Fuzzy Real Options Valuation for Oil Investments

Uçal, Irem; Kahraman, Cengiz

doi:10.3846/1392-8619.2009.15.646-669

Cited by 20 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…Then, another investment analysis was examined by using the concept of probability of a fuzzy event. Uçal and Kahraman (2009) suggested a new real options valuation model that will evaluate the investment in a more realistic way by postponing the defuzzification of parameters in early stages. The suggested model had been applied to the data of an oil field investment and in conclusion the loss of information caused by early-defuzzification has been determined.…”

Section: E Ectiveness Experiencementioning

confidence: 99%

Fuzzy Multicriteria Evaluation of Health Research Investments

Kahraman

Suder

Kaya

2014

Technological and Economic Development of Economy

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Health research and investments are expensive, and its explicit social, health and economic impacts are hard to define. There are many challenges and assumptions in defining specific returns on investment in health research. In the literature, there is no common approach to evaluate health research impacts. Single criterion methods are generally used with validated indicators to track overall outcomes or outcomes in a specific health research area. These methods have the ability of considering only one criterion at a time, which is usually the cost of the investment. A multicriteria method is proposed for taking care of many conflicting criteria of health research investments. The difficulty of measuring intangible criteria is captured by the fuzzy set theory. Fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is used for the selection among four possible health research investment alternatives. A sensitivity analysis is made for the changes in the values of various parameters.

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Section: E Ectiveness Experiencementioning

confidence: 99%

Fuzzy Multicriteria Evaluation of Health Research Investments

Kahraman

Suder

Kaya

2014

Technological and Economic Development of Economy

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“…Hasil penelitian tersebut menunjukkan terdapat perbedaan kurang signifikan yaitu sebesar 2,04% antara FROV Black-Scholes dan FROV Trinomial. Selain itu, [11] mengaplikasikan metode fuzzy real options valuation (FROV) dengan formula Black-Scholes pada investasi proyek perminyakan. Ia juga menerapkan metode defuzzifikasi dan melakukan diskritisasi pada tingkat suku bunga.…”

Section: Pendahuluanunclassified

Implementation of Fuzzy Black-Scholes Real Options Valuation Method on Nickel Smelter Investment Plan

Jalaludin,

Rahman,

Andirasdini

2023

KUBIK

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Indonesia merupakan negara penghasil nikel terbesar di dunia pada tahun 2022 dengan menyumbang 48,48% dari total produksi nikel dunia. Oleh karena itu, pemerintah Indonesia memberikan perhatian terhadap pengembangan perusahaan smelter dengan berencana membangun sekitar 53 perusahaan di tahun 2024, dan 56,60 persennya adalah smelter nikel. Potensi smelter nikel tersebut perlu mendapatkan perhatian dari berbagai kalangan khususnya para akademisi dari berbagai disiplin ilmu. Salah satu yang perlu mendapatkan perhatian adalah kajian tentang metode evaluasi nilai ekonomis pada rencana investasi di perusahaan smelter nikel tersebut. Metode DCF meskipun praktis dan banyak digunakan, tetapi masih memiliki kekurangan, yaitu tidak memperhatikan fleksibilitas pengambilan keputusan manajer di tengah periode investasi sedang berlangsung. Sebagai solusinya, metode real options valuation (ROV) memberikan fitur fleksibilitas dalam pengambilan keputusan tersebut. Diantara metode real options yang sering dipakai adalah formula Black-Scholes yang dianggap sebagai metode real options yang paling rigid tetapi lebih praktis. Namun masalah ini bisa diatasi dengan mengimplementasikan metode bilangan fuzzy ke dalam metode ROV sehingga membuatnya menjadi lebih fleksibel. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa metode fuzzy Black-Scholes ROV merupakan metode yang praktis, dapat memperhitungkan risiko dan unsur fleksibilitas proyek, dan menjadi solusi Ketika kurang tersedianya informasi awal tentang karakteristik proyek investasi smelter nikel. Kata kunci: real options, Black-Scholes, smelter nikel, fuzzy

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“…Their objective was to invest in advanced information technologies such as RFID systems, which have high risk, and to use options such as change, postponement, expansion, and abandonment. Ucal and Kahraman (2009) applied this model for similar purposes. However, it was intended to prevent the loss of information by leaving the expected values of cash flows and costs in the model for the next stages.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Intuitionistic Fuzzy Real-Options Theory and its Application to Solar Energy Investment Projects

Ersen

Taş

Kahraman

2018

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Conventional methods used in project evaluation have a static nature, which cause decision makers to examine investment projects within a narrow scope. As an alternative, real-options theory allows decision makers to use the concepts of uncertainty and managerial flexibility, which classical methods do not deal with, in valuing investment projects. Carlsson and Fuller's fuzzy real-options theory has been a solution for situations where cash flow and cost variables used in the model cannot be expressed by using classical numbers but by using fuzzy numbers. The idea of using intuitionistic fuzzy numbers in real options theory can expand the narrow scope more effectively than the idea of using classical real-options theory, thereby providing an opportunity to evaluate investment projects from a wider perspective. In this study, intuitionistic fuzzy real-option valuation model has been developed and applied to the evaluation of solar energy investment projects. Studies have shown that solar energy investments that do not seem profitable today in Turkey can perform profitably in the future. Moreover, the historical volatility model differs from the expected valuable models, whereas the optimum investment year between the models formed by the uncertainty inductions from the expected values exhibit minimal difference.

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Fuzzy Real Options Valuation for Oil Investments

Cited by 20 publications

References 29 publications

Fuzzy Multicriteria Evaluation of Health Research Investments

Fuzzy Multicriteria Evaluation of Health Research Investments

Implementation of Fuzzy Black-Scholes Real Options Valuation Method on Nickel Smelter Investment Plan

Intuitionistic Fuzzy Real-Options Theory and its Application to Solar Energy Investment Projects

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