Fuel demand and car ownership modelling in India

Abstract

Motorisation in Asia is soaring with rapid growth in incomes non-lin-early. Even though car ownership per 1,000 population is still low in countries like China, India or Indonesia, escalating number of cars is affected by GDP growth among other infrastructural factors in a non-linear manner. This quick growth in car ownership may represent a significant implication on road transport fuel demand. This paper forecasts the demand for road transport fuel in India. For this purpose, econometric models, based on time series data, are constructed as for a major factor affecting fuel demand in road transportation i.e. car ownership. Copyright 2007 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Complex method of petroleum products demand forecasting considering economic, demographic and technological factors

“…The main issue with using this method is that it requires extremely detailed input information, and also the difficulty of reconciling calculations of transport sector demand with the PP demand in the other sectors. This method was analyzed by Bouachera and Mazraati (2007). Typically, these models are used in the analysis of a limited number of countries for which this information is available.…”

Projections of highway vehicle population, energy demand, and CO2 emissions in India to 2040

“…Bouachera and Mazraati (2007) have modelled rates of car ownership in India by using logistic, quasi‐logistic, and Gompertz functions and calculated fuel demand through 2030. This study assumed a high car‐ownership saturation level of 850 vehicles per 1,000 persons, which, in combination with high vehicle usage (15,000 km annually) and high energy intensity (13 L of gasoline per 100 km), projected very high energy demand.…”

“…The rapid economic and motor vehicle growth in India in the past two decades and forecasts of a continued high level of economic growth has led to several studies that project future vehicle ownership, oil demand, and CO 2 emissions (Fulton and Eads, 2004; ADB, 2006; Singh, 2006; Bouachera and Mazraati, 2007; Banerjee et al ., 2009).…”

Modelling energy demand of developing countries: Are the specific features adequately captured?

“…Miklius et al (1986) provides an early example of this approach for analysis petroleum demand in several Asian countries. Bouachera and Mazraati (2007) have forecast transport fuel requirement for India using the econometric approach. They determine the aggregated fuel demand from car stock in a given year and the average fuel requirement per car per year.…”