Future scenarios impact on land use change and habitat quality in Lithuania

Gomes, Eduardo; Inácio, Miguel; Bogdzevič, Katažyna; Kalinauskas, Marius; Karnauskaitė, Donalda; Pereira, Paulo

doi:10.1016/j.envres.2021.111101

Cited by 106 publications

(35 citation statements)

References 106 publications

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“…The increase in forested area is greater in comparison to the results obtained in this study; however, it is not fully comparable because the study areas are not the same [49]. Future scenarios for Lithuania, based on the study of Gomes at al., predict an increase in forested area by 2050, which may vary depending on scenario [50]. This confirms that long term changes are positive for the development of environmental services in these areas.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 62%

Land Cover Changes in Selected Areas Next to Lagoons Located on the Southern Coast of the Baltic Sea, 1984–2021

et al. 2022

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The aim of the study is the evaluation of land cover changes in selected areas next to three lagoons (the Curonian Lagoon, the Vistula Lagoon and the Szczecin Lagoon) located on the southern coast of the Baltic Sea (in Lithuania, Russia, Poland and Germany) from 1984 to 2021. The changes are evaluated using multispectral (visible light—RGB and near infrared—NIR) satellite images from the Landsat 5 and Sentinel-2 sensors. Due to their high importance for ecosystem services, two main land cover types are evaluated, i.e., forest area and inland water reservoirs. The classification of the images is performed using a random forest algorithm. Areas of water bodies and forests are evaluated for the years 1984 and 2021. During period 1984–2021, positive changes in land cover are observed in all three regions included in the study. In almost all parts, with the exception of the Polish part of the area located next to the Szczecin Lagoon, of these regions, an increase in forest area is observed. The increase ranges from 0.1% (Poland, area next to the Vistula Lagoon) to 1.2% (Germany, area next to the Szczecin Lagoon). The area of inland water reservoirs has not changed significantly in the long term. Despite the global warming, no reduction in the area of these water reservoirs is observed, even new seminatural reservoirs have been created in some parts of the study area.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 62%

Land Cover Changes in Selected Areas Next to Lagoons Located on the Southern Coast of the Baltic Sea, 1984–2021

et al. 2022

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“…The best results were identified using above ground-biomass carbon, showing that the health of the ecosystems is more related to biomass carbon than with tree cover. The lack of a better validation can be attributed to the different base data resolution and years used (Table 1) and the same issues were identified in other studies (e.g., Gomes et al 2021). Other uncertainties may arise as a consequence of future national and global policies.…”

Section: Limitations and Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 78%

“…Data with different resolutions were used, especially the resolution of future scenario climate (2.5 min) is quite different from other datasets (500/1000 m). These problems and limitations were identified in previous works (e.g., Gomes et al, 2021). This study quantified ecosystem services' sensitivity to historical climate change and inferred the possible future exposure combined with future scenario data.…”

Section: Limitations and Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 94%

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Sensitivity and future exposure of ecosystem services to climate change on the Tibetan Plateau of China

et al. 2021

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Context Climate change has imposed tremendous impacts on ecosystem services. Recent attempts to quantify such impacts mainly focused on a basin or larger scale, or used limited time periods that largely ignore observations of long-term trends at a fine resolution, thereby affecting the recognition of climate change’s effect on ecosystem services. Objectives This study conducts a detailed and spatially explicit recognition of climate change’s effect on ecosystem services and provides an intuitive map for decision-making and climate change adaptation planning. Methods We used long-term time series of ecosystem service assessments and various future climate scenarios to quantify the sensitivity and future exposure of ecosystem services to climate change on the Tibetan Plateau. Results Carbon sequestration (CS) and habitat quality experience significant growth, while water retention did not show any trend. Sensitivity patterns of these ecosystem services vary largely. For CS, more than half of the pixels showed a positive sensitivity to climate change, even though the degree of sensitivity is not high. There is substantial spatial heterogeneity in the exposure of ecosystem services to future climate changes, and high levels of future climate change increase the intensity of exposure. Conclusions This study illustrates the complex spatial association between ecosystem services and climatic drivers, and these findings can help optimize local response strategies in the context of global warming. For example, the existing protected areas have notable conservation gaps for disturbance of future climate change on ecosystem services, especially in the southeastern part of the study area. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10980-021-01320-9.

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“…This changing spatial pattern in the numbers of transactions can be interpreted as increasing spatial inequality in the city. These moving patterns from the center to the periphery areas are seen in other large and global cities [73][74][75][76][77][78]. Van Ham et al studied urban segregation and spatial inequality in 24 large urban case studies in Africa, Asia, Australia, Europe, North America, and South America.…”

Section: Validation and Comparison Of Resultsmentioning

confidence: 98%

Novel Exploratory Spatiotemporal Analysis to Identify Sociospatial Patterns at Small Areas Using Property Transaction Data in Dublin

Rabiei-Dastjerdi¹,

McArdle²

2021

Land

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The residential real estate market is very important because most people’s wealth is in this sector, and it is an indicator of the economy. Real estate market data in general and market transaction data, in particular, are inherently spatiotemporal as each transaction has a location and time. Therefore, exploratory spatiotemporal methods can extract unique locational and temporal insight from property transaction data, but this type of data are usually unavailable or not sufficiently geocoded to implement spatiotemporal methods. In this article, exploratory spatiotemporal methods, including a space-time cube, were used to analyze the residential real estate market at small area scale in the Dublin Metropolitan Area over the last decade. The spatial patterns show that some neighborhoods are experiencing change, including gentrification and recent development. The extracted spatiotemporal patterns from the data show different urban areas have had varying responses during national and global crises such as the economic crisis in 2008–2011, the Brexit decision in 2016, and the COVID-19 pandemic. The study also suggests that Dublin is experiencing intraurban displacement of residential property transactions to the west of Dublin city, and we are predicting increasing spatial inequality and segregation in the future. The findings of this innovative and exploratory data-driven approach are supported by other work in the field regarding Dublin and other international cities. The article shows that the space-time cube can be used as complementary evidence for different fields of urban studies, urban planning, urban economics, real estate valuations, intraurban analytics, and monitoring sociospatial changes at small areas, and to understand residential property transactions in cities. Moreover, the exploratory spatiotemporal analyses of data have a high potential to highlight spatial structures of the city and relevant underlying processes. The value and necessity of open access to geocoded spatiotemporal property transaction data in social research are also highlighted.

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Future scenarios impact on land use change and habitat quality in Lithuania

Cited by 106 publications

References 106 publications

Land Cover Changes in Selected Areas Next to Lagoons Located on the Southern Coast of the Baltic Sea, 1984–2021

Land Cover Changes in Selected Areas Next to Lagoons Located on the Southern Coast of the Baltic Sea, 1984–2021

Sensitivity and future exposure of ecosystem services to climate change on the Tibetan Plateau of China

Novel Exploratory Spatiotemporal Analysis to Identify Sociospatial Patterns at Small Areas Using Property Transaction Data in Dublin

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