Future climatic changes, extreme events, related uncertainties, and policy recommendations in the Hindu Kush sub-regions of Pakistan

Ali, Shaukat; Saeed, Alia; Kiani, Rida Sehar; Sher, Muhammad; Khan, Firdos; Babar, Romaisa; Khan, Asif; Iqbal, Muhammad Shahid; Goheer, Muhammad Arif; Naseem, Wajid; Fahad, Shah

doi:10.1007/s00704-020-03399-7

Cited by 10 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…It leads to reduce the proportional income spent on food and ultimately increases the real income. Recent literature witnessed the gravity of the reputation of input utilization 50 – 54 and the availability of a handsome amount of literature witnessed the impact of climate change on crops 55 – 65 . Tu et al 54 experimented on rice plant growth after twenty days of sowing and suggested the adjustment of sowing days to avail the suitable temperature which stabilizes and improves rice grain.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Identification of climate induced optimal rice yield and vulnerable districts rankings of the Punjab, Pakistan

Janjua¹,

Aslam

Sultana

et al. 2021

Sci Rep

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The study attracted to insinuate the inhabitant anomalies of the crop yield in the districts of the Punjab where climate variation, inputs utilization, and district exponents are indispensable factors. Impact evaluation of sowing and harvesting dates for rice yield has been analyzed. Suitable sowing and harvesting dates and potential districts for the crop are proposed. Data consisting of 13,617 observations of more than 90 factors encompassing valuable dimensions of the growth of the crops collected through comprehensive surveys conducted by the Agriculture Department of Punjab are formulated to incorporate in this study. The results establish the significant negative repercussions of climate variability while the impacts vary in the districts. The crop yield deteriorates considerably by delaying the sowing and harvesting times. Districts climate-induced vulnerability ranking revealed Layyah, Jhelum, Mianwali, Khanewal and Chinniot, the most vulnerable while Kasur, Gujrat, Mandi Bhauddin, Nankana Sahib and Hafizabad, the least vulnerable districts. Spatial mapping explains the geographical pattern of vulnerabilities and yield/monetary losses. The study ranks districts using climate-induced yield and monetary loss (222.30 thousand metric tons of rice which are equal to 27.79 billion PKR climatic losses in single rice season) and recommends: the formation of district policy to abate the adverse climate impact, utilization of suitable climate variation by adhering proper sowing and harvesting times, setting the prioritized districts facing climate-induced losses for urgent attention and preferable districts for rice crop.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Identification of climate induced optimal rice yield and vulnerable districts rankings of the Punjab, Pakistan

Janjua¹,

Aslam

Sultana

et al. 2021

Sci Rep

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show abstract

“…Climate change can be considered as an anomaly that explicitly varies in different stretches of terrestrial realm, yet, variation in climate extremes can dispense even more severe and unforeseen impacts in Pakistan (Ali et al, 2019). In light of changing climate, Ali et al (2021) warns that warm and wet conditions may prevail in future projections of Pakistan. Precipitation variability augmented with surging frequency and intensity of climate extremes have become two of the most imperative and critical issues for policymakers since the end of 20 th century (Rehman et al, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A study conducted by Bhatti et al, (2020) investigated the variability of extreme precipitation events by assessing trends in precipitation extreme indices using daily historical precipitation data over Pakistan. Very recently, Ali et al (2021) explored future projections of temperature and precipitation by analysing future extremes projected by using the standard indices from the ETCCDI over districts of Pakistan situated in the Hindu Kush region. Towards Northwest Himalayas (Pakistan), Aziz et al, (2021) studied variability of temperature extremes using the ETCCDI methods for early 21 st century.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Univariate Statistics of the RCPs Forced ET–SCI Based Extreme Climate Indices Over Pakistan

Burhan¹,

Khan²,

Bukhari³

et al. 2021

EUR J SUSTAIN DEV RES

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Numerical summaries of univariate climatic records, such as temperature and precipitation, are useful for making quantitative decisions for mitigation and adaptation measures. Climate simulations and projections often contain values that lie far away from substance of the data. These values can bias the summary statistics away from values representative for majority of the sample. This problem can be avoided by selecting ensembles approach as well as by using statistics that are resistant to the presence of such outliers. Hence, in addition to typical statistics, resistant statistics are used to investigate spatiotemporal changes in temperature and precipitation extremes over a versatile agro-climatic featured country of Pakistan, by engaging the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 that provides statistically downscaled Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate baseline and projections (2021-2050) based on Expert Team on Sector-specific Climate Indices (ET-SCI) method. The results show the following: (a) Shifts in the univariate count statistics under the RCP8.5 are highly prominent with 0.81 degrees deviation in 5th percentile and with a substantial 1.86 degrees deviation in the 95th percentile of the maximum of daily maximum temperature over the projected time series. (b) Standard deviation of historical summer days is placed at 3.7 days with a consistent change under the RCP4.5 emission scenario. Nevertheless, the standard deviation of the summer days hikes by 5.9 days under the RCP8.5 emission scenario. (c) A distressing condition is comprehended under the RCP8.5 emission scenario where changes of 16.5 percent in the 5th and of 19.7 percent in the 95th percentiles are revealed in the warm nights future projections. (d) The maximum rate of simple daily intensity of precipitation in the historical period exists at 0.2 mm/day, however, the RCP4.5 emission scenario thrusts that up to 0.6 mm/day in the projection period. (e) Under the RCP8.5 emission scenario, the standard deviation inflates by 36.4 days while range digresses by an enormous 95 days in the projection period of the consecutive dry days. The outcomes are of applied practice in improving local approaches for hydro-reservoirs and eco-environment controlling, especially in the diverse climatic region of Pakistan.

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Global Framework on Climate Change

Abbas

Raza

Ahmed

et al. 2023

Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture

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Future climatic changes, extreme events, related uncertainties, and policy recommendations in the Hindu Kush sub-regions of Pakistan

Cited by 10 publications

References 33 publications

Identification of climate induced optimal rice yield and vulnerable districts rankings of the Punjab, Pakistan

Identification of climate induced optimal rice yield and vulnerable districts rankings of the Punjab, Pakistan

Univariate Statistics of the RCPs Forced ET–SCI Based Extreme Climate Indices Over Pakistan

Global Framework on Climate Change

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