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AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank)2. REPORT DATE
Aug 04
REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVEREDFinal Mar 03 -Feb 04
TITLE AND SUBTITLE
MODEL IDENTIFICATION AND OPTIMIZATION FOR OPERATIONAL SIMULATION
AUTHOR(S)Douglas A. Popken and Louis A. Cox
FUNDING NUMBERSC -F30602-03-C-0167 PE -62702F PR -459S TA -MA WU -02
PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES)Systems View 9139 Roadrunner St. Highlands Ranch, CO 80129 The purpose of this research effort was to develop and test frameworks and algorithms for use in air warfare planning systems. Developing planning systems for this problem domain is particularly challenging due to their great complexity and uncertainty. The effort focused on predictive simulation models for generating potential outcomes of proposed operational plans. The planning process was organized as a hierarchy of decisions, with those at the top being broadest and longest term. The algorithms at the highest level of planning use a hill-climbing approach, wherein proposed "Blue" plans are evaluated, and the average marginal benefits of alternative force reallocations are computed. Evaluation and measurement of each proposed Blue plan is accomplished via a "Stochastic Evaluator" that draws multiple samples of potential outcomes and "Red" force levels for a given Blue force structure and a combined target composition. The evaluation metric is the net discounted value from enemy targets hit. Within the evaluator, linear programming and simulation generate optimized Red responses, assumed outcomes, and relative marginal force values. This project successfully demonstrated automated plan optimization, practical embedding of optimization algorithms into an operational planning cycle operating over a multi-period conflict, and use of hierarchical decisionmaking to decomposed planning and on-line optimization problems into computationally practical tasks.
PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER
SPONSORING / MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES)AFRL
SummaryThis research effort developed and tested frameworks and algorithms for use in air warfare planning systems. It focused on the use of simulation models as predictive tools for generating potential outcomes of proposed plans, and incorporating realistically high degrees of complexity and uncertainty into optimization of plans.In this effort, the p...