Future LNG competition and trade using an agent-based predictive model

Meza, Abel; Arı, İbrahim; Al-Sada, Mohammed Saleh; Koç, Muammer

doi:10.1016/j.esr.2021.100734

Cited by 23 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…The trade flows created by international trade cooperation, which spatially entwine to create an ever-expanding global trade network for LNG, are undoubtedly the most comprehensible structural manifestation of the market's dynamic evolution. In this context, some studies have attempted to analyze the potential pattern and future development trend of the LNG trade market from the perspectives of industry structure, influencing factors, and trade prediction simulation, and the findings of these studies have been useful in understanding the dynamics of the LNG trade market [14][15][16].…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal Evolution and Market Dynamics of the International Liquefied Natural Gas Trade: A Multilevel Network Analysis

Hou,

Niu,

et al. 2023

Energies

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Natural gas is considered a transitional energy source in the transition to clean energy owing to its clean, efficient, and ecologically beneficial properties. The trade of liquefied natural gas (LNG) serves as the backbone of the global natural gas trade and significantly influences the dynamics of the global energy trade system. This paper constructs long-term global LNG trade networks, and explores the spatiotemporal evolution and topological structures of the international LNG trade by utilizing multilevel network analysis methods, to provide insights for comprehensively understanding the market dynamics of the global LNG trade system. The findings indicate the following: (1) The global LNG trade volume shows an overall upward trend, and the global LNG trade network exhibits uneven spatial distribution, clear hierarchical differentiation, and an increasingly complicated structure. Global LNG trade is gradually changing from regionalization to globalization, and the international LNG market is undergoing structural reshaping. (2) The global LNG trade network continues to expand in size and density, and the rapidly growing LNG supply and trade relations are driving the formation of the global natural gas market. (3) Global LNG trade is still in a phase of rapid change, with the global efficiency of the network increasing and then decreasing. The trade network has traditionally been centered on ten countries, including Japan, South Korea, the United States, and Qatar. (4) The global LNG trade network exhibits clear core-periphery structures with considerable polarization effects, and the trade network structure is continuously evolving and is growing unbalanced. Finally, we put forward relevant policy suggestions to promote global LNG trade interconnectivity and enhance environmental protection and respond to global climate change.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal Evolution and Market Dynamics of the International Liquefied Natural Gas Trade: A Multilevel Network Analysis

Hou,

Niu,

et al. 2023

Energies

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“…), even increasing slightly more than 8.3% per year. Meza et al [43] are more conservative in their estimate and predict that annual growth will slow down to a value between 3 and 4% (following a 10-year prediction line).…”

Section: Volume Of Lng Tradementioning

confidence: 99%

LNG Market and Fleet Analysis

et al. 2021

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This paper is part of larger research on the impact of present and future air emissions from the shipping industry and especially the environmental impact of the rapid spreading of the LNG as a fuel in the industry. Therefore, it was important to gather data related to the LNG market and perform an analysis to gain realistic insight into the market behaviour. This paper analyses the situation and trends of the LNG shipping market over a longer period to predict future developments. Data analysis of the several aspects and patterns of the trade has been performed; the results obtained can enable prediction of the market situation for the future. From the data analysis and predictions of the LNG market, continuous growth in the following years is expected, which linked to an increase of the LNG fleet and number of importing countries. Research has shown that new propulsion alternatives such as MEGI and XDF are appearing on the market as the first choice for new builds, while steam turbines are slowly disappearing. Although market growth is projected from all research parameters, the situation has changed due to the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on the market. Consequently, growth forecasts will not be realized in 2020.

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“…For producing companies, early market assessments facilitate deciding and planning production capacities, selling portfolios, and delivery plans [ [25] , [26] , [27] ]. The uncertainties associated with energy markets and the increased competition motivated researchers to investigate and assess optimal LNG export strategies [ [28] , [29] , [30] ]. In the literature, most of the natural gas export portfolio management studies focused on assessing the diversification of existing portfolios using different metrics, including the Herfindahl-Hirschmann index and Shannon-Wiener concentration index [ 24 , 29 , [31] , [32] , [33] ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Energy markets restructure beyond 2022 and its implications on Qatar LNG sales strategy: Business forecasting and trend analysis

Yusuf,

Govindan,

Al-Ansari

2024

Heliyon

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Future LNG competition and trade using an agent-based predictive model

Cited by 23 publications

References 16 publications

Spatiotemporal Evolution and Market Dynamics of the International Liquefied Natural Gas Trade: A Multilevel Network Analysis

Spatiotemporal Evolution and Market Dynamics of the International Liquefied Natural Gas Trade: A Multilevel Network Analysis

LNG Market and Fleet Analysis

Energy markets restructure beyond 2022 and its implications on Qatar LNG sales strategy: Business forecasting and trend analysis

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