An increase in the use of postal services to deliver drugs purchased online raises concerns about widening access to drugs markets, especially in remote and rural areas that were previously protected by geographical boundaries. Yet little is known about the geographical patterning of drugs delivered through the post. Using a novel law enforcement dataset containing details of illegal drug packages intercepted by UK Border Force en route to Scotland, we examine the geographical destination of drugs purchased online and explore the area-based characteristics associated with higher rates of delivery. This article provides previously unavailable insights into the spatial patterning of digital drugs markets at sub-national level. We use descriptive statistics, Bayesian hierarchical regression models, and spatial autocorrelation to describe the relationship between area-based characteristics and expected rate of illegal drug consignments identified across Scotland. The majority of intercepted drug packages were destined for urban centres, but there was a higher than expected delivery rate to some of Scotland’s remote and rural locations. Increased rates of drug delivery within Scottish neighbourhoods was independently associated with higher levels of crime and deprivation, with Internet connectivity and with access to services, but not with higher rates of drug-related hospitalization. Analysis of spatial clustering showed that drug delivery to the most remote and rural locations was still associated with good access to services because the packages were typically delivered to addresses in larger settlements within remote locations. Overall, postal drugs delivery reflects both relatively high use in more urban, more deprived areas but also seems to open up more remote regions to drug markets, albeit with usage concentrated in larger settlements within otherwise remote areas.
It is well known that youth justice contact is associated with criminal conviction in adulthood. What is less well understood is whether ‘cross-over’ children, who have contact with both child welfare and youth justice systems, experience relatively worse outcomes and, if so, whether these outcomes vary by important demographic factors, such as sex and race. Criminal careers scholars have examined patterns of adult convictions for different groups, but attempts to understand intersectional variation in these outcomes have been constrained by limitations of standard statistical analysis. Using administrative data from the Queensland Cross-sector Research Collaboration, we adopt a flexible regression model specification to explore the cumulative effects of both child welfare and youth justice contact on adult conviction trajectories, and how these associations vary by sex and Indigenous status. We find clear evidence across all demographic groups that contact with both justice and welfare systems in childhood is associated with increased likelihood and severity of conviction trajectories in adulthood. The cumulative effect of cross-over status results in greater equity of negative outcomes across groups, although the conviction profile is worst for Indigenous men. Evidence of an additional inequality is present only for non-Indigenous women, who have the lowest likelihood of conviction overall. We conclude that while cross-over children are at elevated risk of conviction in adulthood, the nature and seriousness of their conviction pathways is conditional on pre-existing intersectional inequalities. The model specification used is a promising method by which to explore the existence of such inequalities.
An increase in the use of postal services to deliver drugs purchased online raises concerns about widening access to drugs markets, especially in remote and rural areas that were previously protected by geographical boundaries. Yet, little is known about the geographical patterning of drugs delivered through the post. Using a novel law enforcement dataset containing details of illegal drug packages intercepted by UK Border Force en-route to Scotland, we examine the geographical destination of drugs purchased online and explore the area-based characteristics associated with higher rates of delivery. This paper provides previously unavailable insights into the spatial patterning of digital drugs markets at sub-national level.We use descriptive statistics, Bayesian hierarchical regression models, and spatial autocorrelation to describe the relationship between area-based characteristics and expected rate of illegal drug consignments identified across Scotland.The majority of intercepted drug packages were destined for urban centres, but there was a higher than expected delivery rate to some of Scotland's remote and rural locations. Increased rates of drug delivery within Scottish neighbourhoods was associated with higher levels of crime and deprivation, internet connectivity and with access to services, but not with higher rates of drug-related hospitalisation. Analysis of spatial clustering showed that drug delivery to the most remote and rural locations was still associated with good access to services because the packages were typically delivered to addresses in larger settlements within remote locations.Overall postal drugs delivery reflects both relatively high use in more urban, more deprived areas but also seems to open up more remote regions to drug markets, albeit with usage concentrated in larger settlements within otherwise remote areas.
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