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Uncertainty analysis and reduction is a crucial part of stochastic reservoir modelling and fluid flow simulation studies. Outcrop analogue studies are often employed to define reservoir model parameters but the analysis of uncertainties associated with sedimentological information is often neglected. In order to define uncertainty inherent in outcrop data more accurately, this paper presents geometrical and dimensional data from individual point bars and braid bars, from part of the low net:gross outcropping Tortóla fluvial system (Spain) that has been subjected to a quantitative and qualitative assessment. Four types of primary outcrop uncertainties are discussed: (1) the definition of the conceptual depositional model; (2) the number of observations on sandstone body dimensions; (3) the accuracy and representativeness of observed three-dimensional (3D) sandstone body size data; and (4) sandstone body orientation. Uncertainties related to the depositional model are the most difficult to quantify but can be appreciated qualitatively if processes of deposition related to scales of time and the general lack of information are considered. Application of the N 0 measure is suggested to assess quantitatively whether a statistically sufficient number of dimensional observations is obtained to reduce uncertainty to an acceptable level. The third type of uncertainty is evaluated in a qualitative sense and determined by accurate facies analysis. The orientation of sandstone bodies is shown to influence spatial connectivity. As a result, an insufficient number or quality of observations may have important consequences for estimated connected volumes. This study will give improved estimations for reservoir modelling.
Uncertainty analysis and reduction is a crucial part of stochastic reservoir modelling and fluid flow simulation studies. Outcrop analogue studies are often employed to define reservoir model parameters but the analysis of uncertainties associated with sedimentological information is often neglected. In order to define uncertainty inherent in outcrop data more accurately, this paper presents geometrical and dimensional data from individual point bars and braid bars, from part of the low net:gross outcropping Tortóla fluvial system (Spain) that has been subjected to a quantitative and qualitative assessment. Four types of primary outcrop uncertainties are discussed: (1) the definition of the conceptual depositional model; (2) the number of observations on sandstone body dimensions; (3) the accuracy and representativeness of observed three-dimensional (3D) sandstone body size data; and (4) sandstone body orientation. Uncertainties related to the depositional model are the most difficult to quantify but can be appreciated qualitatively if processes of deposition related to scales of time and the general lack of information are considered. Application of the N 0 measure is suggested to assess quantitatively whether a statistically sufficient number of dimensional observations is obtained to reduce uncertainty to an acceptable level. The third type of uncertainty is evaluated in a qualitative sense and determined by accurate facies analysis. The orientation of sandstone bodies is shown to influence spatial connectivity. As a result, an insufficient number or quality of observations may have important consequences for estimated connected volumes. This study will give improved estimations for reservoir modelling.
Upper Oligocene to lower Miocene deposits of the Tórtola fluvial system, Loranca Basin, central Spain, display a labyrinthine stratigraphic architecture comprising isolated sandstone bodies embedded in mudstone and siltstone. These sandstone bodies are subdivided into seven types, which are interpreted to have formed in rivers with different discharges, sediment yields, and channel planform patterns. On the basis of their characteristics and spatial distributions, four facies zones are defined. These formed a continuum along the Tórtola fluvial system profile, each being characterized by specific depositional conditions and (consequently) channel-pattern styles. Gravel-rich braided streams dominated Zone 1. Down gradient, these streams graded into wide, sand-dominated, braided streams of Zone 2, which contain large bedforms and were typified by significant discharge var- iations. Zone 3 comprises belts of mixed-load-dominated meandering and low-sinuosity channels. Zone 4 represents distal floodplain areas at the toe of the fluvial system. Depositional conditions in a facies zone varied between an upper and lower bound, or geomorphic threshold. A crossing of the upper or lower threshold is indicated by relatively sudden but orderly lateral and vertical changes in channel pattern that in turn reflect superposition of facies zones. A facies cycle is formed by superposition of two successive downstream facies zones. Superposition of facies zones is inferred to have been caused by changes insediment supply and hydraulic regime and consequently the regional gradient of the system. It is argued that the Tórtola fluvial system developed under a weak tectonic regime during the later stages of basin filling and was possibly affected by climatic changes. Changes in size of the facies zones typified the long-term development of the Tórtola fluvial system and determined the three-dimensional architecture of the succession.
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