Future Nuisance Flooding in Norfolk, VA, From Astronomical Tides and Annual to Decadal Internal Climate Variability

Burgos, A.; Hamlington, B. D.; Thompson, P. R.; Ray, Richard D.

doi:10.1029/2018gl079572

Cited by 33 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…Previous studies have reported on vulnerable sites for coastal subsidence and short-term sea level rise, including Hampton Roads, Virginia [14], New York City [15], Taiwan [16], and North Carolina [17]. Hence, the estimation and correction of the local ground motion at and around the tide gauges is important to minimize uncertainties in the local and global sea level changes observed [18][19][20][21][22][23]. In recent decades, long-term glacial adjustments were quantified using historical variations and climate models for the reconstruction of sea level records [24,25].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sinking Tide Gauge Revealed by Space-borne InSAR: Implications for Sea Level Acceleration at Pohang, South Korea

et al. 2019

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Vertical land motion at tide gauges influences sea level rise acceleration; this must be addressed for interpreting reliable sea level projections. In recent years, tide gauge records for the Eastern coast of Korea have revealed rapid increases in sea level rise compared with the global mean. Pohang Tide Gauge Station has shown a +3.1 cm/year sea level rise since 2013. This study aims to estimate the vertical land motion that influences relative sea level rise observations at Pohang by applying a multi-track Persistent Scatter Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (PS-InSAR) time-series analysis to Sentinel-1 SAR data acquired during 2015–2017. The results, which were obtained at a high spatial resolution (10 m), indicate vertical ground motion of −2.55 cm/year at the Pohang Tide Gauge Station; this was validated by data from a collocated global positioning system (GPS) station. The subtraction of InSAR-derived subsidence rates from sea level rise at the Pohang Tide Gauge Station is 6 mm/year; thus, vertical land motion significantly dominates the sea level acceleration. Natural hazards related to the sea level rise are primarily assessed by relative sea level changes obtained from tide gauges; therefore, tide gauge records should be reviewed for rapid vertical land motion along the vulnerable coastal areas.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sinking Tide Gauge Revealed by Space-borne InSAR: Implications for Sea Level Acceleration at Pohang, South Korea

et al. 2019

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“…In addition, understanding the drivers of the short-term swings that occur about the long-term trend would aid in planning efforts as high-tide flooding at the coast continues to increase (e.g., ref. 17).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Origin of interannual variability in global mean sea level

Hamlington

Piecuch

Reager

et al. 2020

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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The two dominant drivers of the global mean sea level (GMSL) variability at interannual timescales are steric changes due to changes in ocean heat content and barystatic changes due to the exchange of water mass between land and ocean. With Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites and Argo profiling floats, it has been possible to measure the relative steric and barystatic contributions to GMSL since 2004. While efforts to “close the GMSL budget” with satellite altimetry and other observing systems have been largely successful with regards to trends, the short time period covered by these records prohibits a full understanding of the drivers of interannual to decadal variability in GMSL. One particular area of focus is the link between variations in the El Niño−Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and GMSL. Recent literature disagrees on the relative importance of steric and barystatic contributions to interannual to decadal variability in GMSL. Here, we use a multivariate data analysis technique to estimate variability in barystatic and steric contributions to GMSL back to 1982. These independent estimates explain most of the observed interannual variability in satellite altimeter-measured GMSL. Both processes, which are highly correlated with ENSO variations, contribute about equally to observed interannual GMSL variability. A theoretical scaling analysis corroborates the observational results. The improved understanding of the origins of interannual variability in GMSL has important implications for our understanding of long-term trends in sea level, the hydrological cycle, and the planet’s radiation imbalance.

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“…However, projections of mean sea level rise on multidecadal and longer time scales (Kopp et al 2014(Kopp et al , 2017 alone are insufficient to anticipate future coastal flood risk. Also important are sea level fluctuations at decadal and shorter periods, which can superimpose on longer-term changes, temporarily ameliorating or exacerbating coastal risk (Burgos et al 2018;Dangendorf et al 2016;Long et al 2020;Ray and Foster 2016;Sweet et al 2017). This motivates a detailed investigation of mean sea level variation in the Persian Gulf on decadal and shorter time scales-what are the dominant magnitudes, scales, and mechanisms?…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Intraseasonal Sea Level Variability in the Persian Gulf

Piecuch

Fukumori

Ponte

2021

Journal of Physical Oceanography

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Satellite observations are used to establish the dominant magnitudes, scales, and mechanisms of intraseasonal variability in ocean dynamic sea level () in the Persian Gulf over 2002–2015. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis applied to altimetry data reveals a basin-wide, single-signed intraseasonal fluctuation that contributes importantly to variance in the Persian Gulf at monthly to decadal timescales. An EOF analysis of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) observations over the same period returns a similar large-scale mode of intraseasonal variability, suggesting that the basin-wide intraseasonal variation has a predominantly barotropic nature. A linear barotropic theory is developed to interpret the data. The theory represents Persian-Gulf-average () in terms of local freshwater flux, barometric pressure, and wind stress forcing, as well as at the boundary in the Gulf of Oman. The theory is tested using a multiple linear regression with these freshwater flux, barometric pressure, wind stress, and boundary quantities as input, and as output. The regression explains 70%±79% (95% confidence interval) of the intraseasonal variance. Numerical values of regression coefficients computed empirically from the data are consistent with theoretical expectations from first principles. Results point to a substantial non-isostatic response to surface loading. The Gulf of Oman boundary condition shows lagged correlation with upstream along the Indian Subcontinent, Maritime Continent, and equatorial Indian Ocean, suggesting a large-scale Indian-Ocean influence on intraseasonal variation mediated by coastal and equatorial waves, and hinting at potential predictability. This study highlights the value of GRACE for understanding sea level in an understudied marginal sea.

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Future Nuisance Flooding in Norfolk, VA, From Astronomical Tides and Annual to Decadal Internal Climate Variability

Cited by 33 publications

References 28 publications

Sinking Tide Gauge Revealed by Space-borne InSAR: Implications for Sea Level Acceleration at Pohang, South Korea

Sinking Tide Gauge Revealed by Space-borne InSAR: Implications for Sea Level Acceleration at Pohang, South Korea

Origin of interannual variability in global mean sea level

Intraseasonal Sea Level Variability in the Persian Gulf

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