Future coral reef habitat marginality: temporal and spatial effects of climate change in the Pacific basin

Guinotte, John M.; Buddemeier, Robert W.; Kleypas, Joan A.

doi:10.1007/s00338-003-0331-4

Cited by 237 publications

(209 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…Many marine organisms are very sensitive to changes in ocean CO 2 chemistry -especially those biota that use carbonate ions dissolved in the sea water to form protective calcium carbonate shells or skeletal structures. Surface ocean pH has decreased by about 0.1 pH units (corresponding to a 30% increase in hydrogen ion concentration and a 16 % decline in carbonate concentrations) since pre-industrial times (Guinotte et al 2003;Feely et al, 2004;Orr et al, 2005;Guinotte & Fabry, 2008;Doney et al, 2009). This rate of acidification is at least 100 times faster than at any other time in the last 20 million years.…”

Section: Ocean Acidificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…arag values between 3-3.5) or extremely marginal conditions (! arag values below 3) almost everywhere by as early as 2050 (Kleypas et al, 1999;Guinotte et al, 2003;Langdon et al, 2005;Hoegh-Guldberg et al, 2007) causing substantial changes in species composition and in the dynamics of coral and other reef communities (Kuffner et al, 2008;Guinotte and Fabry, 2008;Doney et al, 2009). Similarly, marine plankton are also vulnerable (Riebesell et al 2000), presumably with ripple effects up the food chain.…”

Section: Ocean Acidificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A safe operating space for humanity

Rockström

Steffen

Noone

et al. 2009

Nature

9,635

5,320

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The article presents a study that investigates on the importance of identifying and quantifying planetary boundaries to prevent human activities in affecting environmental condition. The author states the industrial revolution and advancement in human civilization has caused the unstability of the environmental state that is less conducive for humans to live and affect their health condition. The author notes that planetary boundaries served a control variables to secure the safety of its citizen as well as protect the environment from shifting to dangerous levels. It also cites the different planetary boundaries, along with its impact on climate change and Earth system degradation

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Section: Ocean Acidificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Ocean Acidificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

A safe operating space for humanity

Rockström

Steffen

Noone

et al. 2009

Nature

9,635

5,320

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Observational studies have shown that corals are sensitive to ΩA, although consensus on the exact form of the response has not yet been reached (Pandolfi et al, 2011). Nevertheless Guinotte et al (2003) suggested, based on historical data, that in tropical coral growth regions ΩA values less than 3.5 would be marginal for corals, less than 3 very marginal and for values less than 2.5, corals are not historically found.…”

Section: Figurementioning

confidence: 99%

Marine projections of warming and ocean acidification in the Australasian region

Lenton¹,

McInnes²,

O’Grady³

2015

AMOJ

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In response to increasing carbon dioxide emissions the oceans have become warmer and more acidic. In this paper, the ability of Earth System Models to simulate observed temperature and ocean acidification around Australia is assessed. The model results are also compared with observations collected at stations around Australia over recent years to assess how representative the model results are of the coastal domain; and are found to adequately simulate the mean state at most sites.Simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) under low, medium and high emissions scenarios (RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 respectively) are then used to project how ocean acidification and sea surface temperature will change. Under each of these emissions scenarios the oceans around Australia exhibit warming and continued acidification. However, these changes are quite heterogeneous, with increases of up to +6 K (under RCP 8.5) above the pre-industrial value, projected in areas such as the Tasman Sea. We conclude that the projected changes in SST, aragonite saturation state and pH are likely to profoundly impact marine ecosystems, and the ecosystem services that they provide in the Australasian region.

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“…Geographical isolation (Kleypas et al 1999a;Hughes et al 2003), as well as their location in areas of rapidly declining aragonite saturation (e.g. Kleypas et al 1999b;Guinotte et al 2003) may further contribute to their vulnerability. The capacity of corals at subtropical reefs to survive disturbances, such as mass bleaching, disease, crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS) outbreaks or chronic stressors such as rapidly changing SSTs and ocean chemistry, will depend partly on their population genetic structure, as remote populations are predicted to have small effective population sizes, low genetic diversity and to suffer from inbreeding.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Genetic diversity and connectivity in a brooding reef coral at the limit of its distribution

2009

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Remote populations are predicted to be vulnerable owing to their isolation from potential source reefs, and usually low population size and associated increased extinction risk. We investigated genetic diversity, population subdivision and connectivity in the brooding reef coral Seriatopora hystrix at the limits of its Eastern Australian (EA) distribution and three sites in the southern Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Over the approximately 1270 km survey range, high levels of population subdivision were detected (global F ST ¼ 0.224), with the greatest range in pairwise F ST values observed among the three southernmost locations: Lord Howe Island, Elizabeth Reef and Middleton Reef. Flinders Reef, located between the GBR and the more southerly offshore reefs, was highly isolated and showed the signature of a recent bottleneck. High pairwise F ST values and the presence of multiple genetic clusters indicate that EA subtropical coral populations have been historically isolated from each other and the GBR. One putative first-generation migrant was detected from the GBR into the EA subtropics. Occasional long-distance dispersal is supported by changes in species composition at these high-latitude reefs and the occurrence of new species records over the past three decades. While subtropical populations exhibited significantly lower allelic richness than their GBR counterparts, genetic diversity was still moderately high. Furthermore, subtropical populations were not inbred and had a considerable number of private alleles. The results suggest that these high-latitude S. hystrix populations are supplemented by infrequent longdistance migrants from the GBR and may have adequate population sizes to maintain viability and resist severe losses of genetic diversity.

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Future coral reef habitat marginality: temporal and spatial effects of climate change in the Pacific basin

Cited by 237 publications

References 21 publications

A safe operating space for humanity

A safe operating space for humanity

Marine projections of warming and ocean acidification in the Australasian region

Genetic diversity and connectivity in a brooding reef coral at the limit of its distribution

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