Future changes in precipitation over Central Asia based on CMIP6 projections

Abstract

A stronger than global mean warming trend is projected over Central Asia in the coming century. Based on the historical simulations and projections under four combined scenarios of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and the Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) provided by 15 models from the Sixth Phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we show a comprehensive picture of the future changes in precipitation over Central Asia under rapid warming and investigate possible mechanisms. At the end of the twenty-first century, robust increase of annual mean precipitation under all the scenarios is found (4.23 [2.60 to 7.36] %, 10.52 [5.05 to 13.36] %, 14.51 [8.11 to 16.91] %, 14.41 [9.58 to 21.26] % relative to the present-day for SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5 -8.5, respectively). The response of precipitation to increasing global mean temperature shows similar spatial patterns for the four scenarios with stronger changes over Tianshan mountain and the northern part of Central Asia. Further analysis reveals a wetting trend in spring and a drying trend in summer in both the north of Central Asia (NCA) and south of Central Asia (SCA). The wetting trend in spring is balanced by the increase of evaporation, while the drying trend in summer is mainly contributed by the decrease of vertical moisture advection. The thermodynamic effects associated with humidity changes contribute to the drying trends in both the two domains, while the dynamic effects favor for the drying trend in NCA and offset the drying trend in SCA. The response of precipitation to increasing temperature results in enhanced seasonalities for SCA and NCA, and an advancing of the first peak from summer to spring in the NCA.

High Mountains Becoming Wetter While Deserts Getting Drier in Xinjiang, China since the 1980s

“…According to the analysis results of the CMIP6 ensemble modeling, annual precipitation in most arid regions of Central Asia, especially in Tianshan Mountains Ecozone and Northern Central Asia, increases significantly with the increase of temperature. In addition, the response of annual precipitation to global warming is also higher in areas with larger annual precipitation [42].…”

Examining Fractional Vegetation Cover Dynamics in Response to Climate from 1982 to 2015 in the Amur River Basin for SDG 13

“…The future air temperature and precipitation data produced by the CNRM-ESM2-1 model were used in this study to predict the trend of FVC changes in future under the influence of the climatic changes from 2016 to 2050 (available at https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/). The CNRM-ESM2-1 model participated the 6th Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), and its outputs were widely used in researches on future climate-vegetation interaction [23,24]. Moreover, some researchers found the outputs' temporal behavior for Earth System Models (ESMs, including CNRM-ESM2-1) in CMIP6 was consistent with MODIS data [25].…”

Comparisons Between CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models: Simulations of Climate Indices Influencing Food Security, Infrastructure Resilience, and Human Health in Canada

“…In addition, CMIP6 provides a higher number of simulations for the same forcing to better represent internal variabilities (Eyring et al., 2016; Merrifield et al., 2020; Pascoe et al., 2019; Stouffer et al., 2017). The performance of multiple CMIP6 models in representing precipitation and temperature conditions are assessed in different regions (Akinsanola et al., 2020; Almazroui et al., 2020; Z. Chen et al., 2020; Ha et al., 2020; Jiang et al., 2020; Masud et al., 2021; Wang et al., 2020) and at the global scale (Fan et al., 2020; Na et al., 2020) by considering one simulation per model.…”

“…The performance of multiple CMIP6 models in representing precipitation and temperature conditions are assessed in different regions (Akinsanola et al, 2020;Almazroui et al, 2020;Z. Chen et al, 2020;Ha et al, 2020;Jiang et al, 2020;Masud et al, 2021;Wang et al, 2020) and at the global scale (Fan et al, 2020;Na et al, 2020) by considering one simulation per model. Understanding the differences between behavior of CMIP5 and CMIP6 models is essential due to their critical role in evaluating the impact of climate change.…”