Gentiana macrophylla response to climate change and vulnerability evaluation in China

Yan, Hao; He, Junliang; Zhao, Yufei; Zhang, Lin; Zhu, Changzheng; Wu, Di

doi:10.1016/j.gecco.2020.e00948

Cited by 6 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…To predict the current and future distributions of S. ocyale , the maximum entropy modelling was used with the Maxent software version 3.4.4 [ 33 ]. Maxent performs well with presence-only information and relatively few occurrence records [ 34 , 35 ], and it is broadly used in projecting range shifts of species distribution under climate change [ 36 ]. This technique generates mathematical models that describe the relationships between the probability of predicting a species and predictor variables and translates these models into potential distribution maps, indicating the environmental suitability of S. ocyale .…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of Climatic Change on Potential Distribution of Spogostylum ocyale (Diptera: Bombyliidae) in the Middle East Using Maxent Modelling

Soliman

Al-Khalaf

El-Hawagry

2023

Insects

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Spogostylum ocyale (Wiedemann 1828) is a large robust species of bee fly (family Bombyliidae), known to be a larval ectoparasitoid as well as an important flower pollinator as an adult. This species has become extremely rare or has disappeared from many of its historic habitats due to substantial changes in floral and faunal compositions in recent years. Climate change and urbanisation, together with other anthropogenic activities, may be to blame for these changes. Distribution modelling based on environmental variables together with known occurrences is a powerful tool in analytical biology, with applications in ecology, evolution, conservation management, epidemiology and other fields. Based on climatological and topographic data, the current and future distributions of the parasitoid in the Middle East region was predicted using the maximum entropy model (Maxent). The model performance was satisfactory (AUC mean = 0.834; TSS mean = 0.606) and revealed a good potential distribution for S. ocyale featured by the selected factors. A set of seven predictors was chosen from 19 bioclimatic variables and one topographic variable. The results show that the distribution of S. ocyale is mainly affected by the maximum temperature of the warmest period (Bio5) and temperature annual range (Bio7). According to the habitat suitability map, coastal regions with warm summers and cold winters had high to medium suitability. However, future scenarios predict a progressive decline in the extent of suitable habitats with global climate warming. These findings lead to robust conservation management measures in current or future conservation planning.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of Climatic Change on Potential Distribution of Spogostylum ocyale (Diptera: Bombyliidae) in the Middle East Using Maxent Modelling

Soliman

Al-Khalaf

El-Hawagry

2023

Insects

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“…The ecological change over time was analyzed to investigate the likely influence of climate change on abyssinica suitable habitat ranges. As a result, four evaluation criteria were used to estimate current and future suitable habitat change based on ( Dai et al., 2019 ; and Yan et al., 2020 ). The criteria were as follows: (i) unsuitable habitats: the areas where current and future (2050 and 2070) remains unsuitable habitats overlap; (ii) new suitable habitats: these areas that are currently unsuitable habitats but predicted to be converted into suitable habitats by the 2050 and 2070; (iii) suitable habitats that have not changed: these areas currently predicted as suitable habitats that overlap with future (2050 and 2070) suitable habitats; (iv) vulnerable areas: the areas currently suitable habitat which is projected as unsuitable habitat by the 2050s and 2070s.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling the distribution of Oxytenanthera abyssinica (A. Richard) under changing climate: implications for future dryland ecosystem restoration

Weldemariam

Sintayehu

Arbo

et al. 2022

Heliyon

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“…In the 5th Assessment Report of the IPCC, four representative concentration pathways (RCPs), viz. RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5, were defined using the total radiative forcing value in 2,100 according to the pre-industrial values of 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 W/m 2 , respectively (Yan et al, 2020c). RCP 2.6 and RCP8.5 were selected to model the prospective potential distribution of C. pilosula under minimum and maximum emissions scenarios hypothesis.…”

Section: Screening and Processing Of The Environmental Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prediction of Potentially Suitable Distributions of Codonopsis pilosula in China Based on an Optimized MaxEnt Model

Yan

et al. 2021

Front. Ecol. Evol.

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Species distribution models are widely used in conservation biology and invasive biology. MaxEnt models are the most widely used models among the existing modeling tools. In the MaxEnt modeling process, the default parameters are used most often to build the model. However, these models tend to be overfit. Aiming at this problem, this study uses an optimized MaxEnt model to analyze the impact of past, present and future climate on the distributions of Codonopsis pilosula, an economic species, to provide a theoretical basis for its introduction and cultivation. Based on 264 distribution records and eight environmental variables, the potential distribution areas of C. pilosula in the last interglacial, middle Holocene and current periods and 2050 and 2070 were simulated. Combined with the percentage contribution, permutation importance, and jackknife test, the environmental factors affecting the suitable distribution area of this species were discussed. The results show that the parameters of the optimal model are: the regularization multiplier is 1.5, and the feature combination is LQHP (linear, quadratic, hinge, product). The main temperature factors affecting the distribution of C. pilosula are the annual mean temperature, mean diurnal range, and isothermality. The main precipitation factors are the precipitation seasonality, precipitation in the wettest quarter, and precipitation in the driest quarter, among which the annual average temperature contributes the most to the distribution area of this species. With climate warming, the suitable area of C. pilosula exhibits a northward expansion trend. It is estimated that in 2070, the suitable area of this species will expand to its maximum, reaching 2.5108 million square kilometers. The highly suitable areas of C. pilosula are mainly in Sichuan, Gansu, Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Henan Provinces. Our findings can be used to provide theoretical support related to avoiding the blind introduction of C. pilosula.

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Gentiana macrophylla response to climate change and vulnerability evaluation in China

Cited by 6 publications

References 31 publications

Effects of Climatic Change on Potential Distribution of Spogostylum ocyale (Diptera: Bombyliidae) in the Middle East Using Maxent Modelling

Effects of Climatic Change on Potential Distribution of Spogostylum ocyale (Diptera: Bombyliidae) in the Middle East Using Maxent Modelling

Modelling the distribution of Oxytenanthera abyssinica (A. Richard) under changing climate: implications for future dryland ecosystem restoration

Prediction of Potentially Suitable Distributions of Codonopsis pilosula in China Based on an Optimized MaxEnt Model

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