Future projections of wind patterns in California with the variable-resolution CESM: a clustering analysis approach

Wang, Meina; Ullrich, P. A.; Millstein, Dev

doi:10.1007/s00382-020-05125-5

Cited by 19 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 54 publications

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“…The dominant patterns that drive winds across Mexico have not previously been explored, whereas these are commonly used in meteorological forecasting in other regions of the (e.g., Bloomfield et al, 2018;Wang et al, 2020). The literature relating to the drivers of weather in the region was summarized by Maldonado et al (2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Drivers of extreme wind events in Mexico for windpower applications

Thomas

Martínez‐Alvarado

Drew

et al. 2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

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In this study, we use a k-mean clustering approach to investigate the weather patterns responsible for extreme wind speed events throughout Mexico using 40 years of the ERA-5 atmospheric reanalysis. Generally, we find a large geographical split between the weather patterns that generate the strongest winds across the country. The highest wind power production periods therefore occur at different times in different regions across the country. In the South, these are associated with cold surge events, where an anticyclone is present in the Gulf of Mexico resulting in a strong Northerly flow across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. In the NorthEast , Easterly trade winds are responsible for the strongest wind events, whereas in the NorthWest , it is the proximity of the North Pacific High. However, the weakest winds and lowest power production periods occur at the same times for all stations with the exception of Baja California Sur, meaning that low wind power production may be unavoidable at these times. The El Niño Southern Oscillation is found to influence wind speeds at some locations across Mexico at sub-seasonal timescales. We report that statistically stronger wind speeds are observed during the Summer during El Niño months than during La Niña months for both sites in Chiapas and Oaxaca.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Drivers of extreme wind events in Mexico for windpower applications

Thomas

Martínez‐Alvarado

Drew

et al. 2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…We apply EOF combined with the k‐means clustering method to classify WRs in this study. Recently, other classification methods have been proposed, such as support vector regression (Saavedra‐Moreno et al., 2015) and agglomerative clustering algorithms (M. Wang et al., 2020), and studies have demonstrated that both attain a good performance (Saavedra‐Moreno et al., 2015). This study implements one of the main methods, which would be better validated by other methods in the future.…”

Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Synoptic to Decadal Variability in the Winter Surface Wind Speed Over China by the Weather Regime View

Zhang

Wang

2021

Geophysical Research Letters

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The observed surface wind speed (SWS) has declined over the past 4 decades over China, which have has been examined from a climatological perspective. However, the SWS is highly variable and is dependent on the weather regime (WR). This study investigates the variability of winter SWS under six typical WRs and assesses the variability at the synoptic to decadal time scales. Our results reveal that the WRs impose important impacts on the spatial pattern and inter‐annual variability of SWS over China. The Siberian high pressure exerts an important influence on the WR occurrence over Eastern Asia and affects the SWS variations, with more prominent impacts at the decadal time scale. The Aleutian low pressure exhibits weak inter‐annual correlations with the SWS under all WRs but reveals closer decadal connections under certain WRs. However, WRs cannot sufficiently explain the decreasing trend of SWS from 1980 to 2017.

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“…This region of western North America (WNA) contains substantial annual mean wind and solar power resources (Jacobson and Delucchi, 2011;MacDonald et al, 2016;Pryor and Barthelmie, 2011). These resources, however, are subject to substantial seasonal and synoptic variability (Millstein et al, 2019;Rinaldi et al, 2021;Wang et al, 2018;Wang et al, 2020).…”

Section: Spatiotemporal Scale Of Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Meteorology and Climatology of Historical Weekly Wind and Solar Power Resource Droughts over western North America in ERA5

Brown

Farnham

Caldeira

2021

Preprint

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Wind and solar electricity generation is projected to expand substantially over the next several decades due both to rapid cost declines as well as regulation designed to achieve climate targets. With increasing reliance on wind and solar generation, future energy systems may be vulnerable to previously underappreciated synoptic-scale variations characterized by low wind and/or surface solar radiation. Here we use western North America as a case study region to investigate the historical meteorology of weekly-scale “droughts” in potential wind power, potential solar power and their compound occurrence. We also investigate the covariability between wind and solar droughts with potential stresses on energy demand due to temperature deviations away human comfort levels. We find that wind power drought weeks tend to occur in late summer and are characterized by a mid-level atmospheric ridge centered over British Columbia and high sea level pressure on the lee side of the Rockies. Solar power drought weeks tend to occur near winter solstice when the seasonal minimum in incoming solar radiation co-occurs with the tendency for mid-level troughs and low pressure systems over the U.S. southwest. Compound wind and solar power drought weeks consist of the aforementioned synoptic pattern associated with wind droughts occurring near winter solstice when the solar resource is at its seasonal minimum. We find that wind drought weeks are associated with high solar power (and vice versa) both seasonally and in terms of synoptic meteorology, which supports the notion that wind and solar power generation can play complementary roles in a diversified energy portfolio at synoptic spatiotemporal scales over Western North America.

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Future projections of wind patterns in California with the variable-resolution CESM: a clustering analysis approach

Cited by 19 publications

References 54 publications

Drivers of extreme wind events in Mexico for windpower applications

Drivers of extreme wind events in Mexico for windpower applications

The Synoptic to Decadal Variability in the Winter Surface Wind Speed Over China by the Weather Regime View

Meteorology and Climatology of Historical Weekly Wind and Solar Power Resource Droughts over western North America in ERA5

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