Game‐theoretic computing in risk analysis

Abstract

Risk analysis, comprising risk assessment and risk management stages, is one of the most popular and challenging topics of our times because security and privacy, and availability and usability culminating at the trustworthiness of cybersystems and cyber information is at stake. The precautionary need derives from the existence of defenders versus adversaries, in an everlasting Darwinian scenario dating back to early human history of warriors fighting for their sustenance to survive. Fast forwarding to today's information warfare, whether in networks or healthcare or national security, the currently dire situation necessitates more than a hand calculator to optimize (maximize gains or minimize losses) risk due to prevailing scarce economic resources. This article reviews the previous works completed on this specialized topic of game-theoretic computing, its methods and applications toward the purpose of quantitative risk assessment and cost-optimal management in many diverse disciplines including entire range of informaticsrelated topics. Additionally, this review considers certain game-theoretic topics in depth historically, and those computationally resourceful such as Neumann's two-way zero-sum pure equilibrium and optimal mixed strategy solutions versus Nash equilibria with pure and mixed strategies. Computational examples are provided to highlight the significance of game-theoretic solutions used in risk assessment and management, particularly in reference to cybersystems and information security.

Modeling and Simulation in Cyber‐Risk

“…Besides nondestructively "learning the truth" before "unexpected things happen" in the real-world sense at an incomparably cost-effective setting, the science and art of M&S crack the code for numerous challenging problems where analytical derivations or formulas prove inutile by reaching a dead end [51,52]. Besides nondestructively "learning the truth" before "unexpected things happen" in the real-world sense at an incomparably cost-effective setting, the science and art of M&S crack the code for numerous challenging problems where analytical derivations or formulas prove inutile by reaching a dead end [51,52].…”

Game‐Theoretic Computing in Cyber‐Risk

“…This is the optimal mixed strategy for the defense mechanism to minimize its expected loss while the offense mechanism maximizes its gain. There is no better game plan at equilibrium by altering CM ij in any other format; the author also experimented in vain with NE mixed strategy of probabilities [2]. See also Table 5.12 for an alternative feasible solution.…”

“…The usage of game-theoretic risk computing is steadily increasing in the world of cyberrisk informatics. It is a critical topic because security and privacy, as well as availability and usability, determine the trustworthiness of cybersystems and cyber information.The origins of game theory, which is the mathematical study of conflict situations as a science of rational conflict, are well known [2]. It was, for all intents and purposes, reborn in 1944 as an established field with the publication of a pioneering book, Theory of Games and Economic Behavior by John von Neumann and O. Morgenstern, which proposed that most economic questions could be analyzed as games and first laid out the finite twoperson zero-sum game [3].…”

“…The origins of game theory, which is the mathematical study of conflict situations as a science of rational conflict, are well known [2]. It was, for all intents and purposes, reborn in 1944 as an established field with the publication of a pioneering book, Theory of Games and Economic Behavior by John von Neumann and O. Morgenstern, which proposed that most economic questions could be analyzed as games and first laid out the finite twoperson zero-sum game [3].…”

Ecological Risk‐O‐Meter: a risk assessor and manager software tool for better decision making in ecosystems

“…This example illustrates the line of risk on the ecological risk's tree diagram of Table . Therefore, one needs to calculate for each ending limb in the general tree diagram of Figure , the RR and then sum up the RR s for the, TRR (Sahinoglu et al ., , , ). Climate change exemplifies a complex situation in which the magnitudes of vulnerability and threat are debated.…”