Future changes to the intensity and frequency of short-duration extreme rainfall

Westra, Seth; Fowler, Hayley J.; Evans, Jason P.; Alexander, Lisa V.; Berg, Peter; Johnson, Fiona; Kendon, Elizabeth J.; Lenderink, Geert; Roberts, Nigel

doi:10.1002/2014rg000464

Cited by 1,122 publications

(953 citation statements)

References 244 publications

(356 reference statements)

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“…This long-term process has resulted in the alteration of the natural hydrological cycle by reducing the infiltration and evaporation capacity of urban catchments, increasing surface runoff, and reducing groundwater recharge. While some studies highlighted a decrease of recharge as a result of an increase of impervious was also confirmed in other studies (e.g., Westra et al, 2014). This will be accompanied by a more frequent occurrence of flooding events in urban areas (Carbone et al, 2015b).…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 60%

A comprehensive numerical analysis of the hydraulic behavior of a permeable pavement

Brunetti

Šimůnek

Piro

2016

Journal of Hydrology

120

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a b s t r a c tThe increasing frequency of flooding events in urban catchments related to an increase in impervious surfaces highlights the inadequacy of traditional urban drainage systems. Low Impact Development (LID) techniques have proven to be a viable and effective alternative by reducing stormwater runoff and increasing the infiltration and evapotranspiration capacity of urban areas. However, the lack of adequate modeling tools represents a barrier in designing and constructing such systems. This paper investigates the suitability of a mechanistic model, HYDRUS-1D, to correctly describe the hydraulic behavior of permeable pavement installed at the University of Calabria. Two different scenarios of describing the hydraulic behavior of the permeable pavement system were analyzed: the first one uses a singleporosity model for all layers of the permeable pavement; the second one uses a dual-porosity model for the base and sub-base layers. Measured and modeled month-long hydrographs were compared using the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) index. A Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) followed by a Monte Carlo filtering highlighted the influence of the wear layer on the hydraulic behavior of the pavement and identified the ranges of parameters generating behavioral solutions. Reduced ranges were then used in the calibration procedure conducted with the metaheuristic Particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm for the estimation of hydraulic parameters. The best fit value for the first scenario was NSE = 0.43; for the second scenario, it was NSE = 0.81, indicating that the dual-porosity approach is more appropriate for describing the variably-saturated flow in the base and sub-base layers. Estimated parameters were validated using an independent, month-long set of measurements, resulting in NSE values of 0.43 and 0.86 for the first and second scenarios, respectively. The improvement in correspondence between measured and modeled hydrographs confirmed the reliability of the combination of GSA and PSO in dealing with highly dimensional optimization problems. Obtained results have demonstrated that PSO, due to its easiness of implementation and effectiveness, can represent a new and viable alternative to traditional optimization algorithms for the inverse estimation of unsaturated hydraulic properties. Finally, the results confirmed the suitability and the accuracy of HYDRUS-1D in correctly describing the hydraulic behavior of permeable pavements.

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Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 60%

A comprehensive numerical analysis of the hydraulic behavior of a permeable pavement

Brunetti

Šimůnek

Piro

2016

Journal of Hydrology

120

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“…Trenberth et al 2003), or rather a super-CCrate (Lenderink and van Meijgaard 2008;Berg et al 2013;Westra et al 2014). When comparing historical to end of century projections in the RCP8.5 scenario, Ban et al (2015) found an intensification of the extremes according to the standard CC-rate over the Alps and surrounding regions, while for the southern UK, Kendon et al (2014) found that the increase in convective precipitation was consistent with a super-CC-rate.…”

Section: Atmospheric Conditions Leading To Convective Precipitationmentioning

confidence: 97%

Climate change in the next 30 years: What can a convection-permitting model tell us that we did not already know?

Fosser

Khodayar²,

Berg

2016

Clim Dyn

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probably due to large-scale forced convection is found when considering only the most extreme events (above 50 mm/day). In this case, even the diurnal cycles of precipitation and convection-related indices are similar between resolutions, leading to the conclusion that the 7 km model sufficiently resolves the most extreme convective events. In this region and time periods, the 7 km resolution is deemed sufficient for most assessments of near future precipitation change. However, conclusions could be dependent on the characteristics of the region of investigation.

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“…The CC relation considerably influences the changes in the extreme precipitation intensity under warmer climates (Betts and Harshvardhan 1987;Trenberth et al 2003;Held and Soden 2006;Pall et al 2007;Kharin et al 2007; O' Gorman and Muller 2010;Muller et al 2011;Romps 2011;Westra et al 2014). Considering this, observed relations between extreme precipitation and temperature have received considerable attention.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Scaling precipitation extremes with temperature in the Mediterranean: past climate assessment and projection in anthropogenic scenarios

et al. 2016

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temperature-precipitation extremes relationship displays a hook shape across the Mediterranean, with negative slope at high temperatures and a slope following Clausius-Clapeyron (CC)-scaling at low temperatures. The temperature at which the slope of the temperature-precipitation extreme relation sharply changes (or temperature break), ranges from about 20 °C in the western Mediterranean to <10 °C in Greece. In addition, this slope is always negative in the arid regions of the Mediterranean. The scaling of the simulated precipitation extremes is insensitive to oceanatmosphere coupling, while it depends very weakly on the resolution at high temperatures for short precipitation accumulation times. In future climate scenario simulations covering the 2070-2100 period, the temperature break shifts to higher temperatures by a value which is on average the mean regional temperature change due to global warming. AbstractIn this study we investigate the scaling of precipitation extremes with temperature in the Mediterranean region by assessing against observations the present day and future regional climate simulations performed in the frame of the HyMeX and MED-CORDEX programs. Over the 1979-2008 period, despite differences in quantitative precipitation simulation across the various models, the change in precipitation extremes with respect to temperature is robust and consistent. The spatial variability of the This paper is a contribution to the special issue on Med-CORDEX, an international coordinated initiative dedicated to the multi-component regional climate modelling (atmosphere, ocean, land surface, river) of the Mediterranean under the umbrella of HyMeX, CORDEX, and Med-CLIVAR and coordinated by Samuel Somot, Paolo Ruti, Erika Coppola, Gianmaria Sannino, Bodo Ahrens, and Gabriel Jordà. 3The slope of the simulated future temperature-precipitation extremes relationship is close to CC-scaling at temperatures below the temperature break, while at high temperatures, the negative slope is close, but somewhat flatter or steeper, than in the current climate depending on the model. Overall, models predict more intense precipitation extremes in the future. Adjusting the temperature-precipitation extremes relationship in the present climate using the CC law and the temperature shift in the future allows the recovery of the temperature-precipitation extremes relationship in the future climate. This implies negligible regional changes of relative humidity in the future despite the large warming and drying over the Mediterranean. This suggests that the Mediterranean Sea is the primary source of moisture which counteracts the drying and warming impacts on relative humidity in parts of the Mediterranean region.

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Future changes to the intensity and frequency of short-duration extreme rainfall

Cited by 1,122 publications

References 244 publications

A comprehensive numerical analysis of the hydraulic behavior of a permeable pavement

A comprehensive numerical analysis of the hydraulic behavior of a permeable pavement

Climate change in the next 30 years: What can a convection-permitting model tell us that we did not already know?

Scaling precipitation extremes with temperature in the Mediterranean: past climate assessment and projection in anthropogenic scenarios

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