Future European drought regimes under mitigated and un-mitigated climate change

Warren, Rachel; Yu, R; Osborn, T; Santos, S de la Nova

doi:10.1088/1755-1307/6/9/292012

Cited by 4 publications

(4 citation statements)

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“…Using multi-model regional projections under the A1B scenario from the more recent ENSEMBLES project (van der Linden and Mitchell, 2009), Heinrich and Gobiet (2012) found a significant decrease, between 1961-1990 and 2021-2050, in the 3-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI3, McKee et al, 1993) in summer over a region covering most of France. They also found a similarly significant decrease for both self-calibrated versions of the Palmer Z-Index and Palmer Drought Severity Index (Palmer, 1965;Wells and Goddard, 2004) for all seasons except winter. The length, magnitude and area of drought events identified with Palmer indices are all projected to increase, together with the frequency of SPI3 and SPI12 events, still according to Heinrich and Gobiet (2012).…”

Section: J-p Vidal Et Al: Evolution Of Spatio-temporal Drought Chamentioning

confidence: 76%

“…It would be useful to actually compare the respective or combined effects of local adaptation scenarios and global mitigation scenarios on future drought characteristics. The effects of mitigation scenarios on droughts at the European scale recently studied by Warren et al (2012) could for example be combined with effects of local-or catchment-scale French adaptation scenarios.…”

Section: Mitigation Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Evolution of spatio-temporal drought characteristics: validation, projections and effect of adaptation scenarios

Vidal

Martin

Kitova

et al. 2012

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Drought events develop in both space and time and they are therefore best described through summary joint spatio-temporal characteristics, such as mean duration, mean affected area and total magnitude. This paper addresses the issue of future projections of such characteristics of drought events over France through three main research questions: (1) Are downscaled climate projections able to simulate spatio-temporal characteristics of meteorological and agricultural droughts in France over a presentday period? (2) How such characteristics will evolve over the 21st century? (3) How to use standardized drought indices to represent theoretical adaptation scenarios? These questions are addressed using the Isba land surface model, downscaled climate projections from the ARPEGE General Circulation Model under three emissions scenarios, as well as results from a previously performed 50-yr multilevel and multiscale drought reanalysis over France. Spatio-temporal characteristics of meteorological and agricultural drought events are computed using the Standardized Precipitation Index and the Standardized Soil Wetness Index, respectively, and for time scales of 3 and 12 months. Results first show that the distributions of joint spatio-temporal characteristics of observed events are well simulated by the downscaled hydroclimate projections over a present-day period. All spatiotemporal characteristics of drought events are then found to dramatically increase over the 21st century, with stronger changes for agricultural droughts. Two theoretical adaptation scenarios are eventually built based on hypotheses of adaptation to evolving climate and hydrological normals, either retrospective or prospective. The perceived spatio-temporal characteristics of drought events derived from these theoretical adaptation scenarios show much reduced changes, but they call for more realistic scenarios at both the catchment and national scale in order to accurately assess the combined effect of local-scale adaptation and global-scale mitigation.

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Section: J-p Vidal Et Al: Evolution Of Spatio-temporal Drought Chamentioning

confidence: 76%

Section: Mitigation Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evolution of spatio-temporal drought characteristics: validation, projections and effect of adaptation scenarios

Vidal

Martin

Kitova

et al. 2012

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…This analysis includes indices that account for changes in both temperature and precipitation: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)-5 and SPI-12 (McKee et al 1993;Warren et al 2009), and four categories of Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI; Palmer 1965Palmer , 1968. SPI is a probabilistic index that measures drought based on divergences of precipitation in a given time period (e.g., one-month, one-year -the SPI-5 is a 5 month measure, SPI-12 is 12 months) and geographic area (e.g., state, watershed) from the historical median.…”

Section: Assessing the Impacts Of Climate Changes On Meteorological Amentioning

confidence: 99%

Benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation on the supply, management, and use of water resources in the United States

Strzepek

Neumann²,

Smith

et al. 2014

Climatic Change

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Climate change impacts on water resources in the United States are likely to be farreaching and substantial because the water is integral to climate, and the water sector spans many parts of the economy. This paper estimates impacts and damages from five water resource-related models addressing runoff, drought risk, economics of water supply/demand, water stress, and flooding damages. The models differ in the water system assessed, spatial scale, and unit of assessment, but together provide a quantitative and descriptive richness in characterizing water sector effects that no single model can capture. The results, driven by a consistent set of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission and climate scenarios, examine uncertainty Climatic Change from emissions, climate sensitivity, and climate model selection. While calculating the net impact of climate change on the water sector as a whole may be impractical, broad conclusions can be drawn regarding patterns of change and benefits of GHG mitigation. Four key findings emerge: 1) GHG mitigation substantially reduces hydro-climatic impacts on the water sector; 2) GHG mitigation provides substantial national economic benefits in water resources related sectors; 3) the models show a strong signal of wetting for the Eastern US and a strong signal of drying in the Southwest; and 4) unmanaged hydrologic systems impacts show strong correlation with the change in magnitude and direction of precipitation and temperature from climate models, but managed water resource systems and regional economic systems show lower correlation with changes in climate variables due to non-linearities created by water infrastructure and the socio-economic changes in non-climate driven water demand.

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“…Sheffield and Wood (2008) analysed future changes in soil moisture using eight GCMs and showed that besides an increase in the spatial extent of drought, drought frequencies are likely to increase by the end of the 21st century for the Mediterranean region. Warren et al (2009) calculated the SPI using four GCMs and concluded robust increases in drought in Europe during the 21st century. Lehner et al (2006) investigated the impact of global climate change on hydrological drought using two GCMs and found that northern and northeastern Europe are most prone to a rise in flood frequencies, while southern and southeastern Europe show significant increases in drought frequencies.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The future of dry and wet spells in Europe: a comprehensive study based on the ENSEMBLES regional climate models

Heinrich

Gobiet

2011

Intl Journal of Climatology

134

102

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Under the aspect of future climate change, it is important for decision makers to know how drought conditions might change on the regional scale in order to map out adequate adaptation and mitigation strategies. Recent RCM simulations provided by the ENSEMBLES project are used to analyse changes in dry and wet conditions in Europe by the mid of the 21st century under the A1B emission scenario. Eight RCMs are selected to capture the uncertainties of the projected changes. An empirical statistical error correction approach is applied to modelled daily mean air temperature and precipitation amount to account for RCM errors, and commonly used drought indices -the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the self calibrated Palmer Z-Index (scZI) and Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) -are calculated. Changes in the mean, in interannual variability, and in frequency, length, distance, magnitude, and area of dry and wet events are investigated. The statistical significance of the projected multi-model mean changes and the according uncertainties are analysed for nine European subregions. Furthermore, distributional changes of the dry and wet spell characteristics are assessed. Changes in the mean, and in dry and wet event characteristics show the most pronounced changes towards drier and wetter conditions in the southern-and northernmost European subregions, respectively. Here, the changes are highly significant and confident, while the projected changes are more dissonant for the other subregions. Severe changes in the extremes of event length, distance, magnitude, and area particularly arise in the southern-and northernmost European subregions. The projected changes in interannual variability are less significant and confident. However, significantly increasing interannual variability is projected in regions with pronounced changes in the mean towards wetter as well as towards drier conditions.

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Future European drought regimes under mitigated and un-mitigated climate change

Cited by 4 publications

References 0 publications

Evolution of spatio-temporal drought characteristics: validation, projections and effect of adaptation scenarios

Evolution of spatio-temporal drought characteristics: validation, projections and effect of adaptation scenarios

Benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation on the supply, management, and use of water resources in the United States

The future of dry and wet spells in Europe: a comprehensive study based on the ENSEMBLES regional climate models

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