Future climate change and impacts on water resources in the Upper Blue Nile basin

Takele, Gebiyaw Sitotaw; Gebre, Geremew Sahilu; Gebremariam, Azage Gebreyohannes; Engida, Agizew Nigussie

doi:10.2166/wcc.2021.235

Cited by 23 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…Because most global challenges including food security, biodiversity loss, water security, and human health are linked to extreme events brought on by climate change, it is crucial to comprehend the pattern of precipitation and temperature trends as well as their variability [ 56 ]. Therefore, the results of this study will be useful to basin planners, policymakers, and water resources managers in developing adaptation strategies to offset the adverse effects of climate change on water resources [ 57 ]. The study was limited in that only a few water quality parameters were assessed; therefore, it is recommended that future studies add analysis of climate change impact on more microbiological and physicochemical parameters.…”

Section: Conclusion and Recommendationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Ripple Effect of Climate Change: Assessing the Impacts on Water Quality and Hydrology in Addis Ababa City (Akaki Catchment)

Gule,

Hailu,

Lemma

2024

Scientifica

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This research aimed to evaluate the effects of climate change on the hydrology and water quality in the Akaki catchment, which provides water to Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. This was performed using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model and an ensemble of four global climate models under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) emission scenarios from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The climate data were downscaled and bias-corrected using the CMhyd tool and calibrated and validated using the SWAT-CUP software package. Change points and patterns in annual rainfall and temperature were determined using the homogeneity test and Mann–Kendell trend test. Water quality data were obtained from Addis Ababa Water and Sewerage Authority (AAWSA), and more samples were taken and analyzed in accordance with APHA recommended procedures. The SWAT model output was then used to assess the impacts of climate change on hydrological components and water quality. Rainfall increased by 19.39 mm/year under SSP2-4.5 and 12.8 mm/year under SSP8.5. Maximum temperature increased by 0.03°C/yr for SSP2-4.5 and 0.04°C/yr for SSP5-8.5. Minimum temperature increased by 0.03°C/yr under SSP2-4.5 and 0.07°C/yr under SSP5-8.5. This warming will augment the evapotranspiration rate which in turn will have a negative impact on the freshwater availability. Streamflow will increase by 5% under SSP2-4.5 and 9.49% under SSP5-85 which may increase sporadic flooding events. Climate change is expected to contribute to the deterioration of water quality shown by 61%, 36%, 79%, 115%, and 70% increased ammonia, chlorophyll-a, nitrite, nitrate, and phosphorus loadings, respectively, from 2022. The increase in temperature results in increases in nutrient loading and a decrease in dissolved oxygen. Overall, this research demonstrated the vulnerability of the catchment to climate change. The findings of this research can offer vital knowledge to policymakers on possible strategies for the sustainable management of water.

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Section: Conclusion and Recommendationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Ripple Effect of Climate Change: Assessing the Impacts on Water Quality and Hydrology in Addis Ababa City (Akaki Catchment)

Gule,

Hailu,

Lemma

2024

Scientifica

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“…In contrast to non-parametric approaches, parametric methods presuppose a normal distribution of variables. The Mann-Kendall test is resilient against outliers, it does not require the elimination of outliers before trend discovery, and it does not make any assumptions about the distribution of the data (Takele et al, 2022). Hence, the Mann-Kendall nonparametric trend test by Mann (1945) and Kendall (1970) was used in this study.…”

Section: Trend Analysis Of Future Temperatures and Precipitationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Coefficient of determination (R 2 ) (Krause et al, 2005), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) (Nash, 1970), and percent of bias (Gupta et al, 1999) statistical parameters have been used to evaluate the SWAT model's performance evaluation. This is due to these statistical parameters being the most commonly used methods (Takele et al, 2022). Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies (𝐍𝐒𝐄) Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies (NSE) (Table 4 and Equation 11) range from infinity to one and are calculated by comparing the model's goodness-of-fit to the variance of the observed data.…”

Section: Model Performance Evaluationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of Future Drought Characterization Under Multiple Drought Indices and Climate Change Impact Conditions for Developing Best Strategic Measures with CMIP-6 Climate Model in Mille Watershed, Lower Awash Basin, Ethiopia

Amognehegn,

Nigussie,

Assega

et al. 2023

Preprint

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The agricultural sector is vulnerable to extreme phenomena such as droughts, particularly in arid and semi-arid environments and in regions where water infrastructure is limited. The objective of this study is to analyze future drought characteristics in meteorological, hydrology, and agricultural droughts under climate change in Mille watershed using three drought indices; Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI), Streamflow Drought Index (SDI) and Agricultural Standardized Precipitation Index (aSPI). The study used baseline data (1985–2014) and future (2041–2100) downscaled from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP-6) based on the three Global Climate Models; (MIROC-6, CMCC and MRI) under two scenarios of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) with Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to simulate future streamflow for two future time horizons 2050s (2041–2070) and 2080s (2071–2100). as a result, in the future most hazardous Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) event occurred at Kombolcha, Mille, Batie and Sirinka with magnitude and frequency of 2050s (-1.51, 4.76%), 2058 (-1.49, 6.16%), 2063s (-1.52, 5.65%) and 2066 (-1.5, 4.48%) respectively, but in the annual time scale (SDI-12) extreme and severe hydrological drought events occurred 2088 (-2.00) and 2091 (-1.51) in SSP2-4.5 for study area, and also compared to other Mille and Batie stations experienced more frequently agricultural drought in terms of location. Generally, the RDI confirmed a significant drought trend in the past, while the frequency and severity of drought will increase in the future, however relatively less frequent hydrological drought events are observed in the study area and in the watershed both precipitation and streamflow will decline in the wet seasons and increase in the dry seasons. These findings may be useful for preparedness plans, including means for efficient monitoring and timely identification of drought events, is essential for informed decision making on drought mitigation and water management, especially for the water-dependent agricultural sector.

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Application of coupled MIKE SHE/MIKE HYDRO on streamflow dynamics under climate change in Lake Tana sub basin, Abay Basin, Ethiopia

Fetene,

Lohani,

Mohammed

2024

World Water Policy

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Water availability and quality are fluctuating due to climate change, which has disastrous effects on life. Modeling climate change impact on streamflow in the Lake Tana sub‐basin (LTSB) in selected watersheds was the main goal of the research. This research is unique in that it applies the coupled MIKE SHE/MIKE HYDRO model technique, which has not been applied before to investigate changes in streamflow due to climate change in LTSB. Streamflow in the LTSB was forecasted using the MIKE SHE/MIKE HYDRO model from seven ensembles of GCMs under two emission scenarios (SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5) between 2041 and 2,100. According to the calibration and validation results in the period of 1985–2007, MIKE SHE performs well while simulating streamflow in LTSB. During calibration and validation, the Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) values in all watersheds were greater than 0.8, except for the Ribb watershed calibration, where it was 0.75. The mean monthly changes in temperatures indicate an incremental tendency in the next decades. According to the simulation result, the monthly mean rainfall for SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5 will increase from 0.05 to 61.9% and 2.02 to 46.26% in the 2050s and 8.7 to 44.38% to 6.44 to 66.24% in the 2080s, respectively. Gilgle Abay, Gumara, and Ribb watersheds will lose 56.2, 56.65, 57.01% of their mean monthly streamflow in the 2050s, according to SSP2–4.5. For the Gilgle Abay, Gumara, and Ribb watersheds, streamflow will increase by 6.7% to 21.94%, 6.08% to 23.26%, and 6.51% to 22.88%, accordingly, in the 2050s under SSP5–8.5. Increased rainfall in the watershed could result in floods in the already‐flooded Gumara and Ribb flood plains. The government and community should implement coping mechanisms to lessen the impact of climate change like early warring and planting more trees. Overall, the study showed that it is expected that conditions related to streamflow may change in the future due to climate alteration. By offering a better understanding of current and future climates, the integrated modeling system developed can assist environmentalists, hydrologists, and policymakers in water management and policy intervention.

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Future climate change and impacts on water resources in the Upper Blue Nile basin

Cited by 23 publications

References 51 publications

The Ripple Effect of Climate Change: Assessing the Impacts on Water Quality and Hydrology in Addis Ababa City (Akaki Catchment)

The Ripple Effect of Climate Change: Assessing the Impacts on Water Quality and Hydrology in Addis Ababa City (Akaki Catchment)

Analysis of Future Drought Characterization Under Multiple Drought Indices and Climate Change Impact Conditions for Developing Best Strategic Measures with CMIP-6 Climate Model in Mille Watershed, Lower Awash Basin, Ethiopia

Application of coupled MIKE SHE/MIKE HYDRO on streamflow dynamics under climate change in Lake Tana sub basin, Abay Basin, Ethiopia

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