Future projections of active-break spells of Indian summer monsoon in a climate change perspective

Sudeepkumar, B.L.; Babu, C. A.; Varikoden, Hamza

doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2017.12.020

Cited by 22 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…The ensemble of COSMO and RegCM4 experiments reflect an increase in the active days at FF with respect to the present time. A similar projected increase in the short active spells using CMIP5 model experiments over India during FF has been reported (Sudeepkumar et al ., 2018; Sharmila et al ., 2015). This suggests that despite the consistent dry (wet) biases in the daily mean ISM precipitation in RegCM4 experiments, the distribution of precipitation within the season is better captured during the present climate.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Following the pattern of active spells, the breaks spell also declines in the NF (29) and FF (22). However, the CMIP5 model experiments illustrated a nonsignificant increase in the break spells and its length in FF over Indian regions (Sudeepkumar et al ., 2018; Sharmila et al ., 2015). In addition, there are considerable inter‐model differences in the changes in rainfall anomalies during the active spells of ISM under future warming (Figure S1).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The overall distribution of ECAR95P shows a drastic increase from the present time to NF and FF under the global warming scenario. The increase of heavy rainfall events under the higher warming scenario has been reported earlier (Sharmila et al ., 2015; Rai et al ., 2019, 2020; Sudeepkumar et al ., 2018); which may increase the future flood events over India.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, the projected increase in CDDS over rain scarce western India can be attributed to the splitting of prolonged CDDS into smaller ones due to the projected increase in the rainfall. The projected CWD and CWDS increase from present to NF and then declines in FF. The very heavy rainfall and its contribution (ECAR95P and ECAR95PTOT) consistently increase from the present to NF and FF under RCP8.5, with a larger increase over the western Himalayas; which has also been reported earlier over the Indian region (Rai et al ., 2019; Sharmila et al ., 2015; Sudeepkumar et al ., 2018). This may result in an increase in flood events in the future.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Present and future changes in precipitation characteristics during Indian summer monsoon in CORDEX‐CORE simulations

Maharana

Kumar

Das

et al. 2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

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This work examines the changes in precipitation characteristics over the Indian region using the latest high‐resolution CORDEX‐CORE model simulations. Individual RCM (COSMO, RegCM4.7, and REMO) experiments, their ensembles, and all RCM ensembles are examined to evaluate their performance using various statistical metrics. It aims to provide a holistic idea for choosing better models for specific analysis (variability, climatology, temporal evolution, indices, etc.) of precipitation distribution over India. The COSMO model experiments show lesser mean bias and have a high correlation coefficient (>0.8) compared to REMO and RegCM4. Each RCM ensemble performs better than its members in representing the spatial patterns of precipitation. Interestingly, the RCM experiments downscaling the forcings from MPI_ESM GCMs and ERA‐Interim outperforms other RCM experiments in the present day period. The probability distribution function reflects that the mean frequency and the intensity of precipitation are best represented in the RegCM4 ensemble. Further, most RCMs agree to a robust increase in low‐intensity rainfall (>0.1–4 mm⋅day‑1) in the future under the RCP8.5 scenario. The intraseasonal variability in terms of active and break spells are best represented in the RegCM4 ensemble. There exists uncertainty in terms of projection of active phases, while all model experiments agree to the decrease in the break phases in the near future compared to the present day. The projected consecutive dry (wet) days and their spells will decrease (increase) over India. The heavy precipitation events are expected to increase (by 18–32 days) along with its contribution (by 14–48%) towards the total precipitation over entire India indicating a possible increase in flooding events in the future. The present‐day ISM characteristics is well captured in the model ensemble compared to individual experiments. The model ensemble indicates towards a robust increase in low‐intensity rainfall in the future. The very heavy precipitation events and its contribution towards total precipitation are increasing in the future.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Present and future changes in precipitation characteristics during Indian summer monsoon in CORDEX‐CORE simulations

Maharana

Kumar

Das

et al. 2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…CMIP5 was released in preparation for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR5) and provides a range of simulated future climate models for exploring climate change impacts and making policies relevant to society (Das & Umamahesh, 2016;Serur & Sarma, 2017;Sudeepkumar, Babu, & Varikoden, 2018). Climate models in CMIP5 are from different agencies and organizations across the globe; therefore, it is necessary to identify the models that effectively capture the circulation features over the study area.…”

Section: Future Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic changes in soil erosion risk and its driving mechanism: A case study in the Loess Plateau of China

Xin-shi

Song

et al. 2020

European J Soil Science

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The Loess Plateau has long been considered as a very fragile area that suffers from serious water erosion. With the onset of global climate fluctuations and regional implementation of soil and water conservation measures, it is of great significance to effectively reveal the variations in soil erosion risk and its driving mechanism on the Loess Plateau. Taking the Yanwachuan watershed as a case study and using rainfall, soil, digital elevation model (DEM) and land‐use data, this study applied the Revised Universal Soil loss Equation (RUSLE) model with geographic information system (GIS) technology to analyse the temporal and spatial variations of soil erosion risk and to evaluate the effects of land‐use change and climate change on soil erosion from 1981 to 2016. Future soil erosion risk was also assessed under different land‐use and climate‐change scenarios. Results showed that annual soil loss in the Yanwachuan watershed presented a significant decreasing trend with a rate of 47.928 t km−2 a−1 and that average annual soil loss was 3,543.7 t km−2 from 1981 to 2016. However, some areas, even with good vegetation cover, still had a rather high soil erosion risk (exceeding the severe erosion rate of 5,000 t km−2 in 2000–2016) if located in hilly and gully slope regions. Land‐use change and climate variation contributed 37.2% and 62.8%, respectively, to reducing soil erosion, showing that climate variation played a leading role in current soil‐erosion reduction. In addition, the average soil losses in the 2020s, 2030s and 2040s under different scenarios are predicted to increase by 8.6–42.6% compared with the average soil loss (2,993.8 t km−2) in 2001–2016. Future climate change may be the main driving factor in enhancing the risk of soil erosion. Hence, there is an urgent need to strengthen soil and water conservation research and management in future years.Highlights This study assessed current and future water erosion risk on the Loess Plateau using the RUSLE model. Areas with steep slopes were still experiencing serious soil erosion risk in 2000–2016. Climate change was the main driving factor for soil erosion variation. Future erosion risk is expected to increase under different climate and land‐use scenarios.

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Koppen–Trewartha climate classification as a diagnostic tool to identify pronounced changes in the projected climate by the General Circulation Models over India

Bindhu

Smitha

Narasimhan

et al. 2021

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Earth's changing climate will pose a major threat to terrestrial ecosystems in their present state of equilibrium that support human habitats. Understanding the underlying aspects of climate change that influence ecosystems is crucial to devise adaptation strategies and conservation efforts. To this end, climate classification schemes can be employed as an effective means for both validation of climate models and identify areas that may experience a pronounced shift in climate in the future. In this context, the current study focuses on the impact of climate change on shift in climatic regimes over the Indian subcontinent for the mid and late 21st century with respect to the reference period . Koppen-Trewartha climate (KTC) classification was applied to climate projections resulting from four downscaled General Circulation Models from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Climate Projections, under two RCPs (4.5 and 8.5) along with global Climate Research Unit TS-3.23 dataset which is treated as observed. Analysis of the future 21st century climate projections revealed noticeable shifts in climate types, of which expansion of arid and savannah class is the most prominent. Results indicate that the sub-continental scale analysis done at a grid cell-by-grid cell basis was able to locate potentially static and dynamic climate regions across the country with projected shifts from warmer/wetter to drier climate regime. This in turn is expected to pose serious threat to various sectors, especially agriculture, owing to its heavy dependence on water resources. The observations from the study provide information on the magnitude and pattern of change in climate types across the country and thus can serve as prospective reference to develop adequate and effective climate adaptation strategies.

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Future projections of active-break spells of Indian summer monsoon in a climate change perspective

Cited by 22 publications

References 45 publications

Present and future changes in precipitation characteristics during Indian summer monsoon in CORDEX‐CORE simulations

Present and future changes in precipitation characteristics during Indian summer monsoon in CORDEX‐CORE simulations

Dynamic changes in soil erosion risk and its driving mechanism: A case study in the Loess Plateau of China

Koppen–Trewartha climate classification as a diagnostic tool to identify pronounced changes in the projected climate by the General Circulation Models over India

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