Genotypic Differences in the Temperature Responses of Tropical Crops

Mohamed, H. A.; Clark, J. A.; Ong, C. K.

doi:10.1093/jxb/39.8.1121

Cited by 50 publications

(15 citation statements)

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“…Hammer et al 1995, Bell & Wright 1998. It is at the lower end of the range for tropical annual crops (Mohamed et al 1988, Squire 1990. For air temperatures below 28°C, a higher value of T 0 would result in the same response of development to temperature change.…”

Section: Crop Response To Temperaturementioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, daily temperatures above this value may have been encountered more frequently. Therefore, as a sensitivity study, a single set of simulations (all 2 × 53 × 20 climates with one crop parameterisation) with T 0 = 36°C, near the top of the range for tropical annual crops (Squire 1990, Mohamed et al 1988, was conducted. This set of simulations provides some indication of the largest likely negative response of duration and yield to temperature increases.…”

Section: Crop Response To Temperaturementioning

confidence: 99%

“…(1) twice, once for the currently-cultivated crop with thermal time requirement θ cur , and once for the adapted crop with thermal time requirement θ a , gives (3) where is the mean seasonal temperature in the baseline climate and is the mean seasonal temperature in the doubled-CO 2 climate. This equation was applied to each individual ensemble member and repeated with 2 values of T b (8 and 11.5°C; see Mohamed et al 1988) and T 0 (28 and 36°C; see Section 2.3). The results, presented in Table 2, give mean values of θ a /θ cur in the range 1.22 to 1.29, suggesting a similar increase in thermal time requirement to the ensemble crop simulations.…”

Section: Adaptation To Mean Temperature Changementioning

confidence: 99%

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Ensemble yield simulations: crop and climate uncertainties, sensitivity to temperature and genotypic adaptation to climate change

Challinor

Wheeler²,

Hemming³

et al. 2009

Clim. Res.

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Estimates of the response of crops to climate change rarely quantify the uncertainty inherent in the simulation of both climate and crops. We present a crop simulation ensemble for a location in India, perturbing the response of both crop and climate under both baseline (12 720 simulations) and doubled-CO 2 (171 720 simulations) climates. Some simulations used parameter values representing genotypic adaptation to mean temperature change. Firstly, observed and simulated yields in the baseline climate were compared. Secondly, the response of yield to changes in mean temperature was examined and compared to that found in the literature. No consistent response to temperature change was found across studies. Thirdly, the relative contribution of uncertainty in crop and climate simulation to the total uncertainty in projected yield changes was examined. In simulations without genotypic adaptation, most of the uncertainty came from the climate model parameters.Comparison with the simulations with genotypic adaptation and with a previous study suggested that the relatively low crop parameter uncertainty derives from the observational constraints on the crop parameters used in this study. Fourthly, the simulations were used, together with an observed dataset and a simple analysis of crop cardinal temperatures and thermal time, to estimate the potential for adaptation using existing cultivars. The results suggest that the germplasm for complete adaptation of groundnut cultivation in western India to a doubled-CO 2 environment may not exist. In conjunction with analyses of germplasm and local management practices, results such as this can identify the genetic resources needed to adapt to climate change. KEY WORDS: Adaptation · Climate change impacts · Crop growth model · General circulation modelResale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisher

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Section: Crop Response To Temperaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Crop Response To Temperaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Adaptation To Mean Temperature Changementioning

confidence: 99%

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Ensemble yield simulations: crop and climate uncertainties, sensitivity to temperature and genotypic adaptation to climate change

Challinor

Wheeler²,

Hemming³

et al. 2009

Clim. Res.

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show abstract

“…Common beans were projected to be the most impacted crop for both scenarios with 60 % of area crossing the transformational threshold by the end of the century under RCP 8.5 (RCP 6.0 reaches 30 % by the same period) (Fig. 2C, F The most viable substitution crops, not only for maize but also for other crops, were primarily millets and sorghum due to their drought and heat stress tolerance 10 ( Fig. S6).…”

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confidence: 99%

Timescales of transformational climate change adaptation in sub-Saharan African agriculture

et al. 2016

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Climate change is projected to constitute a significant threat to food security, if no adaptation actions are taken 1,2 . Transformation of agricultural systems, e.g. switching crop types or moving out of agriculture, is projected to be necessary in some cases [3][4][5] .However, little attention has been paid to the timing of these transformations. Here, we develop a temporal uncertainty framework using the CMIP5 ensemble to assess when and where cultivation of key crops in Sub-Saharan African becomes unviable.We report potential transformational changes for all major crops during the 21 st century, as climates shift and areas become unsuitable. For most crops, however, transformation is limited to small pockets (<15 % of area), and only for beans, maize and banana is transformation more widespread (~30 % area for maize and banana, 60 % for beans). We envision three overlapping adaptation phases to enable projected transformational changes: an incremental adaptation phase focused on improvements to crops and management, a preparatory phase that establishes appropriate policies and enabling environments, and a transformational adaptation phase in which farmers substitute crops, explore alternative livelihoods strategies, or relocate. To best align policies with production triggers for no-regret actions, monitoring capacities to track farming systems as well as climate are needed.Agricultural activities are the main means to reduce poverty and improve food security among 850 million undernourished people 2 . Numerous studies have shown that climate change can be a significant threat to food availability and stability by reducing agricultural productivity and increasing inter-annual variations in yields 1,2,6 . Adaptation will be required if food production is to be increased in both quantity and stability in order to meet food security needs during the 21st century. A recent global meta-analysis 1 reported that decreases of ca. 5 % in crop productivity are expected for every degree of warming above historical levels, and that adapted crops yield roughly 7 % greater than non-adapted crops.Yield gains from adaptation through crop management and varietal substitution, however, are highest with moderate or low (< +3 ºC) levels of warming 1,6 , suggesting that more profound systemic and/or transformational changes may be required when and where higher levels of warming occur 5 .Transformational adaptation is defined by the IPCC 7 as a response to the effects of climate change that "changes the fundamental attributes of a system" (see Text S1 for definitions).Transformational change implies shifts in locations for production of specific crops and livestock, or shifting to farming systems new to a region or resource system 3,5 . Here, we consider one type of transformation: switching of staple crop type grown over a large geographic area of 0.3 million ha (the grid cell size of our analysis) or more. We analyze when and where major cropping systems transformations are likely to occur for important crops in Sub-Saharan A...

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“…A mean base temperature of 10°C [10,11] was used. The daily thermal time was accumulated each day from planting to harvest to arrive at the CIT.…”

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confidence: 99%

The Thermal Time Concept as a Selection Criterion for Earliness in Peanut1

Rao¹,

Nigam²,

Huda

1992

Peanut Science

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Breeding early-maturing cultivars is an important objective of many peanut breeding programs in the world. Most programs use subjective maturity determination methods in selection for earliness. This paper describes a procedure developed at ICRISAT to select early-maturing, high-yielding peanut cultivars based on thermal time accumulation by the crop. In this procedure, cultivars were harvestedwhen the crop wasexposed to a predetermined cumulative thermal time (CTT), and selections were made for high yield with acceptable levels of maturity-related traits in a no-stress environment. The predetermined CTT values used in selection for early-maturity represented a 20-day shorter crop duration than for the medium-maturing lines. Based on a 13-year meteorological record, the two predetermined CTTs, (1240 and 1470°Cd (degreedays) equate to 75-and 90-daydurations, respectively, at ICRISAT Center, Patancheru, India in the rainy season (mid June to mid

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Genotypic Differences in the Temperature Responses of Tropical Crops

Cited by 50 publications

References 4 publications

Ensemble yield simulations: crop and climate uncertainties, sensitivity to temperature and genotypic adaptation to climate change

Ensemble yield simulations: crop and climate uncertainties, sensitivity to temperature and genotypic adaptation to climate change

Timescales of transformational climate change adaptation in sub-Saharan African agriculture

The Thermal Time Concept as a Selection Criterion for Earliness in Peanut1

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