Future orientation and planning in forestry: a comparison of forest managers’ planning horizons in Germany and the Netherlands

Abstract

Long range (or strategic) planning is an important tool for forest management to deal with the complex and unpredictable future. However, it is the ability to make meaningful predictions about the rapidly changing future that is questioned. What appears to be particularly neglected is the question of the length of time horizons and the limits (if any) to these horizons, despite being considered one of the most critical factors in strategic planning. As the future creation of values lies within individual responsibility, this research empirically explored the limits (if any) of individual foresters' time horizons. To draw comparisons between countries with diVerent traditions in forest management planning, data were collected through telephone surveys of forest managers in the state/national forest services of the Netherlands and Germany. In order to minimize other cultural diVerences, the research in Germany concentrated on the federal state of Nordrhein-Westfalen, which has considerable similarities with the Netherlands, e.g. in topography, forest types and forest functions. The results show that, in practice, 15 years appears to be the most distant horizon that foresters can identify with. This is in sharp contrast to the time horizons spanning decades and even generations that are always said to exist in forestry. The "doctrine of the long run"-the faith in the capacity of foresters to overcome the barriers of the uncertain future and look ahead and plan for long-range goals-which in many countries still underlies traditional forest management, can therefore be rejected.

New climate change information modifies frames and decisions of decision makers: an exploratory study in forest planning

“…Also, our investigation of expiry dates for forestry actions might go beyond planners' perception of time. For example, study of Dutch and German forest managers found that foresters think mainly within a 15-year time horizon (Hoogstra and Schanz 2009). With respect to climate change information, we explored the influence of new information on the decisions of planners about forestry actions.…”

Forest Management Approaches for Coping with the Uncertainty of Climate Change: Trade-Offs in Service Provisioning and Adaptability

“…Furthermore most foresters-like many other professional groups -are concerned about a 10 to 15-year planning horizon (Hoogstra and Schanz 2009). Most of them perceive this period to be realistic because they need to link long forest production periods to production processes and market mechanisms of other important market actors by dividing long-term periods.…”

Visualizing Stakeholder Perspectives for Reflection and Dialogue on Scale Dynamics in Social–Ecological Systems

“…However, ideas about the role of societal perspectives on space and time have also long been part of environmental change research-the Limits to Growth report by Meadows et al (1972) posited that humans have a limited interest in and capacity for action when considering a geographic extent beyond their local communities and over long time periods. Participants in research by Boniecki (1980), Hoogstra andSchanz (2009), andSimons et al (2004) showed a lack of engagement with events on a temporal extent beyond 10-15 years. In contrast to this spatial and temporal "myopia," a "hyperopia" has been found linked to both scales in terms of problem recognition (Gifford et al, 2009;Uzzell, 2000): the longer term future was seen as more problematic than the shorter term by participants in these studies, and global concerns were seen as more problematic than local issues.…”