MacArthur and Wilson's model of island diversity predicts an increase in the number of species until colonization and extinction are balanced at a long-term steady state. We appraise this model on an evolutionary time scale by molecular phylogenetic analysis of the colonization of the Lesser Antilles by small land birds. The pattern of accumulation of species with time, estimated by genetic divergence between island and source lineages, rejects a homogeneous model of colonization and extinction. Rather, our results suggest an abrupt, roughly 10-fold increase in colonization rate or a 90% mass extinction event 0.55 to 0.75 million years ago.MacArthur and Wilson's (1) equilibrium theory of biogeography explains the number of species on islands as representing a balance between colonization and extinction. Accordingly, the biota of an island reaches a steady state at which the appearance of new species equals the disappearance of residents. Lack (2) argued instead that colonization was not limiting and that the ecological space on islands was filled with established populations that resisted replacement by new colonists. Both theories hold that the number of species on an island should be stable over long periods, but they differ with respect to the rate of accumulation of species and the prediction of species turnover.