Future projections in the climatology of global low-level jets from CORDEX-CORE simulations

Torres‐Alavez, José Abraham; Das, Someshwar; Corrales-Suastegui, Arturo; Coppola, Erika; Raffaele, Francesca; Bukovsky, Melissa; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Salinas, José Antonio; Sines, Taleena

doi:10.1007/s00382-021-05671-6

Cited by 26 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 77 publications

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“…This have implications for impacts and the attribution and modulation of the precipitation by the ARs in the present and future due to the expected changes on their latitude distribution and in the intensity and number of events (Gao et al, 2015;Ramos et al, 2016b;Shields & Kiehl, 2016), but also with the diverse associated meteorological systems such as cyclones, low-level jets, or monsoonal circulation (Jayasankar et al, 2021;Pepler & Dowdy, 2021;Torres-Alavez et al, 2021;Zhou et al, 2020).…”

Section: Ars a Phenomenological Definitionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Atmospheric river, a term encompassing different meteorological patterns

et al. 2021

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The study of atmospheric rivers (ARs) and their impacts on extreme precipitation are currently of great research interest in view of their clear socioeconomical implications. However, studies of this type generally contain caveats. The first of these is of a meteorological nature, and is concerned with the diversity of the different meteorological patterns that can be associated in the phenomenological definition, in that there is no guarantee that all so‐called ARs follow the same one. The second concern involves the initial definition of an AR, which implicitly assumes the subtropical origin of the atmospheric moisture that feeds it. To date, it has been observed that in many cases of ARs, most of the moisture originates in regions at higher latitudes. The aim of this article is to open a debate on these two aspects by using well‐known examples of ARs which fit different meteorological patterns, and showing a climatology of the moisture sources that feed ARs. This article is categorized under: Science of Water > Hydrological Processes Science of Water > Water Extremes

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Section: Ars a Phenomenological Definitionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Atmospheric river, a term encompassing different meteorological patterns

et al. 2021

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“…The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Regional Climate Model (RegCM4, v4.7.0) is a hydrostatic, compressible, and 3-dimensional model. It runs on the Arakawa B-grid for the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), Central America and Mexico (CAM) domain (Figure 1) at 25 km spatial resolution [16][17][18][19][20]. The CORDEX-CAM domain covers completely Mexico (Figure 1a).…”

Section: Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The CORDEX-CAM domain covers completely Mexico (Figure 1a). The RegCM4 model has been used in many climate studies over CAM domain (e.g., [19,[21][22][23]).…”

Section: Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Following the IPCC recommendation for AR6, and similar to [12,19,20], we defined the 1995-2014 period as the reference for "present-day conditions" and the 2041-2060 and 2080-2099 periods for "near-and far-future conditions," respectively. For the reference period, we analyzed a simulation (M0) driven by ERA-Interim [24] Simulations M1, M2, and M3 were performed for the reference, near, and far future periods under two RCPs: (i) the lowest radiative forcing level scenario, RCP2.6, which is a peak-and-decline scenario; its radiative forcing level first reaches a value of around 3.1 W/m 2 by mid-century and returns to 2.6 W/m 2 by 2100.…”

Section: Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The RCP2.6 and the RCP8.5 were chosen in the CORDEX-CORE protocol because they cover the full IPCC range. Especially, the RCP2.6 produces mean global warming of about 2 • C compared to preindustrial temperatures and can be considered representative of conditions under the target of the 2015 Paris agreement [19]. We did not make a bias correction.…”

Section: Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Analysis of Cooling and Heating Degree Days over Mexico in Present and Future Climate

et al. 2021

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One simple way to estimate the relationship between air temperature and the energy needed for heating and cooling is to use the concept of degree day. Cooling degree days (CDD) and heating degree days (HDD) are indicators of the energy required to reach comfort levels and are related directly to energy demands. Therefore, using a novel approach, we examine the current conditions and future projections in degree days over Mexico using observations (Livneh and CPC), ERA5 reanalysis, and simulations from the Regional Climate Model (RegCM4). The RegCM4 experiments were driven by different General Circulation Models for two Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios. We consider three 20-year periods as “present conditions” (1995–2014), “near-future conditions” (2041–2060), and “far-future conditions” (2080–2099). The results suggest that in the future, under the lowest radiative forcing scenario there will be a smaller increase (decrease) in CDD (HDD) for the far-future, as compared to the near-future. This could represent the model’s response to the peak of radiative forcing at mid-century and its subsequent decline. For the highest radiative forcing scenario, we found a greater increase (decrease) in CDD (HDD) for the far-future, which could be explained by the response of the RegCM4 to the warming increase projected for 2100.

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Caribbean Low‐Level Jet future projections using a multiparameter ensemble of RegCM4 configurations

Vichot‐Llano

Martinez‐Castro

Bezanilla‐Morlot

et al. 2021

Intl Journal of Climatology

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A multiparameter ensemble generated by four configurations of the regional model RegCM4 using different cumulus parameterizations and driven by the HadGEM2‐ES global model is used to project changes in the Caribbean wind field, with the focus on the Caribbean Low‐Level Jet (CLLJ). Two scenarios are considered, the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The CLLJ shows a strengthening (weakening) during the summer (winter) months compared to present day conditions in both a near future (2020–2049) and far future (2070–2099) time slice, with an eastward and northward expansion (contraction) in the core region. The warmer conditions produce an increase in specific humidity and an intensified moisture flux from the lower to the middle atmosphere in correspondence of the jet intensification. This occurs as a result of an expansion (contraction) of the North Atlantic Subtropical High of about +2 hPa (−2 hPa) into the Caribbean. All the changes are statistically significant at the 95% confidence level with a consensus across all the ensemble members.

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Future projections in the climatology of global low-level jets from CORDEX-CORE simulations

Cited by 26 publications

References 77 publications

Atmospheric river, a term encompassing different meteorological patterns

Atmospheric river, a term encompassing different meteorological patterns

Analysis of Cooling and Heating Degree Days over Mexico in Present and Future Climate

Caribbean Low‐Level Jet future projections using a multiparameter ensemble of RegCM4 configurations

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