Future as fantasy: forgetting the flaws

Kapoor, Rakesh

doi:10.1016/s0016-3287(00)00061-6

Cited by 17 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 2 publications

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“…Interestingly, previous works on the evaluation and assessment of futures and foresight practices and processes (van der Duin & van der Martin, 2012; Gardner & Bishop, 2019), on the theoretical development within the field (Mermet et al., 2008; Yeoman & Curry, 2019) and on the reasons why the field is not established or has not had the desired impact on practice (Bell, 2002; Cramer, 2020; Kapoor, 2001; Marien, 2002) have left the conscious or subconscious resistance to scientific theory within the field largely unspoken. This suggests that this problem is an endemic unknown unknown.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The resistance to scientific theory in futures and foresight, and what to do about it

Fergnani

Chermack²

2020

Futures & Foresight Science

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We offer an argumentative explanation of the reasons why the field of futures and foresight has not been successful at becoming part of the social scientific establishment. We contend that the very set of norms, beliefs, and epistemological foundations of futures and foresight are essentially self‐sabotaging as they resist the creation of scientific theory on futures and foresight practices and processes in organizations. Drawing from the tradition of management and organization sciences, we describe what scientific theory in the context of organizations is and is not, and how theory development contributes to the incremental progress of scientific fields. We then unpack the crux of the problem, deconstructing the resistance to scientific theory within our field into nine, closely related reasons. We offer solutions to the problem in the form of three sets of recommendations: for authors, journal editors, and practitioners. We conclude by responding to likely misunderstandings in advance.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The resistance to scientific theory in futures and foresight, and what to do about it

Fergnani

Chermack²

2020

Futures & Foresight Science

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“…The SOPIFF project identified multiple critiques of the influence achieved by futures work (e.g. Cameron et al, 2006;Glenn et al, 2001;Hayward, 2003;Kapoor, 2001;Miles and Keenan, 2003;Rejeski and Olson, 2006;Slaughter, 2007;Stevenson, 2001;van der Duin et al, 2006). I have focused here on some of the more recent, powerful and illuminating critiques.…”

Section: Criticism Of the Influence Of Futures Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Much futures work is shallow and of poor quality Much futures work is shallow, linear, dominated by pop futurism and techno-futures and concerned with the perpetuation of Western worldviews (Kapoor, 2001;Slaughter, 2007;Stevenson, 2001). It deals primarily with exterior trends and ignores interiors.…”

Section: Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Here, futurists come into conflict with vested interests in the political sphere. Kapoor's (2001) argument that futurists need to become politically engaged is nowhere more relevant than in the realm of sustainability policy.…”

Section: Futures Work and Sustainabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…First, involving more participants provides access to more discourses and worldviews and leads to a more comprehensive map of possible and desirable futures. Kapoor (2001) argues for a focus on alternative futures and this means bringing in non-Western perspectives and other perspectives from the margins. Including voices from the margins helps futurists to identify weak signals that may develop into important future drivers (van der Duin et al, 2006).…”

Section: The Role Of Participationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The influence of futures work on public policy and sustainability

Riedy

2009

Foresight

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Purpose This paper draws on a global scan of futures literature undertaken for the State of Play in the Futures Field (SOPIFF) project to investigate the contribution of futures work to averting looming sustainability challenges and suggest new strategies for influencing policy and practice. Design/methodology/approach The SOPIFF project used an Integral meta-scanning framework to review publicly available futures material, providing a rich source of material to use in assessing the influence achieved by futures work. The framework categorises futures work according to organisational type, social interests, methods, domains and geographic location. Findings On the whole, the influence achieved by futures work is disappointing given that many futurists are strongly committed to bringing about more desirable futures. Some qualified success stories include science and technology foresight, getting sustainability challenges onto the social agenda and small-scale, distributed initiatives. Research limitations/implications Limitations of the scanning process include heavy reliance on publicly available material, prioritisation of breadth over depth of analysis and the physical and cultural location of the researchers. Future iterations of the research should go beyond public material, undertake deeper analysis of scanning hits and draw in more non-Western and non-English work. Practical implications The paper proposes four strategies for increasing the influence of futures work: methodological renewal, political engagement, individual capacity building and participatory approaches. Originality/value The paper uses the recently developed Integral meta-scanning framework to provide a novel view of the futures field. The findings will be of value to foresight practitioners that are seeking to influence public policy and sustainability.

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Youth futures: comparative research and transformative visions

Hicks

2004

Futures

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Future as fantasy: forgetting the flaws

Cited by 17 publications

References 2 publications

The resistance to scientific theory in futures and foresight, and what to do about it

The resistance to scientific theory in futures and foresight, and what to do about it

The influence of futures work on public policy and sustainability

Youth futures: comparative research and transformative visions

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