihood of conviction overall. We conclude that while cross-over children are at elevated risk of conviction in adulthood, the nature and seriousness of their conviction pathways is conditional on pre-existing intersectional inequalities. The model specification used is a promising method by which to explore the existence of such inequalities.

Offending Trajectories in an Australian Birth Cohort: Differences and Similarities Across Sex

“…Although a few previous studies have identified five offending trajectory groups for males and females combined (Broidy et al, 2015; Matthews et al, 2022), our study took a novel approach and identified five separate trajectory groups for females and males, which allowed us to gain a more comprehensive understanding of sex-based similarities and differences in offending patterns through early adulthood. The large female sample and wide age range (10 to 30 years of age), derived from the population-based, prospective, longitudinal, linked administrative data set, made it possible to achieve a more comprehensive analysis of how sex and Indigenous status intersect to shape offending trajectories.…”

“…In addition to exploring how sex is related to offending trajectories, some have also considered the important role of race/ethnicity and how sex and race/ethnicity intersect to shape offending trajectories (e.g., Broidy et al, 2015; Doherty & Ensminger, 2014; Matthews et al, 2022; Piquero & Buka, 2002). For example, Piquero and Buka (2002) found that African American females and males were more likely than their non-African American counterparts to populate the chronic/persistent offending trajectory.…”

“…In Australia, these intersectional patterns reflect historical and ongoing systemic inequalities that befall to Indigenous Australians. While Indigenous males tend to have the highest frequency of offending, some Australian studies have found that, like Indigenous males, Indigenous females are more likely than even non-Indigenous males to populate chronic/persistent trajectory groups (Broidy et al, 2015; Matthews et al, 2022). This suggests that Indigenous Australians, particularly, Indigenous females, may face unique challenges and vulnerabilities that contribute to their involvement in chronic/persistent offending patterns uncommon among non-Indigenous females.…”

Examining the role of police-led diversion in the youth crime decline in Australia: a macro-level longitudinal analysis

“…While young people displaying high frequency or 'chronic' offending behaviour have not traditionally been a target for diversion, they comprise a heterogenous group in terms of the nature of their offending, and expanding appropriate diversionary options for lower harm offences could reduce the long-term entrenchment of these young people in the criminal justice system (McCarthy et al, 2021). Young people engaged in chronic offending have often experienced many adverse and challenging life experiences including child maltreatment, cognitive and learning disabilities, family dysfunction or estrangement, substance use, racial discrimination, and educational exclusion (Evans et al, 2016;Fox et al, 2015;Matthews et al, 2022;McVilly, 2022;Whitten et al, 2019), and thus often have multiple persistent factors contributing to their offending behaviour. There is evidence that diversion programs targeted to high-risk young people can be effective in reducing recidivism, particularly when it includes a skills-building component and is targeted to identified needs (Wilson & Hoge, 2013).…”

New directions in intergenerational child maltreatment research and responses: Knowledge gaps and recommendations

“…There is extensive scholarship on child maltreatment more broadly in Australia. Research has explored many deleterious outcomes of child maltreatment victimisation, such as mental health concerns and criminal offending (Green et al, 2020; Malvaso et al, 2019; Matthews et al, 2022). Other studies have examined factors associated with contact with CPS as a parent, including economic disadvantage, criminal offending, domestic and family violence (DFV) and mental health concerns (Doidge et al, 2017; Gilbert et al, 2020; Whitten et al, 2021).…”