Future changes in Asian summer monsoon precipitation extremes as inferred from 20-km AGCM simulations

Lui, Yuk Sing; Tam, Chi‐Yung; Lau, Ngar‐Cheung

doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4206-3

Cited by 24 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 61 publications

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“…The number of TCs approaching Japan is projected to reduce, whereas the TC precipitation rate increases under the future climate. This is consistent with the projection by AGCM20 (Lui et al 2018) and the projections using dynamical downscaling (Knutson et al 2015;Huang et al 2016;Nishizawa et al 2018). The frequency of moderate TC precipitation, which sometimes occurs under the present climate, does not change significantly because of the cancelation of these two contrary effects.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 89%

“…Using the projection by AGCM20 that is used for the boundary condition of NHRCM05, Kitoh and Endo (2016) showed that the annual maximum daily precipitation associated with TCs will decrease in the future owing to a reduction in TC number. Lui et al (2018), in which the same AGCM20, except with different SST and different emission scenario, was used, projected reductions of total TC precipitation and the frequency of the daily TC precipitation less than 200 mm, while significant reduction was not found in the frequency of the daily TC precipitation larger than 200 mm. This is consistent with our result that the contribution of the intensification of the TC precipitation rate is larger for the frequency of more intense precipitation.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The change in the total precipitation caused by TCs depends on the balance between the change in the number of TCs and the precipitation rate. Lui et al (2018) showed that the combined effect of these two competing factors leads to a reduction of total precipitation caused by TCs in southern Japan, where the reduction of the number of TCs surpasses the intensification of rainfall rate.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Future Projection of Tropical Cyclone Precipitation over Japan with a High-Resolution Regional Climate Model

Watanabe

Murata²,

Sasaki³

et al. 2019

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

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This study evaluates possible changes in tropical cyclone (TC) precipitation over Japan under a future warmer climate using an ensemble projection generated by a non-hydrostatic regional climate model with a resolution of 5 km (NHRCM05) under the RCP8.5 scenario. NHRCM05 reproduces TC precipitation and TC intensity more accurately than does a general circulation model with a resolution of 20 km. The number of TCs approaching Japan is projected to decrease under the future climate, while the TC precipitation rate increases. As these two effects cancel each other out, total TC precipitation, and the frequency of the moderate TC precipitation that is usual under the present climate, shows no significant change. On the other hand, the frequency of extreme TC precipitation increases significantly because the intensification of the TC precipitation rate outweighs the reduction in TC frequency. The increase in the TC precipitation rate is caused primarily by the increase in water vapor around the TCs, which in turn results from the increase in environmental water vapor. The intensification and structural changes to TCs also contribute to the enhanced TC precipitation.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 89%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Future Projection of Tropical Cyclone Precipitation over Japan with a High-Resolution Regional Climate Model

Watanabe

Murata²,

Sasaki³

et al. 2019

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

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“…2a). Unlike the continuously increasing precipitation trend globally 23,24 , precipitation in the Tienshans showed a slightly downward trend from 1998.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 66%

Declining snowfall fraction in the alpine regions, Central Asia

Chen

et al. 2020

Sci Rep

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in a warming climate, precipitation (p) is less likely to occur as snowfall (S). change in the snowfall fraction (S/P) is currently assumed not only influences the accumulation and ablation of glaciers, but also influences the streamflow and water resources significantly in mountainous regions. However, until now, most studies have focused on precipitation magnitude and its frequency changes, while seasonal shifts in precipitation types have been mostly neglected. This paper employs the threshold temperature method in combination with multi-source dataset (APHRODITE, CPC and meteorological stations) analysis to determine snowfall proportions in precipitation in the tienshan Mountains, central Asia, during 1960-2017. The results indicated that temperature-induced precipitation shifting from snow to rain. The S/P experienced an overall declining trend, increasing at a rate of 0.6%/decade prior to the mid-1990s, followed by a downward trend at a rate of −0.5%/decade. The S/P decreased mainly at low and middle altitudes (between 1500 and 3500 m). At higher altitudes (over 3500 m), the magnitudes of the decreased S/P ratios were small or even increased due to the temperature always being below freezing. Decreases in S/P are always associated with decreases in annual streamflow in the glacier/ snow melt recharged rivers.Precipitation over alpine regions can occur in different phases of liquid and solid. Snowfall, as the most important component of solid precipitation, is a key part of hydrological processes in the mountains during the cold season. It is also regarded as an indicator that reflects climatic change due to its high sensitivity to alterations in temperature and precipitation 1,2 . The snowfall fraction (S/P) is the ratio of snowfall (S) to precipitation (P), with changes in the S/P depending on alterations in snow and precipitation amounts 3,4 . As there may exist inconsistent changes in snowfall and precipitation, the snowfall fraction can be used as another effective indicator to reflect climate change 5 .Most of the previous studies use temperature or wet-bulb temperature and relative humidity to define thresholds which demarcate the solid and liquid types of precipitation 6-8 . As global temperatures continue to warm, many regions experienced a decreased S/P. The S/P has shown a significant decreasing trend across the New England states 9 , Switzerland 5 , the continental United States 10,11 , the Tibetan Plateau 8,12 , and the Chinese Tienshan Mountains 3 . The S/P has a strong influence on mountainous hydrological processes. The performance of water resource management systems is highly related to changes in the S/P in the regions where the land surface hydrological process is dominated by snow accumulation in winter and melt in spring 6 . Decreases in the S/P can lead to increases in water loss during winter or early spring, whereas increases in the S/P indicate that much more water is being stored as snows until the temperature exceeds the melt point 4,13 . Two widely anticipated changes in the hydr...

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“…The Meiyu climate conditions and related circulation patterns is also skillfully predicted by other operational climate prediction system like the NCEP Climate Forecast System with a lead time of one month (Gao et al, 2011; Liu et al, 2019). Based on verifications of high‐resolution models (Lau & Ploshay, 2009; Li et al, 2018; Lui et al, 2019), the increase of model resolution is emphasized to be an important contributor to the improvement of Meiyu simulation. Meanwhile, the distribution and characteristics of the circulation field and precipitation area during the Meiyu period are basically consistent with the actual observation; the prediction kill of Meiyu intensity is also increasing; and there is also a certain ability to forecast the low‐frequency oscillation of Meiyu.…”

Section: Meiyu Modelling and Predictionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multiscale Variability of Meiyu and Its Prediction: A New Review

Ping²,

et al. 2020

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Following the description of the basic climatic characteristics of Meiyu in East Asia, we present a comprehensive review of multi–time scale variabilities of the Meiyu together with the long‐term change of extreme precipitation during the Meiyu in this paper. The dynamic prediction skills of the Meiyu on subseasonal to seasonal time scales are further described and illustrated by using present numerical prediction models. For the multi–time scale variabilities of the East Asian Meiyu, they are closely related with the impacts of both quasi‐biweekly and 30–60 day oscillation from both the tropics and the middle and high latitudes on intraseasonal time scale, the influences of El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation on interannual time scale, the variations of East Asian summer monsoon on decadal time scale, and the continued impacts of global warming, Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on interdecadal scale and long‐term trend. Under the background of the global warming and the influences of urbanization and aerosol effects, the Meiyu shows some specific characteristics including significantly weakened continuous rain, uneven spatial distribution of precipitation, and increased (decreased) number of strong (weak) precipitation days. Improvements of prediction on rain belt location, total precipitation amount, persistent heavy precipitation events, and low‐frequency variability oscillation during Meiyu season have been achieved with the improved dynamic models of the Beijing Climate Center since 2010.

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Future changes in Asian summer monsoon precipitation extremes as inferred from 20-km AGCM simulations

Cited by 24 publications

References 61 publications

Future Projection of Tropical Cyclone Precipitation over Japan with a High-Resolution Regional Climate Model

Future Projection of Tropical Cyclone Precipitation over Japan with a High-Resolution Regional Climate Model

Declining snowfall fraction in the alpine regions, Central Asia

Multiscale Variability of Meiyu and Its Prediction: A New Review

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