Future Changes in the Aridity of South America from Regional Climate Model Projections

Fernández, Júlio Pablo Reyes; Franchito, Sérgio H.; Rao, V. Brahmananda

doi:10.1007/s00024-019-02108-4

Cited by 16 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…In addition, estimations of future climate based on different atmospheric circulation models show that there will be global warming and an increase in climatic aridity in many zones globally. In the case of northeastern Brazil, projections predict an increase in droughts and decrease in water storage (Marengo and Bernasconi 2015;Fernandez et al 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial distribution and estimation of rainfall trends and erosivity in the Epitácio Pessoa reservoir catchment, Paraíba, Brazil

et al. 2020

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The main goals of this study are to better understand the spatial and temporal variabilities in rainfall and to identify rainfall trends and erosivity for the period from 1963 to 1991 in the Epitácio Pessoa reservoir catchment, which is located in Paraíba, northeastern Brazil. This study analyzes annual rainfall trends on a regional scale by using monthly data from 13 rainfall stations. For this purpose, the nonparametric Mann–Kendall and Sen methods were used in the analysis. Descriptive statistics methods and interpolation techniques were also used for spatial–temporal analysis of the annual rainfall. A detailed statistical analysis applied to the time series of all the stations indicates that the rainfall presents substantial annual spatial–temporal variability and a negative trend (decrease) in the mean rainfall at most of the rainfall stations in the catchment during the study period. The results only showed a positive trend for the Soledade and Pocinhos stations. The distribution of positive and negative trends in the Epitácio Pessoa reservoir catchment is extremely irregular, and the changes in the study area are more significant compared to those identified in other studies. Graphic abstract

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial distribution and estimation of rainfall trends and erosivity in the Epitácio Pessoa reservoir catchment, Paraíba, Brazil

et al. 2020

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“…In the RCP8.5 the model project more severe dry years and not indicate the consecutive wet years from 2039 to 2042. This tendency of more frequent and intense periods of droughts in the NEB until the middle of the century in the RCP8.5 scenario are also pointed out in previous studies (Marengo and Bernasconi, 2015; Fernandez et al ., 2019; Marengo et al ., 2020); and with climatic projections that such conditions will be even more severe by the end of the century (Sillmann et al ., 2013; Marengo et al ., 2017b; Alves et al ., 2021; Wang et al ., 2021).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Meteorological droughts and water resources: Historical and future perspectives for Rio Grande do Norte state, Northeast Brazil

Medeiros

Gomes

Coutinho³

et al. 2022

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…As supported by Xu et al [76] and Salvati et al [78], the aspect has important effects on vegetation growth and soil erosion rate. However, we suggest that further studies should be conducted to evaluate the effect of climate change in Amazonia and other areas of the world, as there is a probability that new areas will become arid in a short period of time [9,15,20,23,47,74,77,[107][108][109].…”

Section: On Quality Indicatorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial Analysis of Environmentally Sensitive Areas to Soil Degradation Using MEDALUS Model and GIS in Amazonas (Peru): An Alternative for Ecological Restoration

et al. 2022

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Land degradation is a permanent global threat that requires an interdisciplinary approach to addressing solutions in a given territory. This study, therefore, analyses environmentally sensitive areas to land degradation using the Mediterranean Desertification and Land Use (MEDALUS) and Geographic Information System (GIS) method through a multi-criteria approach in the district of Florida (Peru). For the method, we considered the main quality indicators such as: Climate Quality Index (CQI), Soil Quality Index (SQI), Vegetation Quality Index (VQI), and Management Quality Index (MQI). There were also identified groups of parameters for each of the quality indicators analyzed. The results showed that 2.96% of the study area is classified as critical; 48.85% of the surface is classified as fragile; 15.48% of the areas are potentially endangered, and 30.46% are not threatened by degradation processes. Furthermore, SQI, VQI, and MQI induced degradation processes in the area. Based on the results, five restoration proposals were made in the study area: (i) organic manure production, (ii) cultivated and improved pastures and livestock improvement, (iii) native forest restoration, (iv) construction of reservoirs in the top hills and (v) uses of new technologies. The findings and proposals can be a basic support and further improved by decision-makers when implemented in situ to mitigate degradation for a sustainable use of the territory.

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Future Changes in the Aridity of South America from Regional Climate Model Projections

Cited by 16 publications

References 18 publications

Spatial distribution and estimation of rainfall trends and erosivity in the Epitácio Pessoa reservoir catchment, Paraíba, Brazil

Spatial distribution and estimation of rainfall trends and erosivity in the Epitácio Pessoa reservoir catchment, Paraíba, Brazil

Meteorological droughts and water resources: Historical and future perspectives for Rio Grande do Norte state, Northeast Brazil

Spatial Analysis of Environmentally Sensitive Areas to Soil Degradation Using MEDALUS Model and GIS in Amazonas (Peru): An Alternative for Ecological Restoration

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