Future effects of climate change on the suitability of wine grape production across Europe

Cardell, Maria Francisca; Amengual, A.; Romero, R.

doi:10.1007/s10113-019-01502-x

Cited by 64 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…Apparently, projection results suggest that wine grapes will be negatively affected in southern Europe (e.g., Portugal, Spain and Italy), due to a future increase in the cumulative thermal stress and dryness during the growing season [95]. These changes represent an important constraint to grapevine growth and development, resulting in negative impacts on table quality vines and wine quality [95,96]. Furthermore, the synergistic effect of the projected precipitation will overall decrease, and higher rates of evapotranspiration due to a warmer climate will likely increase water requirements, particularly during summer, in southern Europe [96] and will promote severe water stress over several regions (e.g., southern Spain, Portugal, and Italy), locally reducing yield and leaf area.…”

Section: Potential Future Impacts: the Big Picturementioning

confidence: 99%

“…These changes represent an important constraint to grapevine growth and development, resulting in negative impacts on table quality vines and wine quality [95,96]. Furthermore, the synergistic effect of the projected precipitation will overall decrease, and higher rates of evapotranspiration due to a warmer climate will likely increase water requirements, particularly during summer, in southern Europe [96] and will promote severe water stress over several regions (e.g., southern Spain, Portugal, and Italy), locally reducing yield and leaf area. Regions such as Andalucía, La Mancha (Spain), Alentejo (Portugal), Sicily, Apulia and Campania (Italy) will very likely suffer from severe water deficits [77].…”

Section: Potential Future Impacts: the Big Picturementioning

confidence: 99%

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Future Climate Change Impacts on European Viticulture: A Review on Recent Scientific Advances

2021

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Climate change is a continuous spatiotemporal reality, possibly endangering the viability of the grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.) in the future. Europe emerges as an especially responsive area where the grapevine is largely recognised as one of the most important crops, playing a key environmental and socio-economic role. The mounting evidence on significant impacts of climate change on viticulture urges the scientific community in investigating the potential evolution of these impacts in the upcoming decades. In this review work, a first attempt for the compilation of selected scientific research on this subject, during a relatively recent time frame (2010–2020), is implemented. For this purpose, a thorough investigation through multiple search queries was conducted and further screened by focusing exclusively on the predicted productivity parameters (phenology timing, product quality and yield) and cultivation area alteration. Main findings on the potential impacts of future climate change are described as changes in grapevine phenological timing, alterations in grape and wine composition, heterogeneous effects on grapevine yield, the expansion into areas that were previously unsuitable for grapevine cultivation and significant geographical displacements in traditional growing areas. These compiled findings may facilitate and delineate the implementation of effective adaptation and mitigation strategies, ultimately potentiating the future sustainability of European viticulture.

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Section: Potential Future Impacts: the Big Picturementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Potential Future Impacts: the Big Picturementioning

confidence: 99%

Future Climate Change Impacts on European Viticulture: A Review on Recent Scientific Advances

2021

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“…In Portugal grapevines are one of the most important perennial crops, growing in over 30 different denominations of origin, which support a reputed wine industry strongly linked to specific wine regions (Moriondo et al, 2013;IVV, 2018). The operational efficiency of this wine industry is strongly influenced by regional annual wine production (WP) as well as its inter-annual variability (Cardell et al, 2019). Unpredictable temporal variability of WP is a major threat for farmer and its associations, wine sellers, insurances, researchers, natural resources managers and policy makers among others (Quiroga and Iglesias 2009;Cunha et al, 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate-induced cyclical properties of regional wine production using a time-frequency approach in Douro and Minho Wine Regions

Cunha

Richter

2020

Ciência Téc. Vitiv.

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The impact of climate on wine production (WP) temporal cycles in Douro (DR) and Vinhos Verdes (VVR) wine regions for a period of about 80 years, characterized by strong technological trend and climate variability, was modelled. The cyclical properties of WP, and which cycles are determined by spring temperature (ST) and soil water during summer (SW), were identified. It was achieved by applying a time-frequency approach, which is based on Kalman filter in the time domain. The time-varying autoregressive model can explain more than 67% (DR) and 95% (VVR) of the WP’ variability and the integration of the ST and mainly SW increase the models’ reliability. The results were then transferred into the frequency domain, and can show that WP in both regions is characterized by two cycles close to 5-6 and 2.5 years around the long run trend. The ST and SW showed great capacity to explain the cyclicality of WP in the studied regions being the coherence temporarily much more stable in VVR than in the DR, where a shift of the relative importance away from ST to SW can be recognized. This could be an indicator of lower impact of the foreseen hot and dry climate scenarios on WP in the regions with a maritime climate, such as the VVR, compared with hot and dry wine regions. Despite the marked differences in the two studied regions on ecological, viticulture practices and technological trend, the modelling approach based on time-frequency proved to be an efficient tool to infer the impact of climate on the dynamics of cyclical properties of regional WP, foreseeing its generalized use in other regions. This modelling approach can be an important tool for planning in the wine industry as well as for mitigation strategies facing the scenarios that combine technological progress and climate change.

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“…Qualitative social science approaches have been used in the context of sustainable agriculture research (Rasmussen et al, 2018;Gosnell et al, 2019) and climate change adaptation research (Moser and Ekstrom, 2010), but are relatively uncommon in wine research, which focuses predominantly on viticulture and enology (for example, the American Journal of Enology and Viticulture or the Australian Journal of Grape and Wine Research) and wine business and economics (for example, the International Journal of Wine Business Research). There is a growing conversation about the relevance and urgency of climate change adaptation for wine regions globally (Cardell et al, 2019;Harris et al, 2019), and qualitative research methods, such as case studies and thematic analysis, can be used to increase understanding about water governance and climate change adaptation. These approaches can also be used to deepen understanding about the relationship between social and natural systems in other aspects of the wine industry, for example, land use, labor issues, and wildfire risk (Martín-López et al, 2017;Palaiologou et al, 2019).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change and Water Governance: Decision Making for Individual Vineyard Owners in Global Wine Regions

Upton

2021

Front. Clim.

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This study investigates the institutional, social, and ecological dynamics that influence regional water governance and individual vineyard owners' decision making in global wine regions. Global wine grape production has grown steadily over the past 20 years, and climate change has emerged as a driver of transformation in wine regions resulting in a range of impacts. Changes to the climate are anticipated to accelerate in the future and present a number of challenges for wine regions; including risks to human systems, e.g., agriculture, labor, and economics, as well as ecological systems, e.g., surface and groundwater. Water is a critical resource for environmental and economic sustainability in wine regions, and vulnerability to freshwater resources in wine producing regions is expected to increase as wine regions experience climate extremes like heat and drought. We use the Institutional-Social-Ecological Dynamics (ISED) framework to help understand individual vineyard owner decision making about water management within the context of institutional, social, and ecological systems. We ask how the relationships between these systems impact outcomes for individual grape farmers adapting to climate challenges. Our empirical research uses document review and interviews with vineyard owners, planners, and natural resource managers in wine regions in Oregon, USA and Tasmania, Australia as a means to explore climate vulnerabilities and adaptation approaches. Subsequently we focus on an example vignette in each region to better understand individual decision making at the farm scale within the unique institutional, social, and ecological contexts identified in each region. Our cases highlight the finding that entrenched institutional regimes, in the context of ecological variability contribute to a social unevenness in access to water. Landowner conflict over water resources is likely to increase in the context of a hotter, drier climate in regions with wine industry growth. Individual vineyard owners have a range of attitudes and approaches to climate change planning and management; and adaptation around water is dependent on both economic resources and social values. Lessons from the individual farm scale help to inform broader implications of how institutional, social, and ecological drivers influence opportunities or barriers to the implementation of climate change adaptation practices in wine regions.

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Future effects of climate change on the suitability of wine grape production across Europe

Cited by 64 publications

References 44 publications

Future Climate Change Impacts on European Viticulture: A Review on Recent Scientific Advances

Future Climate Change Impacts on European Viticulture: A Review on Recent Scientific Advances

Climate-induced cyclical properties of regional wine production using a time-frequency approach in Douro and Minho Wine Regions

Climate Change and Water Governance: Decision Making for Individual Vineyard Owners in Global Wine Regions

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