Frost fairs, sunspots and the Little Ice Age

Lockwood, Mike; Owens, Mat; Hawkins, Ed; Jones, Gareth S.; Usoskin, Ilya

doi:10.1093/astrogeo/atx057

Cited by 22 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…With the aforementioned generalized formulation to represent solar irradiance changes, one can estimate the change in irradiance between present-day magnetic activity levels and those during the last grand solar minimum, the Maunder minimum in the second half of the seventeenth century when sunspots were rare or completely absent [26,27]. Decreased TSI during the solar Maunder minimum is often invoked as the cause of an interval when the frequency of cold winters in Europe increased and palaeoclimate indicators show reduced average Northern Hemisphere temperatures, referred to as the ‘little ice age’ (a name that implies a much greater climate perturbation than it actually was; see [28]). However, close inspection shows that common features between the solar and terrestrial climate time series are small and not statistically significant [3].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Placing limits on long-term variations in quiet-Sun irradiance and their contribution to total solar irradiance and solar radiative forcing of climate

Lockwood

Ball

2020

Proc. R. Soc. A.

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Recent reconstructions of total solar irradiance (TSI) postulate that quiet-Sun variations could give significant changes to the solar power input to Earth's climate (radiative climate forcings of 0.7–1.1 W m −2 over 1700–2019) arising from changes in quiet-Sun magnetic fields that have not, as yet, been observed. Reconstructions without such changes yield solar forcings that are smaller by a factor of more than 10. We study the quiet-Sun TSI since 1995 for three reasons: (i) this interval shows rapid decay in average solar activity following the grand solar maximum in 1985 (such that activity in 2019 was broadly equivalent to that in 1900); (ii) there is improved consensus between TSI observations; and (iii) it contains the first modelling of TSI that is independent of the observations. Our analysis shows that the most likely upward drift in quiet-Sun radiative forcing since 1700 is between +0.07 and −0.13 W m −2 . Hence, we cannot yet discriminate between the quiet-Sun TSI being enhanced or reduced during the Maunder and Dalton sunspot minima, although there is a growing consensus from the combinations of models and observations that it was slightly enhanced. We present reconstructions that add quiet-Sun TSI and its uncertainty to models that reconstruct the effects of sunspots and faculae.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Placing limits on long-term variations in quiet-Sun irradiance and their contribution to total solar irradiance and solar radiative forcing of climate

Lockwood

Ball

2020

Proc. R. Soc. A.

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“…Southernmost glaciers in Europe, which are a legacy of the central part of the LIA, survive in a warm environment thanks to local topographic and controlling factors, and high levels of accumulation as a result of favourable seasons for snow, but since their maximum during the 19th century they have retreated nowadays, losing 30–100% of their volume (Grunewald and Scheithauer, 2010). For instance, Andrews (1887) noted for the very cold winter of 1881 that it was expected by many that a Frost Fair would once more be held on the Thames (Lockwood et al ., 2017). Winters were still severe (and cool summers occurred), compared with the thermal values of the second half of the 20th century (e.g., Brönnimann, 2006; Twardosz and Kossowska‐Cezak, 2020).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

New insights into the world's longest series of monthly snowfall (Parma, Northern Italy, 1777–2018)

Diodato¹,

Bertolin

Bellocchi

et al. 2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The emergence of decreasing trends in snowfall frequency and snow depth highlights the challenges arising from shifts in snow regimes. In particular, snow-dependent southern Europe regions may be negatively impacted by such changes. Snow regimes strongly influence the water availability in reservoirs and groundwater. This study presents the world's longest series of monthly snowfall (fresh snow depth, snow days per year, days with snow on the ground) for the Parma Observatory, northern Italy (44 48 0 N and 10 19 0 E) between 1777 and 2018. These datasets were collected over the centuries using early rain gauges and recently, SIAP tipping bucket models. Sources of inhomogeneity were identified and analysed through the study of metadata and of nonparametric tests on datasets. Homogenized time series were obtained after correcting the observed snowfall data for the instruments response and localization characteristics, for the observing practices with the help of the standard normal homogeneity tests. The Buishand and the Mann-Kendall tests were further applied to check the correction and detect possible monotonic trends. Over the study period, days per year of snow decreased after the change point detected in 1897, in association with a rise in surface air temperature (including a distinct urban warming trend). In this study high numbers of snowy days per year (hereafter referred as snowfall frequency) and snow depth values during the latest phase of the LIA at Parma are consistent with a cycle of minimum solar activity, suggesting that enhanced, solar-induced blocking activity dominated, with the arrival into the Mediterranean of large cold air masses developing over Siberia and northern Europe. Over the last century, snow appears to have resonance-like characteristics as similar trends were observed over the Northern Hemisphere, where the extent of the snow cover has been reported to markedly decline in the transition spring and autumn seasons.

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“…In addition, the freezing of the Thames at London is dependent on a number of non-climate factors, such as flow speed, tides and brackishness: it is not climate effects but the removal of the old London Bridge, which had many narrow arches and elements that essentially acted as a weir, and the improved river flow from the embankment work which have primarily led to a reduction in occurrence of the Thames freezing at London since the early 19th century. A more complete discussion of Frost Fairs and Thames freezing events is provided by Lockwood et al (2017). The second issue is that even if such data could be used as an indicator of climate, Thames freezing events at London were not enhanced in MM.…”

Section: Temporal Correlationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The second issue is that even if such data could be used as an indicator of climate, Thames freezing events at London were not enhanced in MM. The bottom panel of Figure 2 shows the annual occurrence rate of all known historical reports of Frost Fairs or instances of the Thames freezing in London in an 11 year running window (see Lockwood et al, 2017). The freezing occurrence rates in the periods of high solar activities before and after the MM are as high as during the MM and the peak occurrence is roughly 70 years after the end of the MM.…”

Section: Temporal Correlationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Maunder minimum and the Little Ice Age: an update from recent reconstructions and climate simulations

Owens

Lockwood

Hawkins

et al. 2017

J. Space Weather Space Clim.

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-The Maunder minimum (MM) was a period of extremely low solar activity from approximately AD 1650 to 1715. In the solar physics literature, the MM is sometimes associated with a period of cooler global temperatures, referred to as the Little Ice Age (LIA), and thus taken as compelling evidence of a large, direct solar influence on climate. In this study, we bring together existing simulation and observational studies, particularly the most recent solar activity and paleoclimate reconstructions, to examine this relation. Using northern hemisphere surface air temperature reconstructions, the LIA can be most readily defined as an approximately 480 year period spanning AD 1440-1920, although not all of this period was notably cold. While the MM occurred within the much longer LIA period, the timing of the features are not suggestive of causation and should not, in isolation, be used as evidence of significant solar forcing of climate. Climate model simulations suggest multiple factors, particularly volcanic activity, were crucial for causing the cooler temperatures in the northern hemisphere during the LIA. A reduction in total solar irradiance likely contributed to the LIA at a level comparable to changing land use.

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Frost fairs, sunspots and the Little Ice Age

Cited by 22 publications

References 18 publications

Placing limits on long-term variations in quiet-Sun irradiance and their contribution to total solar irradiance and solar radiative forcing of climate

Placing limits on long-term variations in quiet-Sun irradiance and their contribution to total solar irradiance and solar radiative forcing of climate

New insights into the world's longest series of monthly snowfall (Parma, Northern Italy, 1777–2018)

The Maunder minimum and the Little Ice Age: an update from recent reconstructions and climate simulations

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