in Wiley Online Library (wileyonlinelibrary.com) The optimal design and operations of shale gas supply chains under uncertainty of estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) is addressed. A two-stage stochastic mixed-integer linear fractional programming (SMILFP) model is developed to optimize the levelized cost of energy generated from shale gas. In this model, both design and planning decisions are considered with respect to shale well drilling, shale gas production, processing, multiple end-uses, and transportation. To reduce the model size and number of scenarios, we apply a sample average approximation method to generate scenarios based on the real-world EUR data. In addition, a novel solution algorithm integrating the parametric approach and the Lshaped method is proposed for solving the resulting SMILFP problem within a reasonable computational time. The proposed model and algorithm are illustrated through a case study based on the Marcellus shale play, and a deterministic model is considered for comparison. V C 2015 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J, 61: 3739-3755, 2015 Keywords: shale gas, supply chain, estimated ultimate recovery, uncertainty, stochastic program, stochastic mixedinteger linear fractional programming
IntroductionIn recent years, the widespread application of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing has led to a "shale revolution," which further results in the U.S. transitioning from an importer to a net exporter of natural gas.1 As reported by the Annual Energy Outlook 2015 released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), 2 natural gas production is expected to grow by an average rate of 1.6% per year from 2012 to 2040, more than double the 0.8% expected annual growth rate of total consumption in the U.S. over the same period. The 56% increase in total natural gas production is mainly due to increased shale gas production, which will grow by more than 10 Trillion Standard Cubic Feet (Tscf). The percentage of the U.S. total natural gas production from shale gas is expected to increase from 40% in 2012 to 53% in 2040.Despite the optimistic forecast of shale gas production given by the EIA, a recent report by Post Carbon Institute unveils the fact that the actual future of shale gas may not be as bright as the EIA suggests.3 From a well-by-well-based calculation of shale gas production throughout the U.S., they conclude that the actual profitability of a shale well can be significantly affected by the uncertainty in the estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) and astounding decline rates of production ranging from 60 to 90% in the first 3 years. Considering the significant influence of the shale gas industry on the overall U.S. energy sector, it is essential to design and operate emerging shale gas supply chains with explicit consideration of EUR uncertainty and actual shale gas production profiles.Supply chain design and optimization under uncertainty has long been known as a challenging problem that is vital to the success of industrial concerns. 4,5 Currently, there a...