Fuzzy fault tree analysis of oil and gas leakage in subsea production systems

Cheliyan, A.S.; Bhattacharyya, S. K.

doi:10.1016/j.joes.2017.11.005

Cited by 93 publications

(41 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…The 'AND' gate express that the out-put event will occur if all the input events occur, while the 'OR' gate express that the output event will occur if any one of the input events occurs. Therefore, in Bow-Tie analysis total probability for each failure is calculated when the connecting gate is either AND or OR [58]. In FTA, "AND gate" operator is: (PAND =Π Pi) in which Pi (i = 1,2….n) recognizes the certain probability of the event i.…”

Section: Fuzzy Set Theorymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The aim is to determine the risk event priorities more easily using defuzzified values for the probability of occurrence, impact and total risk in the Fuzzy Bow-Tie analysis. The bigger the defuzzified value, the bigger the overall risk and the higher risk priority [58] In this study, Centre of Area (COA) is used to defuzzify TFN output. A crisp output is obtained by calculating the center of symmetry of the area delimited by aggregating the consequences of such fuzzy set.…”

Section: Framework Of the Fuzzy Bow-tie Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

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Analyzing occupational risks of pharmaceutical industry under uncertainty using a Bow-Tie analysis

Şeker¹

2019

Int. J. Optim. Control, Theor. Appl. (IJOCTA)

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Risk analysis is a systematic and widespread methodology to analyze and evaluate risks which are exposed in many working areas. One of the Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) methods for risk assessment is Bow-Tie analysis which combines features of fault-tree analysis and event-tree analysis to identify the top event; its causes and consequences (outcomes); and possible preventive and protective control measures or barriers. This study proposes an occupational risk assessment approach, which is known as Fuzzy Bow-Tie analysis, for pharmaceutical industry processes and work units. The aim is to evaluate critical risks and risky pharmaceutical work units and take safety precautions against accidents which caused by risky conditions. Thus, this methodology combines the concept of uncertainty which comes from different (Decision Maker) DM’s evaluations and the whole performance of the Bow-Tie analysis for hazard identification and risk assessment. To apply and validate the proposed method, a case study is performed for pharmaceutical industry processes and work units. Based on the computed risk score, which is calculated by multiplying probability ranking and impact ranking of criterion, the risks are prioritized and some measures are suggested for management to prevent accidents occur in the industry.

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Section: Fuzzy Set Theorymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Framework Of the Fuzzy Bow-tie Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Analyzing occupational risks of pharmaceutical industry under uncertainty using a Bow-Tie analysis

Şeker¹

2019

Int. J. Optim. Control, Theor. Appl. (IJOCTA)

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“…However, in situations where the data is insufficient to support quantitative risk assessment, then the low data-dependent failure probability determination methods can be adopted. Consequently, methods have been developed in this field, such as fuzzy mathematics, expert scoring, and fault tree analysis [19][20][21][22]. However, in terms of the evaluation of failure consequences, event tree analysis has proven to be the most effective tool [23,24].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk Assessment System for Oil and Gas Pipelines Laid in One Ditch Based on Quantitative Risk Analysis

2019

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In view of the vegetation reduction caused by the continuous construction of oil and gaspipelines, the pipelines have been designed to be laid in one ditch to reduce land occupation.However, owing to the small spacing between the pipelines, the fault correlation between pipelineshas been proven to increase the potential hazard of adjacent pipelines and routing environments.The neglect of failure correlation in existing risk assessment methods leads to inaccurate results,which will lead to errors in maintenance decisions. Therefore, this paper proposed a riskassessment system for pipelines using this laying method. In the risk assessment, pipelines laid inone ditch (PLOD) were regarded as a series system relative to the routing environment. Therefore,the functional relationship between the total risk of the pipeline system and the risk of eachpipeline was obtained by combining the engineering system reliability theory with themathematical induction method. In addition, fuzzy set theory combined with fault tree analysiswas used to calculate the failure probability of each pipeline in the system. Event tree analysis wasused to sort out all the possible consequences of pipeline failure, and then the consequences wereunified into monetary units to evaluate the severity of failure consequences. Finally, the two partswere merged into a bow-tie diagram to realize the risk management and control of the pipeline.Meanwhile, risk acceptance criteria were formulated to analyze risks and to guide pipelinemaintenance. This system provides a complete risk assessment system for the pipeline system laidin one ditch, including the methods of risk identification, risk assessment, and risk analysis, whichare of great significance to ensure the safety of the pipeline and the surrounding environment usingthis laying method.

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“…There are other FTA extensions using Petri Nets , fuzzy numbers , Markov Chains , and Neural Networks .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reliability analysis by mapping probabilistic importance factors into bayesian belief networks for making decision in water deluge system

Guetarni

Aissani

Châtelet

et al. 2018

Process Safety Progress

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Liquid petroleum gas (LPG) is one area where catastrophic release scenarios have occurred. For this reason, preventive, and protective barriers have to be installed in order to reduce the occurrence and the severity of these scenarios. This article addresses an analysis of deluge system barrier and proposes a making decision process to ensure a high level of reliability, availability, maintainability, and safety (RAMS) using a robust Reliability Analysis with conditional probabilities. To achieve this RAMS target, a methodology for converting fault tree analysis (FTA) in continuous time using Monte Carlo (MC) simulation to Bayesian belief network (BBN) is developed. The probabilistic importance factors (PIFs) for critical components ranking and decision making are also mapped using BBN inferences in Water Deluge Systems (WDS) with an optimization aim using redundancy or maintenance tasks. This analysis illustrates the helpfulness of mapping PIFs into BBN for making a decision in any critical technological infrastructures.

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Fuzzy fault tree analysis of oil and gas leakage in subsea production systems

Cited by 93 publications

References 19 publications

Analyzing occupational risks of pharmaceutical industry under uncertainty using a Bow-Tie analysis

Analyzing occupational risks of pharmaceutical industry under uncertainty using a Bow-Tie analysis

Risk Assessment System for Oil and Gas Pipelines Laid in One Ditch Based on Quantitative Risk Analysis

Reliability analysis by mapping probabilistic importance factors into bayesian belief networks for making decision in water deluge system

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