Geochemical and Fluid‐Related Precursors of Earthquakes

Martinelli, Giovanni; Dadomo, Andrea

doi:10.1002/9781119156949.ch12

Cited by 5 publications

(4 citation statements)

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“…Reviews of reported hydrologic precursors include Roeloffs (1988) and Hartmann and Levy (2005). Hydrogeochemical precursor reviews include Hauksson (1981), Thomas (1988), Baubron (1999), Woith (2015), and Martinelli and Dadomo (2018).…”

Section: Examplesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrologic Precursors

Wang¹,

Manga²

2021

Lecture Notes in Earth System Sciences

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Predicting earthquakes is a long-desired goal. The main challenge is to identify precursory signals that reliably predict the impending earthquake. Since hydrological and hydrogeochemical properties and processes can be very sensitive to minute strains, the hope is that measurements from hydrological systems might record precursory rock deformation that would otherwise be undetectable. Of the many hundreds of studies, we review a subset to illustrate how signals can be challenging to interpret and highlight questions raised by observations—examples come from China, Japan, Taiwan, India, the USA, Russia, France, Italy and Iceland. All are retrospective studies. Some signals seem to have no other explanation than being precursory, however, rarely is enough data available to undertake a thorough analysis. Some hydrological precursors might be recording deformation events that are slower than traditional earthquakes (and hence usually harder to detect). Long times series of data are critical for both identifying putative precursors and assessing their origin and reliability.

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Section: Examplesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrologic Precursors

Wang¹,

Manga²

2021

Lecture Notes in Earth System Sciences

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“…In other words, according to the terminology used in this article, this complexity and these differences arise because of the uniqueness of the seismogenic structures. Martinelli and Dadomo (2018) also arrived to the idea that not all seismogenic structures behave in the same manner as reflected in the fluid-related precursors: "Not all earthquakes seem to be preceded by detectable crustal strain changes in the epicentral area and this could explain the lack of fluid -related precursors." Hayakawa et al (2018), searching for preseismic ionospheric perturbations found that "with earthquake depths of > 40 km (.…”

Section: Outlines Of a Possible Paradigm Shift In Precursory-based Ea...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Sensors designed to capture primary and/or induced precursory signals will measure a high number of parameters, combined with an array of seismographs detecting changes in background seismicity (Sammis and Sornette, 2002;Shebalin et al, 2006;Peresan, 2018) to recognize foreshock activity (Papadopoulos et al, 2018). Other sensors are destined to point out subtle changes of the physical parameters (e.g., temperature, mass-flux, and gas flow rate fluctuations) and composition of fluids (dissolved ions, dissolved gases, soil gas, CO 2 , CH 4 , He, H, radon, and thoron) (Zoran et al, 2012;Oh and Kim, 2015;Martinelli, 2020) circulating in the crust (e.g., Tsunogai and Wakita, 1995;Claesson et al, 2004;Hartman et al, 2005;Fu and Lee, 2018;Martinelli and Dadomo, 2018). Ground deformation and other space-monitorable atmospheric and ionospheric signals (e.g., Sgrigna et al, 2007;Hayakawa et al, 2018;Tramutoli et al, 2018a) might be considered to complete the ground-based monitoring system.…”

Section: Outlines Of a Possible Internationally Coordinated Research ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Precursor-Based Earthquake Prediction Research: Proposal for a Paradigm-Shifting Strategy

Szakács

2021

Front. Earth Sci.

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The article discusses the controversial topic of the precursor-based earthquake prediction, based on a personal perspective intending to stir the current still waters of the issue after twenty years have passed since the influential debate on earthquake prediction hosted by Nature in 1999. The article challenges the currently dominant pessimistic view on precursor-based earthquake prediction resting on the “impossible in principle” paradigm. Instead, it suggests that a concept-based innovative research strategy is the key to obtain significant results, i.e., a possible paradigm shift, in this domain. The basic concept underlying such a possible strategy is the “precursory fingerprint” of individual seismic structures derived from the uniqueness of the structures themselves. The aim is to find as many unique fingerprints as possible for different seismic structures worldwide, covering all earthquake typologies. To achieve this, a multiparameter approach involving all possible sensor types (physical, chemical, and biological) of the highest available sensitivity and artificial intelligence could be used. The findings would then be extrapolated to other similar structures. One key issue is the emplacement location of the sensor array in privileged “sensitive” Earth surface sites (such as volcanic conduits) where the signal-to-noise ratio is maximized, as suggested in the article. The strategy envisages three stages: experimental phase, validation, and implementation. It inherently could be a costly, multidisciplinary, international, and long-term (i.e., multidecade) endeavor with no guaranteed success, but less adventurous and societally more significant to the currently running and well-funded SETI Project.

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“…Documented responses include pre‐, co‐, and post‐seismic changes in groundwater levels, chemical composition, stable isotope ratios, temperature, stream flow, gas emanations, and liquefaction (Wang & Manga, 2010a, 2010b, 2021). Several reviews have compiled global observations of such hydrogeological and gas geochemical responses to earthquakes (e.g., Cicerone et al., 2009; Hartmann & Levy, 2005; Hauksson, 1981; King, 1986; King & Manga, 2018; Kopylova et al., 2022; Martinelli & Dadomo, 2018; Paudel et al., 2018; Roeloffs, 1988; Shi et al., 2013; Thomas, 1988; Toutain & Baubron, 1999; Wang et al., 2023; Woith, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Water Geochemistry and Stable Isotope Changes Record Groundwater Mixing After a Regional Earthquake in Northeast India

Kumar,

Manga,

Nair

et al. 2024

Geochem Geophys Geosyst

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Recorded earthquake‐induced changes in hydrogeological systems date back over 2,000 years. As a part of our ongoing hydrogeochemical monitoring effort to study such changes, we collected 406 groundwater samples twice a week between February 2021 and July 2023 from two bore wells in the Kopili fault zone of Northeast India. We analyzed stable isotope ratios (δ2H, δ18O) and dissolved element concentrations to obtain a 2.5‐year hydrogeochemical time series and responses to multiple regional earthquakes (Mw ≥ 3) within the monitored period. We find significant but transient anomalies in both the chemical and isotopic composition of groundwater at one of the observation wells (OW1) after the 2021 Assam Mw 6.4 earthquake, followed by prolonged alterations in the hydrochemistry at both wells. We do not identify any precursory changes. Using multivariate statistical techniques and analyzing compositional changes before and after the mainshock, we infer that the hydrochemical anomalies at OW1, representing an immediate response to the mainshock, can be attributed to the potential breach of a hydrological barrier. This, in turn, allowed the infiltration of new water into the OW1 aquifer, potentially sourced from the nearby Brahmaputra River. Subsequently, during the post‐anomaly period, the earthquake‐induced fracturing and the associated changes in permeability sustained a prolonged period of mixing between surface water and groundwater, resulting in newly formed hydrochemistry at both wells. Our findings highlight the dynamic nature of aquifer properties during earthquakes. Long‐term continuous evaluation of such changes may provide new insights into feedback between tectonics and fluid flow in the crust.

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Geochemical and Fluid‐Related Precursors of Earthquakes

Cited by 5 publications

References 103 publications

Hydrologic Precursors

Hydrologic Precursors

Precursor-Based Earthquake Prediction Research: Proposal for a Paradigm-Shifting Strategy

Water Geochemistry and Stable Isotope Changes Record Groundwater Mixing After a Regional Earthquake in Northeast India

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