Fuzzy boundaries: Simulation and expertise in bushfire prediction

Abstract

It is becoming apparent that changes in climatic and demographic distributions are increasing the frequency and social impact of many ‘natural hazards’, including wildfires (or ‘bushfires’ in Australia). Across many national contexts, the governmental agencies legally responsible for ‘managing’ such hazards been called upon to provide greater foresight into the potential consequences, occurrence and behaviour of these dynamic phenomena. These conditions, of growing occurrence and expectation, have given rise to new anticipatory regimes, tools, practitioners and expertise tasked with revealing near and distant fiery futures. Drawing on interviews with Fire Behaviour Analysts from across the fire-prone continent of Australia, this article examines how their expertise has emerged and become institutionalized, exploring how its embedding in bushfire management agencies reveals cultural boundaries and tensions. This article provides important insight into the human and nonhuman infrastructures enrolled in predicting and managing landscape fires, foregrounding the wider social and political implications of these infrastructures and how their ‘fuzzy boundaries’ are negotiated by practitioners. Such empirical studies of expertise in practice are also, we suggest, necessary to the continued refinement of existing critiques of expertise as an individual capacity, derived from science and serving established social orders.

An empirical-based model for predicting the forward spread rate of wildfires in eucalypt forests

“…It is believed that in an operational fire prediction scenario, trained fire behaviour analysts will be able to produce more accurate predictions than reported here. Fire behaviour prediction is both an art and a science, combining the use of models with tailored spot fire weather forecasts and the shared experience of a cadre of qualified users with knowledge of landscape factors and fire processes that are not explicit in the models (Neale and May 2020).…”

“…Models describing the forward spread rate of wildfires are an integral component of operational prediction tools aimed at forecasting their propagation over the landscape to support the release of timely and effective public warnings. Since the major events of in Australia (McLeod 2003Doogan, 2006;Teague et al 2010), when fast-spreading wildfires impacted wildland urban interface (WUI) areas without specific, detailed public warnings of impact location being issued, fire spread prediction tools (Tolhurst et al 2008, Miller et al 2015Plucinski et al 2017) and protocols (Slijepcevic et al 2008;Gibos et al 2015;Neale and May 2018) have been widely adopted in day-to-day operations of fire agencies to support decision making related to fire suppression and public safety warnings (Gibos et al 2015;Neale and May 2020;Whittaker et al 2020).…”

‘Any prediction is better than none’? A study of the perceptions of fire behaviour analysis users in Australia

“…fire spread predictions) to the general public. 1 This is based on our prior research (Neale and May 2018;Neale and May 2020) and previous studies (e.g. Rapp et al 2020) and their common findings that newer technologies and forms of expertise can be perceived by established actors as challenges to their authority.…”

“…In Australia, there has been a pronounced increase in the use and prominence of fire behaviour analysis over the past two decades, demonstrated by the swelling numbers of staff trained and employed as FBANs, increased availability of fire prediction software, aligned recommendations from official inquiries and reviews, and the increased dissemination of predictive spread maps within emergency management (Neale and May 2018;Neale and May 2020). Following the landmark 2019-2020 bushfire season in south-east Australia, state and federal inquiries have recommended further investment and training in predictive fire behaviour analysis (e.g.…”

Evidence for lack of a fuel effect on forest and shrubland fire rates of spread under elevated fire danger conditions: implications for modelling and management

“…Forecasts of fire propagation during wildfire events are required to assist decision making regarding the issuance of public warnings of an impending threat (Alexander et al 2017). They are also needed to support safe and effective tactical and strategic wildfire suppression planning so that such actions are proactive and not reactive (Plucinski 2019a(Plucinski , 2019bNeale and May 2020).…”