Abstract. This paper presents the ECCO v4 non-linear inverse modeling framework and its baseline solution for the evolving ocean state over the period 1992–2011. Both components are publicly available and subjected to regular, automated regression tests. The modeling framework includes sets of global conformal grids, a global model setup, implementations of data constraints and control parameters, an interface to algorithmic differentiation, as well as a grid-independent, fully capable Matlab toolbox. The baseline ECCO v4 solution is a dynamically consistent ocean state estimate without unidentified sources of heat and buoyancy, which any interested user will be able to reproduce accurately. The solution is an acceptable fit to most data and has been found to be physically plausible in many respects, as documented here and in related publications. Users are being provided with capabilities to assess model–data misfits for themselves. The synergy between modeling and data synthesis is asserted through the joint presentation of the modeling framework and the state estimate. In particular, the inverse estimate of parameterized physics was instrumental in improving the fit to the observed hydrography, and becomes an integral part of the ocean model setup available for general use. More generally, a first assessment of the relative importance of external, parametric and structural model errors is presented. Parametric and external model uncertainties appear to be of comparable importance and dominate over structural model uncertainty. The results generally underline the importance of including turbulent transport parameters in the inverse problem.
Changes in sea level lead to some of the most severe impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Consequently, they are a subject of great interest in both scientific research and public policy. This paper defines concepts and terminology associated with sea level and sea-level changes in order to facilitate progress in sea-level science, in which communication is sometimes hindered by inconsistent and unclear language. We identify key terms and clarify their physical and mathematical meanings, make links between concepts and across disciplines, draw distinctions where there is ambiguity, and propose new terminology where it is lacking or where existing terminology is confusing. We include formulae and diagrams to support the definitions.
Abstract. This paper presents the ECCO v4 non-linear inverse modeling framework and its baseline solution for the evolving ocean state over the period 1992–2011. Both components are publicly available and highly integrated with the MITgcm. They are both subjected to regular, automated regression tests. The modeling framework includes sets of global conformal grids, a global model setup, implementations of model-data constraints and adjustable control parameters, an interface to algorithmic differentiation, as well as a grid-independent, fully capable Matlab toolbox. The reference ECCO v4 solution is a dynamically consistent ocean state estimate (ECCO-Production, release 1) without un-identified sources of heat and buoyancy, which any interested user will be able to reproduce accurately. The solution is an acceptable fit to most data and has been found physically plausible in many respects, as documented here and in related publications. Users are being provided with capabilities to assess model-data misfits for themselves. The synergy between modeling and data synthesis is asserted through the joint presentation of the modeling framework and the state estimate. In particular, the inverse estimate of parameterized physics was instrumental in improving the fit to the observed hydrography, and becomes an integral part of the ocean model setup available for general use. More generally, a first assessment of the relative importance of external, parametric and structural model errors is presented. Parametric and external model uncertainties appear to be of comparable importance and dominate over structural model uncertainty. The results generally underline the importance of including turbulent transport parameters in the inverse problem.
Regional sea level changes can deviate substantially from those of the global mean, can vary on a broad range of timescales, and in some regions can even lead to a reversal of long-term global mean sea level trends. The underlying causes are associated with dynamic variations in the ocean circulation as part of climate modes of variability and with an isostatic adjustment of Earth's crust to past and ongoing changes in polar ice masses and continental water storage. Relative to the coastline, sea level is also affected by processes such as earthquakes and anthropogenically induced subsidence. Present-day regional sea level changes appear to be caused primarily by natural climate variability. However, the imprint of anthropogenic effects on regional sea level-whether due to changes in the atmospheric forcing or to mass variations in the system-will grow with time as climate change progresses, and toward the end of the twenty-first century, regional sea level patterns will be a superposition of climate variability modes and natural and anthropogenically induced static sea level patterns. Attribution and predictions of ongoing and future sea level changes require an expanded and sustained climate observing system.
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